Managing and predicting risk for computer devices using exposure management techniques
View Patent ↗Methods, systems, and articles of manufacture consistent with the present invention provide for managing and predicting risk for computer-based systems. Information about a computer-based system is asynchronously received. A risk level at which the computer-based system operates is calculated based on the received information.
1. A method in a data processing system having a program, the method comprising the steps performed by the program of:
asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;
calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;
calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and
calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,
wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and
wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula:
risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,
where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.
2. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising the step of outputting the calculated risk level.
3. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.
4. The method according to claim 1 , wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.
5. The method according to claim 4 , wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously; and wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.
6. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.
7. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.
8. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.
9. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising the step of:
determining a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.
10. The method according to claim 9 , further comprising the step of:
outputting the difficulty value.
11. The method according to claim 9 , further comprising the step of:
determining a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.
12. The method according to claim 11 , further comprising the step of:
outputting the cost.
13. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising the steps of:
calculating at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information; and
trending the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.
14. A computer-readable storage medium containing instructions that cause a data processing system having a program to perform a method comprising the steps performed by the program of:
asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;
calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;
calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and
calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,
wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and
wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula:
risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,
where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.
15. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , further comprising the step of outputting the calculated risk level.
16. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.
17. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.
18. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 17 , wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously; and
wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.
19. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.
20. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.
21. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.
22. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , further comprising the step of:
determining a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.
23. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 22 , further comprising the step of:
outputting the difficulty value.
24. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 22 , further comprising the step of:
determining a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.
25. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 24 , further comprising the step of:
outputting the cost.
26. The computer-readable storage medium according to claim 14 , further comprising the steps of:
calculating at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information; and
trending the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.
27. A data processing system comprising:
a memory comprising a program that asynchronously receives information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information, calculates a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information, calculates an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information, and calculates a confidence level of the exposure level, wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula:
risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,
where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system; and
a processing unit that runs the program.
28. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the program further outputs the calculated risk level.
29. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the confidence level is increased each time the exposure level for the computer-based system is calculated and exceeds a predetermined value.
30. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein a rule engine is used to calculate the exposure level, the rule engine asynchronously receiving the information about the computer-based system as an input, and outputting the exposure level as an output.
31. The data processing system according to claim 30 , wherein the rule engine comprises a plurality of rule engines each operating asynchronously; and wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure levels output from at least one of the rule engines.
32. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the computer-based system is at least one of a data processing system, a component of a data processing system, and a computer program.
33. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the risk level is published to a network connected to the data processing system.
34. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the received information comprises at least one of fault information, hardware configuration information, and software configuration information about the computer-based system.
35. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the program further determines a difficulty value for reducing the exposure level.
36. The method according to claim 35 , wherein the program further outputs the difficulty value.
37. The data processing system according to claim 35 , wherein the program further determines a cost associated with reducing the exposure level.
38. The data processing system according to claim 37 , wherein the program further outputs the cost.
39. The data processing system according to claim 27 , wherein the program further calculates at least a second risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information, and trends the risk level and the at least second risk level by calculating a moving average of the risk levels for the computer-based system.
40. A data processing system comprising:
means for asynchronously receiving information about a computer-based system by subscribing to the information;
means for calculating a risk level at which the computer-based system operates based on the received information;
means for calculating an exposure level to failure of the computer-based system based on the received information; and
means for calculating a confidence level of the exposure level,
wherein the risk level is calculated based on the exposure level and confidence level, and
wherein the risk level is calculated using the formula:
risk level=exposure level*confidence level/a mitigating factor,
where the mitigating factor is a value associated with the computer-based system.