Generating a sales volume forecast
View Patent ↗A method for generating a sales volume forecast includes receiving user input specifying a hypothetical asking price and a future date and accessing, for each of multiple past time periods, historical data reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period. The method also includes determining a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price, accessing market data reflecting a future market price for the item associated with the specified future date, determining a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item, applying the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast, and providing the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.
1. A computer-implemented system for generating a sales volume forecast, the system comprising one or more computer systems operable to:
receive user input specifying a hypothetical asking price and a future date;
for each of a plurality of past time periods, access historical data reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period;
determine a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price;
access market data reflecting a future market price for the item, the future market price being associated with the specified future date;
determine a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item;
apply the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast; and
provide the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.
2. The system of claim 1 , further operable to:
receive user input specifying one of a plurality of enterprises for which historical data is accessible, wherein the historical data and the determined historical correlation are associated with the specified enterprise.
3. The system of claim 1 , further operable to receive user input specifying the item, the item being one of a plurality of items for which historical data is accessible.
4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the coinciding market prices on which price differences are based comprise expiration prices for futures contracts for the item.
5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the specified future date comprises a future time period.
6. The system of claim 1 , wherein the future market price for the item comprises a current price for futures contracts for the item set to expire in association with the specified future date.
7. The system of claim 1 , wherein:
the historical data is contained within a database system directly accessible to the one or more computers; and
the market data reflecting the future market price for the item is contained within one or more database systems associated with one or more electronic markets.
8. The system of claim 1 , further operable to use a mathematical regression technique to determine the historical correlation between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price.
9. The system of claim 1 , wherein the price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price is either actual or proportional to either the asking price or the coinciding market price.
10. A method for generating a sales volume forecast, comprising:
receiving user input specifying a hypothetical asking price and a future date;
for each of a plurality of past time periods, accessing historical data reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period;
determining a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price;
accessing market data reflecting a future market price for the item, the future market price being associated with the specified future date;
determining a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item;
applying the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast; and
providing the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.
11. The method of claim 10 , wherein the historical data and the determined historical correlation are associated with one of a plurality of enterprises for which historical data is accessible, the enterprise being specified by user input.
12. The method of claim 10 , further comprising receiving user input specifying the item, the item being one of a plurality of items for which historical data is accessible.
13. The method of claim 10 , wherein the coinciding market prices on which price differences are based comprise expiration prices for futures contracts for the item.
14. The method of claim 10 , wherein the specified future date comprises a future time period.
15. The method of claim 10 , wherein the future market price for the item comprises a current price for futures contracts for the item set to expire in association with the specified future date.
16. The method of claim 10 , wherein:
the historical data is contained within a directly accessible database system; and
the market data reflecting the future market price for the item is contained within one or more database systems associated with one or more electronic markets.
17. The method of claim 10 , wherein a mathematical regression technique is used to determine the historical correlation between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price.
18. The method of claim 10 , wherein the price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price is either actual or proportional to either the asking price or the coinciding market price.
19. Software for generating a sales volume forecast, the software being embodied in computer-readable media and when executed operable to:
receive user input specifying a hypothetical asking price and a future date;
for each of a plurality of past time periods, access historical data reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period;
determine a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price;
access market data reflecting a future market price for the item, the future market price being associated with the specified future date;
determine a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item;
apply the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast; and
provide the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.
20. The software of claim 19 , wherein the historical data and the determined historical correlation are associated with one of a plurality of enterprises for which historical data is accessible, the enterprise being specified by user input.
21. The software of claim 19 , operable to receive user input specifying the item, the item being one of a plurality of items for which historical data is accessible.
22. The software of claim 19 , wherein the coinciding market prices on which price differences are based comprise expiration prices for futures contracts for the item.
23. The software of claim 19 , wherein the specified future date comprises a future time period.
24. The software of claim 19 , wherein the future market price for the item comprises a current price for futures contracts for the item set to expire in association with the specified future date.
25. The software of claim 19 , wherein:
the historical data is contained within a directly accessible database system; and
the market data reflecting the future market price for the item is contained within one or more database systems associated with one or more electronic markets.
26. The software of claim 19 , operable to use a mathematical regression technique to determine the historical correlation between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price.
27. The software of claim 19 , wherein the price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price is either actual or proportional to either the asking price or the coinciding market price.
28. A system for generating a sales volume forecast, comprising:
means for receiving user input specifying a hypothetical asking price and a future date;
means for accessing, for each of a plurality of past time periods, historical data reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period;
means for determining a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price;
means for accessing market data reflecting a future market price for the item, the future market price being associated with the specified future date;
means for determining a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item;
means for applying the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast; and
means for providing the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.
29. A computer-implemented system for generating a sales volume forecast, the system comprising one or more computer systems operable to:
receive user input specifying a hypothetical asking price, a future date, and an item, the item being one of a plurality of items for which historical data is accessible;
for each of a plurality of past time periods, access historical data associated with an enterprise and reflecting a sales volume for an item over the past time period and a corresponding price difference between an asking price and a coinciding market price for the item, the price difference also being associated with the past time period, the coinciding market price comprising expiration prices for futures contracts for the item;
determine a historical correlation for the item between sales volume and price difference between asking price and coinciding market price, the historical correlation being associated with the enterprise;
access market data reflecting a future market price for the item, the future market price comprising a current price for futures contracts for the item set to expire in association with the specified future date;
determine a price difference between the specified hypothetical asking price and the future market price for the item;
apply the determined historical correlation to the determined price difference to generate a sales volume forecast; and
provide the generated sales volume forecast for access by a user.