Dynamic pari-mutuel market
View Patent ↗The present invention provides a method of speculating on a future event or the value of an asset in a market. The speculating may take the form of trading, hedging or wagering. A plurality of speculations on the outcome of the future event is received. For each one of the speculations in the market, the status of the speculations at the time that the speculation was received in the market is recorded. After a time period for receiving speculations in the market has closed, the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation is calculated using a computer. The pari-mutuel payoff depends at least in part on the status of speculations at the time that the speculation was received in the market.
1. A computerized method of speculating on a future event in a market, the method comprising:
presenting a user interface for speculating in the market;
electronically identifying a plurality of initial wagers on the outcome of the future event;
receiving, through the user interface, a plurality of speculation wagers on the outcome of said future event, wherein the speculation wagers are wagers received after the plurality of initial wagers;
electronically associating, using a processing device, a real time market status for each of the speculation wagers at the time the given speculation wager is received, wherein said real time market status is a factor of a price function that determines: (1) at any given instant in time at or before the future event; and (2) for each respective possible outcome of the future event, the price for a desired number of shares of a payoff for that outcome should that outcome occur, wherein the payoff is a pari-mutuel payoff, wherein the market includes an electronic aftermarket for trading said shares; and
after the occurrence of the future event:
identifying each correct speculation wager from the plurality of speculation wagers received;
identifying a wager or shares amount for each correct speculation wager; and
utilizing the price function and the wager or shares amount to electronically calculate, using the processing device, the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager, based on the associated real time market status at the time the speculation wager was received.
2. The method of claim 1 wherein the price function depends on the relative number of shares purchased for each respective possible outcome of said future event, and/or the relative amount of money speculated on each respective possible outcome of said future event.
3. The method of claim 2 wherein the money received from all incorrect speculation wagers is redistributed to the correct speculation wager, and the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager on the outcome of said future event comprises a refund of the amount of the correct speculation wager plus a proportion of the money received and redistributed from all incorrect speculation wagers.
4. The method of claim 3 , wherein the proportion in the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager is equal to the proportion of the number of shares corresponding to the correct speculation wager to the total number of shares corresponding to all correct speculation wagers.
5. The method of claim 1 wherein said electronic aftermarket permits said shares to be traded before said future event occurs.
6. The method of claim 5 wherein the electronic aftermarket permits said shares to be traded using a limit price.
7. The method of claim 3 wherein the market includes a first electronic aftermarket for trading said shares and a second electronic aftermarket for trading said refunds.
8. The method of claim 7 wherein said first and second electronic aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to be traded before said future event occurs.
9. The method of claim 8 wherein the first and second electronic aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to be traded using a limit price.
10. The method of claim 6 wherein a combined electronic aftermarket permits a trader to trade both shares and refunds.
11. The method of claim 1 wherein the market receives a payment before money is redistributed to correct speculation wagers.
12. The method of claim 1 wherein said speculating comprises trading and said plurality of speculation wagers comprises a plurality of trades.
13. The method of claim 1 wherein said speculating comprises hedging or insuring, or some combination thereof.
14. A networked computer system facilitating speculations on a future event, the system comprising:
one or more client computers connectable to a network;
one or more server computers, connectable to the network, for facilitating speculations using the client computers; and
a software program stored on one of said server computers which, when executed, causes said networked computer system to carry out a method of speculating on a future event, the method comprising:
identifying a plurality of initial wagers on the outcome of the future event;
receiving a plurality of speculation wagers on the outcome of said future event, wherein the speculation wagers are wagers received after the plurality of initial wagers;
for each of the speculation wagers, associating a real time market status at the time that the speculation wager is received in said networked computer system, wherein said real time market status is a factor of a price function that determines: (1) at any given instant in time at or before the future event; and (2) for each respective possible outcome of said future event, the price for a desired number of shares of a payoff for that outcome should that outcome occur, wherein the payoff is a pari-mutuel payoff, wherein the market includes an electronic aftermarket for trading said shares; and
after the occurrence of the future event:
identifying each correct speculation wager from the plurality of speculation wagers received;
identifying a wager or shares amount for each correct speculation wager; and
utilizing the price function and the wager or shares amount to calculate the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager, based on the associated real time market status at the time the speculation wager was received.
15. The computer system of claim 14 wherein the price function depends on the relative number of shares purchased for each respective possible outcome of said future event, and/or the relative amount of money speculated on each respective possible outcome of said future event.
16. The computer system of claim 15 wherein the money received from all incorrect speculation wagers is redistributed to the correct speculation wagers, and the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager on the outcome of said future event comprises a refund of the amount of the correct speculation wager plus a proportion of the money received and redistributed from all incorrect speculation wagers.
17. The computer system of claim 16 wherein the proportion in the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager is equal to the proportion of the number of shares corresponding to the correct speculation wager to the total number of shares corresponding to all correct speculation wagers.
18. The computer system of claim 14 wherein said aftermarket permits said shares to be traded before said future event occurs.
19. The computer system of claim 18 wherein the aftermarket permits said shares to be traded using a limit price.
20. The computer system of claim 16 wherein the computer system includes a first aftermarket for trading said shares and a second aftermarket for trading said refunds.
21. The computer system of claim 20 wherein said first and second aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to be traded before said future event occurs.
22. The computer system of claim 19 wherein said first and second aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to traded using a limit price.
23. The computer system of claim 19 wherein a combined aftermarket in the computer system permits a trader to trade both shares and refunds.
24. The computer system of claim 14 wherein the operator of the computer system receives a payment before money is redistributed to correct speculation wagers.
25. The computer network of claim 14 wherein said speculating comprises trading and said plurality of speculation wagers comprises a plurality of trades.
26. The computer network of claim 14 wherein said speculating comprises hedging or insuring, or some combination thereof.
27. A computer usable medium storing a computer program which, when executed on a computer, causes the computer to execute a method of speculating on a future event, the method comprising:
identifying a plurality of initial wagers on the outcome of the future event;
receiving a plurality of speculation wagers on the outcome of said future event in a market, wherein speculation wagers are wagers received after the plurality of initial wagers;
for each of the speculation wagers, associating a real time market status at the time that the speculation wager is received in said market, wherein said real time market status is a factor of a price function that determines; (1) at any given instant in time at or before the future event; and (2) for each respective possible outcome of said future event, the price for a desired number of shares of a payoff for that outcome should that outcome occur, wherein the payoff is a pari-mutuel payoff, wherein the market includes an electronic aftermarket for trading said shares;
after the occurrence of the future event:
identifying each correct speculation wager from the plurality of speculation wagers received;
identifying a wager or shares amount for each correct speculation wager; and
utilizing the price function and the wager or shares amount to calculate the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager, based on the associated real time market status at the time the speculation wager was received.
28. The computer usable medium of claim 27 wherein the money received from all incorrect speculation wagers is redistributed to the correct speculation wagers, and the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager on the outcome of said future event comprises a refund of the amount of the correct speculation wager plus a proportion of the money received and redistributed from all incorrect speculation wagers.
29. The computer usable medium of claim 27 wherein the proportion in the pari-mutuel payoff for each correct speculation wager is equal to the proportion of the number of shares corresponding to the correct speculation wager to the total number of shares corresponding to all correct speculation wagers.
30. The computer usable medium of claim 27 wherein said aftermarket permits said shares to be traded before said future event occurs.
31. The computer usable medium of claim 30 wherein said aftermarket permits said shares to be traded using a limit price.
32. The computer usable medium of claim 28 wherein the market includes a first aftermarket for trading said shares and second aftermarket for trading said refunds.
33. The computer usable medium of claim 32 wherein said first and second aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to be traded before said future event occurs.
34. The computer usable medium of claim 33 wherein the first and second aftermarkets permit said shares and said refunds to be traded using a limit price.
35. The computer usable medium of claim 34 wherein a combined aftermarket permits a trader to trade shares using a limit price before said future event occurs.
36. The computer usable medium of claim 27 wherein said speculating comprises trading and said plurality of speculation wagers comprises a plurality of trades.
37. The computer usable medium of claim 27 wherein said speculating comprises hedging or insuring, or some combination thereof.