Method and apparatus for risk management
View Patent ↗An integrated risk management tool includes a persistent object database to store information about actors (individuals and/or groups), physical surroundings, historical events and other information. The risk management tool also includes a decision support system that uses data objects from the database and advanced decision theory techniques, such as Bayesian Networks, to infer the relative risk of an undesirable event. As part of the relative risk calculation, the tool uses a simulation and gaming environment in which artificially intelligent actors interact with the environment to determine susceptibility to the undesired event. Preferred embodiments of the tool also include an open “plug-in” architecture that allows the tool to interface with existing consequence calculators. The tool also provides facilities for presenting data in a user-friendly manner as well as report generation facilities.
1. An apparatus for assessing a risk of a terrorist attack comprising:
a memory;
an input device;
a display device; and
a processor connected to the memory, the input device and the display device, the processor being configured to perform the steps of:
inputting information about a site of potential terrorist attack from a user;
constructing a model of the site based on the information input from the user;
accepting a designation from the user of a weapon and delivery point at the site;
determining an accessibility of the site to delivery of the weapon at the delivery point by determining a threat vector which is most likely the threat vector by which the weapon will be delivered and the likelihood of a successful delivery based on the model;
determining a probability that a terrorist attack using the weapon and at the delivery point will occur, the probability being based at least in part on a trigger event; and
calculating a risk based at least partially on the accessibility and probability.
2. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the risk is further based on a consequence calculation.
3. The apparatus of claim 2 , wherein the consequence calculation is performed by outputting data including model data to a consequence calculator plug-in and accepting consequence data from the plug-in.
4. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processor is further configured to perform the step of preparing a report including the probability, accessibility and risk.
5. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processor is further configured to perform the step of displaying a three dimensional representation of the most likely threat vector to the user.
6. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the risk is calculated using a Bayesian network.
7. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the trigger event is an historical event.
8. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the weapon is capable of killing a mammal.
9. The apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the site includes at least one building.
10. A method for assessing a risk of a terrorist attack comprising the steps of:
inputting information about a site of a potential terrorist attack from a user;
constructing a model of the site based on the input from the user;
accepting a designation from the user of a weapon and delivery point at the site;
determining an accessibility of the site by determining a threat vector which is a most likely threat vector by which the weapon will be delivered and the likelihood of a successful delivery based on the model;
determining a probability that a terrorist attack using the weapon and at the delivery point will occur, the probability being based at least in part on a trigger event; and
calculating a risk based at least partially on the accessibility and probability.
11. The method of claim 10 , wherein the risk is further based on consequence calculation.
12. The method of claim 11 , wherein the consequence calculation is performed by outputting data including model data to a consequence calculator plug-in and accepting consequence data from the plug-in.
13. The method of claim 10 , wherein the processor is further configured to perform the step of preparing a report including the probability, accessibility and risk.
14. The method of claim 10 , wherein the processor is further configured to perform the step of displaying a three dimensional representation of the most likely threat vector to the user.
15. The method of claim 10 , wherein the risk is calculated using a Bayesian network.
16. The method of claim 10 , wherein the trigger event is an historical event.
17. The method of claim 10 , wherein the weapon is capable of killing a mammal.
18. The method of claim 10 , wherein the site includes at least one building.