Apparatus and method for improved forecasting
A computer-readable medium to direct a computer to function in a specified manner includes executable instructions to: generate a data series characterizing data values; identify any unreliable pattern present in the data series; and determine if a forecast should be made for the unreliable pattern.
1 . A computer-readable medium to direct a computer to function in a specified manner, comprising executable instructions to:
generate a data series characterizing data values;
identify any unreliable pattern present in the data series; and
determine if a forecast should be made for the unreliable pattern.
2 . The computer-readable medium of claim 1 , wherein the executable instructions to identify includes executable instruction to detect at least one of an outlier pattern, a step change pattern, and a random behavior pattern.
3 . The computer-readable medium of claim 2 , wherein the executable instructions to identify includes executable instructions to apply a statistical test to the data series.
4 . The computer-readable medium of claim 3 , wherein the statistical test is selected from a Tukey test, a Standard Deviation test, a Runs test, an Autocorrelation test, and a Mean Squared Successive Difference test
5 . The computer-readable medium of claim 1 , further comprising executable instructions to report an alert of the unreliable pattern.
6 . The computer-readable medium of claim 5 , wherein the executable instructions to report an alert include executable instructions to generate an email alert.
7 . The computer-readable medium of claim 5 , wherein the executable instructions to report an alert include executable instructions to present a visual indication of an unreliable pattern.
8 . A computer implemented method of processing data, comprising:
creating data values;
identifying an unreliable pattern in the data values; and
determining if a forecast should be made for the unreliable pattern.
9 . The method of claim 8 , wherein the unreliable pattern is selected from an outlier pattern, a step change pattern, and a random behavior pattern.
10 . The method of claim 9 , wherein identifying an unreliable pattern includes applying statistical tests to the data values.
11 . The method of claim 10 , wherein the statistical test is selected from a Tukey test, a Standard Deviation test, a Runs test, an Autocorrelation test, and a Mean Squared Successive Difference test.
12 . The method of claim 8 , further comprising informing the user of the unreliable pattern.
13 . The method of claim 12 , wherein informing the user of the unreliable pattern includes sending an email.
14 . The method of claim 12 , wherein informing the user of the unreliable pattern includes producing a visual indication of an unreliable pattern.