Trusted decision support system and method
Methods and apparatus for providing a comprehensive decision support system to include predictions, recommendations with consequences and optimal follow-up actions in specific situations are described. Data is obtained from multiple disparate data sources, depending on the information deemed necessary for the situation being modeled. Some embodiments perform complex systems modeling including performing massive correlative analyses of the data obtained from the multiple disparate data sources with current situational data obtained regarding the situation for which the decision support process is being utilized. The decision support system provides a prediction or predictions and a recommendation or a choice of recommendations based on the correlative analysis and/or other analyses. In some embodiments the decision support system provides possible consequences that could result from a recommendation. In other embodiments the decision support system provides a list of tasks for acting upon a recommendation. Also described are methods and apparatus for developing application specific decision support models. The decision support model development process may include identifying multiple disparate data sources for retrieval of related information, selection of classification variables to be retrieved from the data sources, assignment of weights to each classification variable, selecting and/or defining rules, and selecting and/or defining analysis functions.
1 . A data analysis system, the system comprising:
a database comprising previously received data from a plurality of sources; and
an electronic device configured to receive current data from at least one of the plurality of sources, to compare the current data and the previously received data, and to provide a recommended action and outcome information for the recommended action based at least in part on the comparison.
2 . The system of claim 1 , further comprising a statistical analysis engine configured to perform statistical analysis on the received current data.
3 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the system is configured to store the recommended action in a library of recommended actions, and to store the received current data, wherein the stored recommended action and the stored received data are associated, and wherein the recommended action is based at least in part on one or more previously stored recommended actions.
4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the system is further configured to store actual outcomes of performed previously recommended actions, and the recommended action is based at least in part on the stored actual outcomes.
5 . The system of claim 1 , further comprising a statistical analyses engine configured to be programmed with one or more models, wherein each model comprises mathematical instructions for processing the received current data.
6 . The system of claim 5 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise weights assigned to received current data according to at least one of the data source from which the received current data was received and the age of the received current data.
7 . The system of claim 5 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise at least one of fuzzy logic instructions, Bayesian analyses instructions, neural network analyses instructions, probability calculation instructions, mean calculation instructions, confidence interval calculation instructions, Z-test instructions, T-test instructions, autoregressive modeling instructions, and residual analysis instructions for multiple regression.
8 . A data analysis system, the system comprising:
a database comprising previously received data from a plurality of sources; and
an electronic device configured to receive current data from at least one of the plurality of sources, to analyze the current data, and to predict an outcome based at least in part on the previous data and the current data.
9 . The system of claim 8 , further comprising a statistical analysis engine configured to perform statistical analysis on the received current data.
10 . The system of claim 8 , wherein the system is configured to store the predicted outcome in a library of predicted outcomes, and to store the received current data, wherein the stored predicted outcome and the stored received data are associated, and wherein the predicted outcome is based at least in part on one or more previously stored predicted outcomes.
11 . The system of claim 8 , wherein the system is further configured to store actual outcomes associated with performed previously received data, and the predicted outcome is based at least in part on the stored actual outcomes.
12 . The system of claim 8 , further comprising a statistical analyses engine configured to be programmed with one or more models, wherein each model comprises mathematical instructions for processing the received current data.
13 . The system of claim 12 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise weights to be assigned to received current data according to at least one of the data source from which the received current data was received and the age of the received current data.
14 . The system of claim 12 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise at least one of fuzzy logic instructions, Bayesian analyses instructions, neural network analyses instructions, probability calculation instructions, mean calculation instructions, confidence interval calculation instructions, Z-test instructions, T-test instructions, autoregressive modeling instructions, and residual analysis instructions for multiple regression.
15 . A data analysis system, the system comprising:
a database comprising previously received data from a plurality of sources; and
an electronic device configured to receive current data from at least one of the plurality of sources, to compare the current data and the previously received data, and to predict a future outcome based at least in part on the determination.
16 . The system of claim 15 , further comprising a statistical analysis engine configured to perform statistical analysis on the received current data.
17 . The system of claim 15 , wherein the system is configured to store the predicted outcome in a library of predicted outcomes, and to store the received current data, wherein the stored predicted outcome and the stored received data are associated, and wherein the predicted outcome is based at least in part on one or more previously stored predicted outcomes.
18 . The system of claim 15 , wherein the system is further configured to store actual outcomes associated with previously received data, and the predicted outcome is based at least in part on the stored actual outcomes.
19 . The system of claim 15 , further comprising a statistical analyses engine configured to be programmed with one or more models, wherein each model comprises mathematical instructions for processing the received current data.
20 . The system of claim 19 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise weights to be assigned to received current data according to at least one of the data source from which the received current data was received and the age of the received current data.
21 . The system of claim 19 , wherein the mathematical instructions comprise at least one of fuzzy logic instructions, Bayesian analyses instructions, neural network analyses instructions, probability calculation instructions, mean calculation instructions, confidence interval calculation instructions, Z-test instructions, T-test instructions, autoregressive modeling instructions, and residual analysis instructions for multiple regression.