Method and business process for the estimation of erosion costs in assemble-to-order manufacturing operations
View Patent ↗A method for forecasting the component surpluses for a target planning period is provided. To begin this method, a planner first identifies each component required to produce a product. For each component, the planner defines a planned level and an uncancelable level. The planned level for a component is the quantity at which the component is expected to be available. The uncancelable level for a component is the quantity of the component that cannot be liquidated without charge. The planner also defines a vector of connect rates for the components. After the required data has been entered, an expected surplus is computed for each component. To compute a component's expected surplus, the component is assumed to be available at its uncancelable level. The remainder of the components are assumed to be available at their respective planned levels. The mean production for the component is computed and used, along with the uncancelable level the selected component and the vector of connect rates to compute the component's expected surplus. This computation is repeated for all components in turn.
1. A computer implemented method:
estimating an expected component surplus, wherein said estimating comprises
identifying a plurality of components required to produce a product;
defining a vector of connect rates for the components;
defining an uncancelable level for each of the components, each of the uncancelable levels defining a quantity of the each of the components below which the quantity of the each of the components cannot be liquidated without incurring a charge;
assuming that a selected one of the components is available at least at an uncancelable level of the uncancelable levels corresponding to the selected one of the components; and
computing the expected component surplus for the selected component using a mean production for the product, the uncancelable level and the vector of connect rates, wherein
the computing is performed by a computer.
2. The computer implemented method of claim 1 , the estimating further comprising:
defining a planned level for the each of the components, each of the planned levels defining a quantity at which a corresponding one of the components is expected to be available.
3. The computer implemented method of claim 2 , the estimating further comprising:
assuming that each of the remaining ones of the components is available at the planned level corresponding to the each of the remaining ones of the components, wherein the remaining ones of the components are ones of the components other than the selected one of the components.
4. The computer implemented method of claim 3 , the estimating further comprising:
using the planned levels in the computing the expected component surplus.
5. The computer implemented method of claim 4 , the estimating further comprising:
estimating the mean production for the product.