Method for managing risk in markets related to commodities delivered over a network

1. A computerized method for managing risk in a market related to electricity delivered over a network comprised of tradable network locations, comprising the steps of:

(1) a computer modeling locational prices of electricity in the market as a linear combination of congestion prices for a plurality of congestible transmission lines in the network, wherein said step of modeling locational prices comprises:

determining a set of distribution factors representing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network,

determining a plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible transmission lines at a prospective time, and

determining a pattern of spot locational prices in the network at the prospective time, wherein said pattern of spot locational prices is a function of said set of distribution factors and said plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible lines;

(2) the computer creating a portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors which includes:

selecting a portfolio of price risk instruments which represent the set of distribution factors describing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network and the available market for the price instruments; and

(3) the computer producing a combination of price risk instruments with respect to the set of distribution factors for the market in which an underlying position in the market is determined from:

(a) the spot locational prices determined in step (1), and

(b) the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors created in step (2), such that the difference between the underlying position in the market with respect to the set of distribution factors and the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors is calculated such that at least one amount of each of the price risk instruments are proportioned, thereby interlocking eventual locational prices and reducing an effect of the congestion prices for the plurality of congestible transmission lines on the locational prices of the electricity.

2. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the step of producing the combination of price risk instruments further includes the steps of:

creating a table of congestion events with respect to the tradable network locations;

populating the table with values for the relative impact on the locational price of each congestion event;

creating from the table a portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors;

assessing the risk of each of the future positions in the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors by assessing the number of congestion events that would result in a loss for the portfolio; and

determining from the assessment of risk which portfolio would result in the lowest risk.

3. The method according to claim 2 , wherein the step of creating a portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors includes selecting a portfolio y of price risk instruments, such that:

z′A−y′P′A= 0,

where A represents distribution factors describing the physics of power flows in the network, P represents the available market of price instruments, and z represents a market participant's underlying position in the market at the prospective time T, and wherein the portfolio includes a set of positions and primes denote transpositions.

4. The method according to claim 1 , wherein:

the step of determining a set of distribution factors representing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network further comprises: determining a matrix A of distribution factors describing the physics of electricity flows in the network, wherein said matrix A contains a column representing the effect of transmission losses on transfers of electricity and a column for each of the congestible transmission lines representing the percentage of an incremental flow of electricity that results from the transfer of electricity between a reference location and each tradable network location;

the step of determining a plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible transmission lines at a prospective time further comprises: determining a vector λ having values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible transmission lines at a prospective time T, wherein the vector λ contains one value of the price of electricity at a reference location and a value for the prices of congestion with respect to the reference location and each congestible transmission line; and

the step of determining a pattern of spot locational prices in the network at the prospective time further comprises: determining a matrix S representing a pattern of spot locational prices in the network at the prospective time T, wherein matrix S is determined by the formula:

S=Aλ.

5. A computer-readable medium bearing instructions for managing risk in a market related to electricity delivered over a network, said instructions being arranged to cause one or more processors upon execution thereby to perform the steps of:

(1) modeling locational prices of the electricity in the market as a linear combination of congestion prices for congestible lines in the network, wherein said step of modeling locational prices comprises:

determining a set of distribution factors representing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network,

determining a plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible transmission lines at a prospective time, and

determining a pattern of spot locational prices in the network at the prospective time, wherein said pattern of spot locational prices is a function of said set of distribution factors and said plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible lines;

(2) a computer creating a portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors which includes:

selecting a portfolio of price risk instruments which represent distribution factors describing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network and the available market of price instruments; and

(3) the computer producing a combination of price risk instruments for the market in which an underlying position in the market is determined from:

(a) the spot locational prices determined in step (1), and

(b) the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors created in step (2), such that the difference between the underlying position in the market with respect to the distribution factors and the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors is calculated such that at least one amount of each of the price risk instruments are proportioned, thereby interlocking eventual locational prices and reducing an effect of the congestion prices for the plurality of congestible transmission lines on the locational prices of the electricity.

6. A portfolio generating system and portfolio comprising:

a computer-based system configured to generate a portfolio having a plurality of price risk instruments by carrying out the following steps:

(1) modeling locational prices of electricity in the market as a linear combination of congestion prices for a plurality of congestible transmission lines in the network, wherein said step of modeling locational prices comprises:

determining a set of distribution factors representing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network,

determining a plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible transmission lines at a prospective time, and

determining a pattern of spot locational prices in the network at the prospective time, wherein said pattern of spot locational prices is a function of said set of distribution factors and said plurality of values representing the prices of congestion for the congestible lines;

(2) creating a portfolio of future positions which includes:

selecting a portfolio of price risk instruments which represent distribution factors describing the physics of the flow of electricity in the network and the available market of price instruments; and

(3) producing a combination of price risk instruments for the market in which an underlying position in the market is determined from:

(a) the spot locational prices determined in step (1), and

(b) the portfolio of future positions with respect to the set of distribution factors created in step (2), such that the difference between the underlying position in the market with respect to the set of distribution factors and the portfolio of future positions with respect to the distribution factors is calculated such that at least one amount of each of the price risk instruments are proportioned, thereby interlocking eventual locational prices and reducing an effect of the congestion prices for the plurality of congestible transmission lines on the locational prices of the electricity;

the portfolio comprising:

the plurality of price risk instruments for a market related to electricity delivered over a network,

wherein the price risk instruments y are proportioned such that z′A−y′P′A=0,

A represents distribution factors describing the physics of power flows in the network,

P represents the available market of price instruments,

z represents a market participant's underlying position in the market at a prospective time T, and

primes denote transpositions,

wherein said computer-based system comprises:

a communication mechanism for communicating information;

a processor coupled to the communication mechanism for processing information;

a dynamic storage device coupled to the communication mechanism for storing information and instructions; and

a static storage device coupled to the communication mechanism for storing static information and instructions.

7. The portfolio generating system of claim 6 , wherein a number of the price risk instruments is greater than a number of the at least one congestible lines.