Climate scenario analysis and risk exposure assessments at high resolution
View Patent ↗A plurality of climate models for a variety of hazards and/or initial conditions to produce a collection of Hazard Exposure (Risk) Maps. The Hazard Exposure Maps are transformed to high resolution (and may be filtered) and convolved with auxiliary data related to one or more hazards. The now super resolution maps are input to a learning engine along with spatiotemporally harmonized historic events and active near real-time events to produce a calibrated model (Asset Level Exposure Risk Estimation Model) that utilizes the super resolution maps and asset location(s) to project risk for each asset. The projected risk may be provided to asset operators/owners, initiate signal alerts and other messages, invoke automated responses to protect/preserve assets. The risk results may also be grouped in risk valuation datasets.
1 . A computerized method in a real-time climate data processing system having an analyst interface, the method comprising:
generating, by at least one processor, a super-resolved hazard exposure map that improves the accuracy and resolution of climate risk analysis using super-resolution modeling and machine learning to yield high-resolution hazard maps and automated risk predictions not achievable by mental calculation, the generating comprising,
obtaining a first set of climate data at a defined resolution;
obtaining a timed or synchronized data file of a second set of climate data different from the first set of climate data and at a higher resolution compared to the first set of climate data;
generating a stream of output morph data items corresponding to each pixel at the higher resolution by interposing the second set of climate data at timed or synchronized up sampled pixels of the first set of climate data;
generating a spatially and temporally harmonized catalog of past climate events and a stream of current or near-term climate conditions, wherein said catalog and stream are used to continuously update the hazard exposure map in real-time;
training a learning engine based on the generating a stream of output morph data items and catalog to produce at least one super resolved high resolution exposure map;
applying a location of the asset to the at least one super resolved high resolution exposure map to determine an amount of risk to the asset; and
preparing a reporting view (analyst interface) based on said applying to produce a risk assessment for an analyst;
wherein:
the reporting view provides an interactive dashboard comprising at least: (i) a map centered on the asset's location with the risk results overlayed, and (ii) one or more adjustable model parameters that, when modified by the analyst, automatically update the risk results in near-real time;
the reporting view is communicated electronically to the analyst and onto a computer screen via a web page, email, or other electronic communication; and
the results reported comprise risk to the asset.
2 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the reporting view allows the analyst to allocate resources where most needed or highest investment return.
3 . The method according to claim 1 wherein such risk assessment is used for preparation for a highest investment return over a portfolio of assets.
4 . The method according to claim 1 wherein such risk assessment is utilized to more accurately model capacity of a power facility.
5 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein a response includes a transaction such as the trading of power and the risk assessment may be utilized to initiate the transactions automatically.
6 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the high resolution exposure map was super resolved via up-scaling to high resolution and applying auxiliary spatiotemporal climate data.
7 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein if the risk is above a predetermined threshold, then applying automated remediation measures to reduce the risk;
an allocation of resources applied to the asset based on rate of return.
8 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the reporting view comprises a list of personnel notified of the risk and/or remediation measures to be implemented.
9 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the resources applied to the assert are based on a highest investment return.
10 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the automated remediation measures comprise underwriting an insurance policy.
11 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein:
the asset location comprises a power system facility;
the automated remediation measures comprises a two-step process of backing up facility data and then at least partially shutting down the facility.
12 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the automated remediation measures comprises underwriting an insurance policy, backing up facility data, and shutting down the facility.
13 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the assessment comprises electrical capacity and the automated remediation measures comprises trading or purchase of power.
14 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the assessment comprises power capacity and the automated remediation measures comprises routing of power.
15 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein the risk assessment includes durability of the asset based on trends and/or patterns of risk factors.
16 . The method according to claim 15 , wherein the trends comprise trends associated with changing weather patterns.