Method and system for assessing and planning business operations utilizing rule-based statistical modeling
View Patent ↗The principles of the present invention include a system and method for assessing business activities. The method includes retrieving historical data associated with a business activity. At least one statistical model is generated based on the historical data. Knowledge is developed based on the statistical model(s). The knowledge is applied to at least one predetermined rule. Validity of the statistical model(s) is assessed based on the application of the knowledge using the predetermined rule(s). A valid statistical model is recommended to a user.
1. A method for assessing business activities, the method comprising:
retrieving historical data associated with a business activity, wherein the historical data comprises at least two parameters;
generating at least one statistical model based on the historical data, the generating step comprising performing regression analysis to discover the existence of correlations between the at least two parameters;
utilizing a correlation function to determine a level of confidence for each of the correlations;
creating knowledge, the knowledge comprising facts and assertions, based on the generated at least one statistical model;
applying the knowledge using at least one predetermined rule, the step of applying comprising determining whether the level of confidence is higher than a pre-defined correlation coefficient value, wherein a statistically valid correlation exists between the at least two parameters if the determined level of confidence is higher than the pre-defined correlation coefficient value;
assessing validity of the at least one statistical model based on said applying of the knowledge using the at least one predetermined rule, wherein the step of assessing the validity comprises determining a certainty factor that provides a measure of how well the valid statistical model may predict future trends based upon the historical data;
responsive to an assessment of validity of the at least one statistical model, recommending the at least one statistical model to a user;
wherein the recommending step comprises providing the certainty factor to the user; and
responsive to determining that the at least one statistical model is not valid, automatically generating a second statistical model.
2. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:
applying the recommended at least one statistical model to generate at least one of the following:
assessment data representative of the business activity, and
prediction data representative of a projected business activity.
3. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the at least one statistical model includes at least one of the following:
linear regression, non-linear regression, and time-series.
4. The method according to claim 3 , wherein the time-series model includes a random-walk model.
5. The method according to claim 1 , wherein said generating at least one statistical model includes:
first, generating a linear regression model;
second, generating a non-linear regression model; and
third, generating a time-series model.
6. The method of claim 1 , further comprising: automatically adjusting the statistical model after a user-specified time period.
7. A system for assessing business activities, the system comprising:
a database for storing historical data associated with a business activity, wherein the historical data comprises at least two parameters;
a computer-readable medium having stored thereon sequences of instructions;
a processor coupled to said database and said computer-readable medium, said processor executing the sequences of instructions and causing the processor to:
generate at least one statistical model based on the historical data, the generation comprising performing regression analysis to discover the existence of correlations between the at least two parameters;
utilize a correlation function to determine a level of confidence for each of the correlations;
create knowledge, the knowledge comprising facts and assertions, based on the generated at least one statistical model;
apply the knowledge using at least one predetermined rule, the application comprising determining whether the level of confidence is higher than a pre-defined correlation coefficient value, wherein a statistically valid correlation exists between the at least two parameters if the determined level of confidence is higher than the pre-defined correlation coefficient value;
assess validity of the at least one statistical model based on develop knowledge based on said application of the knowledge using the at least one predetermined rule to assess assess validity of the at least one statistical model based on said applying of the at least one predetermined rule;
wherein the assessment of the validity comprises determining a certainty factor that provides a measure of how well the valid statistical model may predict future trends based upon the historical data;
responsive to an assessment of validity of the at least one statistical model, recommend the at least one statistical model to a user;
wherein the recommendation comprises providing the certainty factor to the user; and
responsive to a determination that the at least one statistical model is not valid, automatically generate a second statistical model.
8. The system according to claim 7 , wherein said processor further:
applies the recommended at least one statistical model to generate at least one of the following:
assessment data representative of the business activity, and
prediction data representative of a projected business activity.
9. The system according to claim 7 , wherein the at least one statistical model includes at least one of the following:
linear regression, non-linear regression, and time-series.
10. The system according to claim 9 , wherein the time-series model includes a random-walk model.
11. The system according to claim 7 , wherein said generation of the at least one statistical model includes:
first, generation of a linear regression model;
second, generation of a non-linear regression model; and
third, generation of a time-series model.
12. The system of claim 7 , wherein the processor automatically adjusts the statistical model after a user-specified time period.
13. An article of manufacture for assessing business activities, the article of manufacture comprising:
at least one computer readable medium;
processor instructions contained on the at least one computer readable medium, the processor instructions configured to be readable from the at least one computer readable medium by at least one processor and thereby cause the at least one processor to operate as to:
retrieve historical data associated with a business activity, wherein the historical data comprises at least two parameters;
generate at least one statistical model based on the historical data, the generation comprising performing repression analysis to discover the existence of correlations between the at least two parameters;
utilize a correlation function to determine a level of confidence for each of the correlations;
create knowledge, the knowledge comprising facts and assertions, based on the generated at least one statistical models;
apply the knowledge using at least one predetermined rule, the application comprising determining whether the level of confidence is higher than a pre-defined correlation coefficient value, wherein a statistically valid correlation exists between the at least two parameters if the determined level of confidence is higher than the pre-defined correlation coefficient value;
an analyst component coupled to said statistics component, said analyst component initiating said statistics component to perform the statistical analysis on the historical data;
an inference engine coupled to said analyst component;
a database including at least one rule, the at least one rule being applied by said inference engine to assess validity of the at least one statistical model based on the application of the knowledge using the at least one predetermined rule, wherein the assessment of the validity comprises determining a certainty factor that provides a measure of how well the valid statistical model may predict future trends based upon the historical data;
responsive to an assessment of validity of the at least one statistical model, recommend the at least one statistical model to a user;
wherein the recommendation comprises providing the certainty factor to the user; and
responsive to a determination that the at least one statistical model is not valid, automatically generate a second statistical model.
14. The article of manufacture according to claim 13 , wherein said at least one statistical model includes at least one of the following:
linear regression, non-linear regression, and time series.
15. The article of manufacture of claim 13 , further comprising processor instructions contained on the at least one computer readable medium, the processor instructions configured to be readable from the at least one computer readable medium by at least one processor and thereby cause the at least one processor to operate as to automatically adjust the statistical model after a user-specified time period.