Fuel-cell power generation system and control method therefor

1. A fuel-cell power generation system including a fuel-cell power generator adapted to generate electricity to be supplied to an electrical appliance, said system comprising:

power measurement means for measuring an actual power-consumption value in the appliance;

power-consumption estimation means for estimating a future power-consumption value over a time-period after a point in time according to a neural network model using, as an input value, the actual power consumption value before the point in time, measured by said power measurement means; and

operation control means for initiating a start-up operation of the fuel-cell power generator at a point in time before the estimated future power-consumption value initially becomes greater than a lower limit of output power of the fuel-cell power generator, by a time period necessary to activate the fuel-cell power generator, when the estimated future power consumption value estimated by said power-consumption estimation means is successively greater than the lower limit of output power for a given time period.

2. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 1 , wherein said power-consumption estimation means includes:

estimation-reference-data holding means for holding the actual power-consumption value measured before the point in time, as estimation reference data;

neuro-model-based estimation means for estimating the future power-consumption value over the time-period after the point in time, wherein the neural network model is included in said neuro-model-based-estimation means and uses the estimation reference data as the input value;

learning-control-reference-data holding means for holding an actual power-consumption value measured by said power measurement means in a same time period as that of the estimated future power-consumption value, as learning-control reference data; and

neuro-model learning-control means for correcting a weighting factor of the neural network model by minimizing a difference between the learning-control reference data and the estimated future power-consumption value estimated by the neuro-model-based estimation means.

3. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 1 ,

wherein said operation control means is operable to, when the estimated future power-consumption value provided from said power-consumption estimation means is successively less than the lower limit of output power for a given time-period, initiate a stop operation of the fuel-cell power generator at a point in time when the estimated future power-consumption value initially becomes less than the lower limit of output power.

4. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 1 , wherein said power measurement means is operable to, when the actual power-consumption value in the electrical appliance is greater than an upper limit of the output power of the fuel-cell power generator, measure the upper limit as a substitute for the actual power-consumption value.

5. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 1 , further comprising:

hot-water-supply measurement means for measuring an actual hot-water supply amount from a hot-water appliance adapted to supply hot water using the fuel-cell power generator; and

hot-water-supply-amount estimation means for estimating a future hot-water supply amount over a hot-water time-period after a hot-water point in time, in accordance with the actual hot-water supply amount,

wherein said operation control means is operable to control the operation of the fuel-cell power generator in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value and the estimated future hot-water supply amount.

6. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 5 , wherein said hot-water-supply-amount estimation means includes:

estimation-reference-data holding means for holding the actual hot-water supply amount measured before the hot-water point in time, as estimation reference data;

neuro-model-based estimation means for estimating the future hot-water supply amount over the hot-water time period after the hot-water point in time, according to a neural network model using the estimation reference data as an input value;

learning-control-reference-data holding means for holding an actual hot-water supply amount measured by said hot-water-supply measurement means in a same time period as that of the estimated future hot-water supply amount, as learning-control reference data; and

neuro-model learning-control means for learning-controlling the neural network model in accordance with the learning-control reference data and the estimated future hot-water supply amount.

7. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 5 ,

wherein said operation control means is operable to

estimate an accumulative hot-water storage amount to be accumulated from a current hot-water storage amount, in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value from said power-consumption estimation means and the estimated future hot-water supply amount from said hot-water-supply-amount estimation means, and

adjust the output power of the fuel-cell power generator to prevent the estimated accumulative hot-water storage amount from becoming greater than a predetermined maximum allowable hot-water storage amount.

8. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 5 ,

wherein said operation control means is operable to estimate an accumulative hot-water storage amount to be accumulated from a current hot-water storage amount, in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value from said power-consumption estimation means and the estimated future hot-water supply amount from said hot-water-supply-amount estimation means, and

wherein when the estimated accumulative hot-water storage amount is greater than a predetermined maximum allowable hot-water storage amount, said operation control means is operable to perform a correction operation of reducing the estimated future power-consumption value, and further estimating an accumulative hot-water storage amount to be accumulated from the current hot-water storage amount, in accordance with the corrected estimated future power-consumption value and the estimated future hot-water supply amount.

9. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 5 ,

wherein said operation control means is operable to estimate an accumulative hot-water storage amount to be accumulated from a current hot-water storage amount, in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value from said power-consumption estimation means and the estimated future hot-water supply amount from said hot-water-supply-amount estimation means, and

wherein when the estimated accumulative hot-water storage amount is greater than a predetermined maximum allowable hot-water storage amount, and the estimated future power-consumption value provided from said power-consumption estimation means is successively less than the lower limit of the output power for a predetermined time-period, said operation control means is operable to initiate a stop operation of the fuel-cell power generator at a point in time when the estimated accumulative hot-water storage amount becomes greater than the predetermined maximum allowable hot-water storage amount.

10. The fuel-cell power generation system as defined in claim 5 ,

wherein said operation control means is operable to estimate an accumulative hot-water storage amount to be accumulated from a current hot-water storage amount, in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value from said power-consumption estimation means and the estimated future hot-water supply amount from said hot-water-supply-amount estimation means, and

wherein when the estimated accumulative hot-water storage amount is greater than a predetermined maximum allowable hot-water storage amount, and the estimated future power-consumption value provided from said power-consumption estimation means is successively greater than the lower limit of output power for a predetermined time-period, said operation control means is operable to initiate a startup operation of the fuel-cell power generator at a point in time before the estimated future power-consumption value initially becomes greater than the lower limit of output power, by a time-period necessary to activate the fuel-cell power generator.

11. A method for controlling a fuel-cell power generation system which includes a fuel-cell power generator adapted to generate electricity to be supplied to an electrical appliance, said method comprising:

measuring an actual power-consumption value in the appliance;

estimating a future power-consumption value over a time-period after a point in time according to a neural network model using, as an input value, the actual power-consumption value before the point in time; and

initiating a start-up operation of the fuel-cell power generator at a point in time before the estimated future power-consumption value initially becomes greater than a lower limit of output power of the fuel-cell power generator, by a time period necessary to activate the fuel-cell power generator, when the estimated future power-consumption value estimated in said estimating operation is successively greater than the lower limit of output power for a given time period.

12. The method as defined in claim 11 , further comprising:

measuring an actual hot-water supply amount from a hot-water appliance adapted to supply hot water using the fuel-cell power generator; and

estimating a future hot-water supply amount over a hot-water time-period after a hot-water point in time in accordance with the actual hot-water supply amount,

wherein said initiating operation includes controlling operation of the fuel-cell power generator in accordance with the estimated future power-consumption value obtained in said estimating a future power consumption operation and the estimated future hot-water supply amount obtained in said estimating a future hot-water-supply-amount operation.