Systems and methods for modifying hydrocarbon supply chains based on predicted hydrocarbon supply chain risk

1 . A system for hydrocarbon supply chain modification based on predicted hydrocarbon supply chain risk, the system comprising:

a computing device that includes a memory component and a processor;

a hydrocarbon supply chain network element monitoring system that includes at least one sensor for monitoring a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, wherein the at least one sensor may be configured as a flow sensor for determining at least one of the following: an amount of hydrocarbon stored, an amount of materials consumed in hydrocarbon extraction, or an amount of hydrocarbon extracted in a given time period;

hydrocarbon supply chain modification hardware for modifying at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network elements;

a hydrocarbon supply chain data memory;

a hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction output translator; and

a hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor configured to cause the system to perform at least the following:

identify a hydrocarbon supply chain for hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction, wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain includes the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements including at least one of the following: a hydrocarbon extraction site, a hydrocarbon refinement facility, a hydrocarbon transportation system, or a hydrocarbon refinement process;

receive, by the hydrocarbon supply chain data memory from the hydrocarbon supply chain network element monitoring system via data from the sensor, a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables for the hydrocarbon supply chain, wherein each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes data identifying at least one of the following: material supply or material demand, wherein the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables that affect at least one hydrocarbon supply chain network element of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements;

in response to determining a change to at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, identify, using at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, a limiting factor of an affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

predict, using the limiting factor, an estimated lower supply bound and an estimated upper demand bound corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

determine whether the estimated lower supply bound meets or exceeds the estimated upper demand bound;

in response to determining that the estimated upper demand bound exceeds the estimated lower supply bound, generate a risk profile corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

generate, using the risk profile, one or more hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers;

implement at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers using the hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction output translator, the hydrocarbon supply chain modification hardware, or both;

generating, by the computing device, a graphical user interface that displays in real time interactive visualization of supply chain risk profiles;

displaying, by the computing device, the graphical user interface comprising interactive virtual interfaces that allow a user selection to make changes to the supply chain risk profiles to predict changes in the supply of one or more products; and

in response to the user selection, displaying, by the computing device, the interactive virtual interfaces enable customization of a proposed hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers and enables a user to submit a request to implement the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers.

2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein:

the limiting factor includes a supply limiting factor and a demand limiting factor;

the estimated lower supply bound is calculated using the supply limiting factor; and

the estimated upper demand bound is calculated using the demand limiting factor.

3 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers include at least one of the following: submitting a new purchase order, updating an unfulfilled purchase order, changing a start node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing an end node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing a delivery stream of the hydrocarbon supply chain, or changing materials consumed, processed, manufactured, produced, transported, or used in the hydrocarbon supply chain.

4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein:

the hydrocarbon supply chain includes a delivery stream comprising a plurality of delivery stream network elements; and

the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables include, for each of the plurality of delivery stream network elements, an affecting network element variable that affects the delivery stream network element.

5 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the logic further causes the system to provide a visualization interface that enables customization of a proposed hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers and enables a user to submit a request to implement the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers.

6 . A method for modifying a hydrocarbon supply chain based on predicted hydrocarbon supply chain risk, the method comprising:

identifying, by a hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, a hydrocarbon supply chain for hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction, wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain includes

a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements including at least one of the following: a hydrocarbon extraction site, a hydrocarbon refinement facility, a hydrocarbon transportation system, or a hydrocarbon refinement process;

receiving, by a hydrocarbon supply chain data memory from a hydrocarbon supply chain network monitoring system that includes at least one sensor for monitoring a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables for the hydrocarbon supply chain, wherein each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes data identifying at least one of the following: material supply or material demand, wherein the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables that each affect at least one hydrocarbon supply chain network element of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, wherein the at least one sensor may be configured as a flow sensor for determining at least one of the following: an amount of hydrocarbon stored, an amount of materials consumed in hydrocarbon extraction, or an amount of hydrocarbon extracted in a given time period;

in response to determining a change to at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, identifying, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor and using at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, a first limiting factor of an affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

predicting, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor and using the first limiting factor, a first estimated lower supply bound and a first estimated upper demand bound corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

determining, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, whether the first estimated lower supply bound meets or exceeds the first estimated upper demand bound;

in response to determining that the first estimated upper demand bound exceeds the estimated lower supply bound, generating, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, a risk profile corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

generating, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor and using the risk profile, one or more hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers;

implementing at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers using a hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction output translator, hydrocarbon supply chain modification hardware for modifying at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, or both;

generating, by a computing device, a graphical user interface that displays in real time interactive visualization of supply chain risk profiles;

displaying, by the computing device, the graphical user interface comprising interactive virtual interfaces that allow a user selection to make changes to the supply chain risk profiles to predict changes in the supply of one or more products; and

in response to the user selection, displaying, by the computing device, the interactive virtual interfaces enable customization of a proposed hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers and enables a user to submit a request to implement the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers.

7 . The method of claim 6 , wherein:

the first limiting factor includes a supply limiting factor and a demand limiting factor;

the first estimated lower supply bound is calculated using the supply limiting factor;

and the first estimated upper demand bound is calculated using the demand limiting factor.

8 . The method of claim 7 , wherein receiving the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes receiving at least one of the following supply variables: material data, material inventory data, purchase orders data for raw materials, transportation data, warehouse data, material consumption data, production planning data, production infrastructure data, or supplier data and wherein receiving the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes receiving at least one of the following demand variables: historical sales data, consumer price index data, purchase order data, stock keeping unit data, market data, production infrastructure data, or material consumption data.

9 . The method of claim 6 , further comprising:

identifying, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor and using at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, a second limiting factor of the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

predicting, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor and using the second limiting factor, a second estimated lower supply bound and a second estimated upper demand bound corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

determining, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, whether the second estimated lower supply bound meets or exceeds the second estimated upper demand bound;

and in response to determining that the second estimated upper demand bound does not exceed the second estimated lower supply bound, generating, by the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, the risk profile corresponding to the affected network element.

10 . The method of claim 9 , wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers include at least one of the following: submitting a new purchase order, updating an unfulfilled purchase order, changing a start node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing an end node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing a delivery stream of the hydrocarbon supply chain, or changing materials consumed, processed, manufactured, produced, transported, or used in the hydrocarbon supply chain.

11 . The method of claim 6 , wherein:

the hydrocarbon supply chain includes a delivery stream comprising a plurality of delivery stream network elements; and

the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables include, for each of the plurality of delivery stream network elements, an affecting network element variable that affects the delivery stream network element.

12 . The method of claim 6 , further comprising, in response to determining that the first estimated upper demand bound does not exceed the first estimated lower supply bound, determining that there is no supply chain risk.

13 . The method of claim 12 , wherein the risk visualization includes a risk alert that corresponds to a predetermined risk category of the hydrocarbon supply chain.

14 . The method of claim 12 , wherein the risk visualization includes at least one of the following:

purchase orders data;

historical data;

projections of the hydrocarbon supply chain;

a risk alert; and

a risk mitigation lever.

15 . The method of claim 6 , wherein generating the risk profile includes generating a risk visualization.

16 . The method of claim 6 , wherein the risk profile includes information indicating at least one of the following: a nature of the risk profile, a probability of a negative consequence of the risk profile manifesting, or a severity of the negative consequence of the risk profile manifesting.

17 . A non-transitory computer-readable medium that stores logic that, when executed by a hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor, causes the hydrocarbon supply chain risk predictor to perform at least the following:

identify a hydrocarbon supply chain for hydrocarbon supply chain risk prediction, wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain includes a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain

network elements, each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements including at least one of the following: a hydrocarbon extraction site, a hydrocarbon refinement facility, a hydrocarbon transportation system, or a hydrocarbon refinement process;

receive, by a hydrocarbon supply chain data memory from a hydrocarbon supply chain network element monitoring system that includes at least one sensor for monitoring a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, a plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables for the hydrocarbon supply chain, wherein each of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes data identifying at least one of the following: material supply or material demand, wherein the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain variables includes hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables that affect at least one hydrocarbon supply chain network element of the plurality of hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, wherein the at least one sensor may be configured as a flow sensor for determining at least one of the following: an amount of hydrocarbon stored, an amount of materials consumed in hydrocarbon extraction, or an amount of hydrocarbon extracted in a given time period;

in response to determining a change to at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, identify, using at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables, a limiting factor of an affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

predict, using the limiting factor, an estimated lower supply bound and an estimated upper demand bound corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

determine whether the estimated lower supply bound meets or exceeds the estimated upper demand bound;

in response to determining that the estimated upper demand bound exceeds the estimated lower supply bound, generate a risk profile corresponding to the affected hydrocarbon supply chain network element;

generate, using the risk profile, one or more hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers;

implement at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers using a hydrocarbon supply chain risk output translator, hydrocarbon supply chain modification hardware for modifying at least one of the hydrocarbon supply chain network elements, or both;

generate a graphical user interface that displays in real time interactive visualization of supply chain risk profiles;

display the graphical user interface comprising interactive virtual interfaces that allow a user selection to make changes to the supply chain risk profiles to predict changes in the supply of one or more products; and

in response to the user selection, display the interactive virtual interfaces enable customization of a proposed hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers and enables a user to submit a request to implement the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers.

18 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein:

the limiting factor includes a supply limiting factor and a demand limiting factor;

the estimated lower supply bound is calculated using the supply limiting factor; and

the estimated upper demand bound is calculated using the demand limiting factor.

19 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the hydrocarbon supply chain risk mitigation levers include at least one of the following:

submitting a new purchase order, updating an unfulfilled purchase order, changing a start node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing an end node of the hydrocarbon supply chain, changing a delivery stream of the hydrocarbon supply chain, or changing materials consumed, processed, manufactured, produced, transported, or used in the hydrocarbon supply chain.

20 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein:

the hydrocarbon supply chain includes a delivery stream comprising a plurality of delivery stream network elements; and

the hydrocarbon supply chain network element variables include, for each of the plurality of delivery stream network elements, an affecting network element variable that affects the delivery stream network element.