Golf play outcome simulation modeling system
A golf tournament simulation method may include generating predicted hole scores for each hole of each round of a golf tournament. Historical shot data corresponding to a historical occurrence of one or more hole events may be utilized as weight to generate predicted outcomes of hole events for each hole. A score probability distribution may be assigned to the predicted outcomes to generate predicted hole scores. Simulations may be analyzed for predicted outcome probabilities such as win probability, cutline, or top-10 finish probability. The simulations may be updated during actual play by replacing predicted scores with actual scores. Predicted outcome probabilities may be updated based on the updated simulations updated to include the actual scores.
1 . A golf tournament simulation system comprising:
a processing unit and memory storing instructions that when executed cause the system to:
generate prediction outcome probabilities for participating players in a golf tournament based on a plurality of tournament simulations, stored in memory for update processing;
store, in memory, for each participating player, per-player in-memory simulation data comprising predicted hole scores for each hole across the plurality of tournament simulations;
update the prediction outcome probabilities at periodic intervals during actual tournament play by, at each interval, processing live scoring data received since a preceding interval, or responsive to receipt of live scoring data, by substituting, across the per-player in-memory simulation data for a player identified in the live scoring data, actual hole scores for corresponding predicted hole scores, computing, for each of the plurality of tournament simulations, predicted round scores and predicted tournament scores for the player, and updating the prediction outcome probabilities based on the computed scores;
associate each updated prediction outcome probability with a player ID and a time-stamp corresponding to the respective outcome probability; and
generate trending display data representative of changes in the prediction outcome probabilities over time configured for consumption by one or more applications comprising television broadcast applications or digital platform applications providing trending probability displays.
2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the prediction outcome probabilities comprise at least one of win probability, top-10 finish probability, cutline probability, or make-cut probability.
3 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the instructions when executed cause the system to update the prediction outcome probabilities at the periodic intervals, and wherein the periodic intervals are less than 5.
4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the instructions when executed cause the system to update the prediction outcome probabilities at the periodic intervals, and wherein the periodic intervals are less than 10 seconds.
5 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the instructions when executed cause the system to update the prediction outcome probabilities responsive to the receipt of live scoring data, and wherein the live scoring data comprises a hole score received each time a participating player completes a hole.
6 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the trending display data comprises probability changes over time including most recent probabilities for each player.
7 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more applications comprises a television broadcast application for live television broadcast of the golf tournament.
8 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more applications comprises a digital platform application comprising a betting platform.
9 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the instructions when executed further cause the system to publish to a database a machine-readable record containing the prediction outcome probabilities with player IDs and time-stamps, and wherein the machine-readable record is configured for consumption by one or more end use applications providing trending probability displays.
10 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the instructions when executed further cause the system to track most recent probabilities for each player to enable the trending display data.
11 . A golf tournament simulation system comprising:
a processing unit and memory storing instructions that when executed cause the system to:
execute simulations of a golf event to generate predictions with respect to play of participating players, the simulations being stored in memory as a plurality of tournament simulations for update processing:
store, in memory, for each participating player, per-player in-memory simulation data comprising predicted hole scores for each hole across the plurality of tournament simulations;
replace predicted hole scores with actual hole scores during actual play by, at periodic intervals, processing live scoring data received since a preceding interval, or responsive to receipt of live scoring data, by substituting, across the per-player in-memory simulation data for a player identified in the live scoring data, the actual hole scores for corresponding predicted hole scores and update one or more of the predictions including predicted round scores and predicted tournament scores based on the actual hole scores and remaining predicted hole scores for each of the plurality of tournament simulations;
compute prediction outcome probabilities from the updated predictions, and
output the prediction outcome probabilities for players with a player ID associated with each player and a time-stamp corresponding to the respective outcome probability to track most recent probabilities for each player and generate trending display data representative of changes in the prediction outcome probabilities over time configured for television broadcast or consumption by applications providing trending probability displays.
12 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed further cause the system to generate outcome probabilities comprising at least one of win probability, top-10 finish probability, cutline probability, or make-cut probability.
13 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed cause the system to update the prediction outcome probabilities at the periodic intervals, and wherein the periodic intervals are less than 15 seconds.
14 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed cause the system to update the prediction outcome probabilities responsive to the receipt of live scoring data, and wherein the live scoring data comprises a hole score received each time a participating player completes a hole.
15 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed cause updating the predictions to comprise:
summing predicted round scores, as updated, for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for competing players;
summing predicted round scores, as updated, for pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cutline;
including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of players updated to make cut; and
excluding predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of players updated to not make cut.
16 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the trending display data is configured for consumption by television broadcast applications and digital platform applications.
17 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed further cause the system to establish updated cutlines during actual play and dynamically change players predicted to make cut based on the updated cutlines.
18 . The system of claim 11 , wherein the instructions when executed further cause the system to publish to a database machine-readable records create-data files containing the prediction outcome probabilities with player IDs and time-stamps for consumption by end use applications.
19 . A method of generating trending probability displays for a golf tournament with a golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising memory storing instructions and a processing unit that executes the instructions, the method comprising:
generating prediction outcome probabilities for participating players in a golf tournament based on a plurality of tournament simulations, the simulations being stored in memory as a plurality of tournament simulations for update processing:
storing, in the memory, for each participating player, per-player in-memory simulation data comprising predicted hole scores for each hole across the plurality of tournament simulations:
updating the prediction outcome probabilities at periodic intervals during actual tournament play by, at each interval, processing live scoring data received since a preceding interval, or responsive to receipt of live scoring data, by substituting, across the per-player in-memory simulation data for a player identified in the live scoring data, actual hole scores for corresponding predicted hole scores, computing, for each of the plurality of tournament simulations, predicted round scores and predicted tournament scores for the player, and updating the prediction outcome probabilities based on the computed scores;
associating each updated prediction outcome probability with a player ID and a time-stamp corresponding to the respective outcome probability; and
generating trending display data representative of changes in the prediction outcome probabilities over time configured for consumption by one or more applications comprising television broadcast applications or digital platform applications providing trending probability displays.
20 . The method of claim 19 , further comprising publishing to a database a machine-readable record containing the prediction outcome probabilities with player IDs and time-stamps, wherein the machine-readable record is are configured for consumption by one or more end use applications providing trending probability displays.