Fair value model based system, method, and computer program product for valuing foreign-based securities in a mutual fund
A method for determining fair value prices of financial securities of international markets includes the steps of selecting a universe of securities of a particular international market; computing overnight returns of each security in the selected universe over a predetermined past period of time; selecting at least one return factor of a domestic financial market from a plurality of return factors; computing, for each selected return factor, the return factor's daily return over said predetermined past period of time; calculating, for each selected return factor, a return factor coefficient for each security in the selected universe by performing a time series regression to obtain the contribution of each return factor's return to the security's overnight return; and storing each calculated return factor coefficient in a data file; wherein the stored return factor coefficients can be used in conjunction with current return factor daily return values to predict current overnight returns for all securities in the selected universe of securities, which predicted current overnight returns can be used in conjunction with closing prices on said particular international market of each security of said selected universe to determine a fair value price of each security of the selected universe. A system and computer program product for implementing the method also are provided.
1. A method for determining fair value prices of financial securities of international markets, comprising the steps of:
selecting a universe of securities of a particular international market;
computing overnight returns of each security in the selected universe over a predetermined past period of time;
determining out-of-sample or back-testing performance of a plurality of return factors;
selecting at least one return factor of a domestic financial market from the plurality of return factors, based on at least the determined out-of-sample or back-testing performance;
computing, for each selected return factor, the return factor's daily return over said predetermined past period of time;
calculating, for each selected return factor, a return factor coefficient for each security in the selected universe by performing a time series regression to obtain the contribution of each return factor's return to the security's overnight return; and
storing each calculated return factor coefficient in a data file;
wherein the stored return factor coefficients can be used in conjunction with current return factor daily return values to predict current overnight returns for all securities in the selected universe of securities, which predicted current overnight returns can be used in conjunction with closing prices on said particular international market of each security of said selected universe to determine a fair value price of each security of said selected universe.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the step of selecting the universe of securities comprises the step of selecting securities from the group of substantially all relatively active securities in a selected international market.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the step of computing overnight returns uses historical price data to compute overnight returns of each said security over said predetermined past period of time.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein said plurality of return factors includes domestic market return, domestic sector return, exchange traded fund (ETF) return for said selected international market, and American Depositary Receipt (ADR) return for each security in said selected universe.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the step of selecting at least one return factor comprises the step of selecting at least two return factors.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient includes the step of adding a security price fluctuation factor into said time series regression.
7. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+β s s j +ε.
8. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+ε.
9. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β s ( s j +m )+ε.
10. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
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11. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.
12. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.
13. The method of claim 6 , wherein the step of calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+β e e+ε.
14. A system for determining fair value prices of financial securities of international markets, comprising:
means for selecting a universe of securities of a particular international market;
means for computing overnight returns of each security in the selected universe over a predetermined past period of time;
means for determining out-of-sample or back-testing performance of a plurality of return factors;
means for selecting at least one return factor of a domestic financial market from the plurality of return factors, based on at least the determined out-of-sample or back-testing performance;
means for computing, for each selected return factor, the return factor's daily return over said predetermined past period of time;
means for calculating, for each selected return factor, a return factor coefficient for each security in the selected universe by performing a time series regression to obtain the contribution of each return factor's return to the security's overnight return; and
means for storing each calculated return factor coefficient in a data file;
wherein the stored return factor coefficients can be used in conjunction with current return factor daily return values to predict current overnight returns for all securities in the selected universe of securities, which predicted current overnight returns can be used in conjunction with closing prices on said particular international market of each security of said selected universe to determine a fair value price of each security of said selected universe.
15. The system of claim 14 , wherein said means for selecting the universe of securities comprises means for selecting securities from the group of substantially all relatively active securities in a selected international market.
16. The system of claim 14 , wherein said means for computing overnight returns uses historical price data to compute overnight returns of each said security over said predetermined past period of time.
17. The system of claim 14 , wherein said plurality of return factors includes domestic market return, domestic sector return, exchange traded fund (ETF) return for said selected international market, and American Depositary Receipt (ADR) return for each security in said selected universe.
18. The system of claim 14 , wherein said means for selecting at least one return factor comprises means for selecting at least two return factors.
19. The system of claim 14 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient includes means for adding a security price fluctuation factor into said time series regression.
20. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+β s s j +ε.
21. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+ε.
22. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β s ( s j +m )+ε.
23. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
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24. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.
25. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.
26. The system of claim 19 , wherein said means for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+β e e+ε.
27. A computer program product for determining fair value prices of financial securities of international markets, comprising the following computer-executable instructions stored on a computer-readable storage medium:
computer-executable instructions for selecting a universe of securities of a particular international market;
computer-executable instructions for computing overnight returns of each security in the selected universe over a predetermined past period of time;
computer-executable instructions for determining out-of-sample or back-testing performance of a plurality of return factors;
computer-executable instructions for selecting at least one return factor of a domestic financial market from the plurality of return factors, based on at least the determined out-of-sample or back-testing performance;
computer-executable instructions for computing, for each selected return factor, the return factor's daily return over said predetermined past period of time;
computer-executable instructions for calculating, for each selected return factor, a return factor coefficient for each security in the selected universe by performing a time series regression to obtain the contribution of each return factor's return to the security's overnight return; and
computer-executable instructions for storing each calculated return factor coefficient in a data file;
wherein the stored return factor coefficients can be used in conjunction with current return factor daily return values to predict current overnight returns for all securities in the selected universe of securities, which predicted current overnight returns can be used in conjunction with closing prices on said particular international market of each security of said selected universe to determine a fair value price of each security of said selected universe.
28. The computer program product of claim 27 , wherein the instructions for selecting the universe of securities include instructions for selecting securities from the group of substantially all relatively active securities in a selected international market.
29. The computer program product of claim 27 , wherein the instructions for computing overnight returns uses historical price data to compute overnight returns of each said security over said predetermined past period of time.
30. The computer program product of claim 27 , wherein said plurality of return factors includes domestic market return, domestic sector return, exchange traded fund (ETF) return for said selected international market, and American Depositary Receipt (ADR) return for each security in said selected universe.
31. The computer program product of claim 27 , wherein the instructions for selecting at least one return factor include instructions for selecting at least two return factors.
32. The computer program product of claim 27 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient include instructions for adding a security price fluctuation factor into said time series regression.
33. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+β s s j +ε.
34. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β m m+ε.
35. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β s ( s j +m )+ε.
36. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r
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=
{
β
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m
m
+
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s
s
j
+
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,
if
m
≤
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s
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+
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if
m
>
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37. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.
38. The computer program product of claim 32 , wherein the instructions for calculating a return factor coefficient comprises solving the equation:
r i =β e e+ε.