Method and system for predicting the adoption of services, such as telecommunication services
An innovative service modeling framework is provided that can be used to analyze and assess the business opportunities of existing and emerging telecommunication services. This forecasting model/tool provides an approach to assess current and future markets—thus lowering investment risks, ensuring better decisions and subsequently having a greater impact. The core of the framework relies on a novel forecasting model (based on the theory of diffusion or S-curves) that departs from typical models used by popular research firms. The enhanced diffusion model relies on multi-dimensional input parameters and can take into account the impact of disruptions, regulations, network readiness, user utility and other dynamics. The input parameters are modeled as a series of vectors and are used to represent perturbations to the model. These influence the behavior of the adoption rate process in more realistic way.
1 . A method for predicting an adoption of a service by subscribers over time, the method comprising the steps of:
for each of at least one influence on the adoption defining at least one time vector that represents the influence;
defining a diffusion equation that expresses a relationship between the adoption and a rate of change of the adoption; and
combining the diffusion equation and the at least one time vector for each influence to produce an enhanced diffusion model.
2 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein at least one time vector is determined from a demand model, a supply model, or the supply model and the demand model.
3 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the at least one time vector includes at least one of a subscriber utility vector that represents the influence of subscriber demand on the adoption, a network utility vector that represents the influence of a provider's readiness to provide a service, an advantage vector that represents the influence of an advantage of the provider over another provider, a regulation vector that represents the influence of a regulation, and a disruption vector that represents the influence of a disruption.
4 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the diffusion equation is selected from a group consisting of the Bass, Gompertz, and FisherPry diffusion equations.
5 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein defining the at least one time vector comprises:
determining at least one factor that contributes to the influence;
assigning to the at least one factor an impact score that represents the impact of the at least one factor on the adoption;
defining a plurality of dates;
assigning to a provider of the service at each date a time weight that represents how strongly the at least one factor contributes to the influence over time; and
generating for the at least one factor and the provider at each date a factor-impact score that represents a weighting of the time weights against the impact score to produce the at least one time vector.
6 . The method according to claim 5 , wherein defining the at least one time vector further comprises estimating the time weight based on at least one business consideration.
7 . The method according to claim 5 , wherein defining the at least one time vector further comprises estimating the time weights based on the influence of a stakeholder.
8 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the diffusion equation has at least one parameter, and combining comprises making at least one parameter of the diffusion equation a function of time using at least one time vector.
9 . The method according to claim 8 , wherein the at least one parameter comprises a saturation parameter K and a diffusion parameter p, at least one of which is a function of the at least one time vector.
10 . The method according to claim 9 , wherein the saturation parameter K is a function of at least an advantage vector and a subscriber utility vector.
11 . The method according to claim 9 , wherein the diffusion parameter p is a function of a subscriber utility vector, a network utility vector, an advantage vector, and a regulation vector.
12 . The method according to claim 1 , further comprising using the enhanced diffusion model to provide a prediction of a number of subscribers to a telecommunications service.
13 . The method according to claim 1 further comprising using the enhanced diffusion model for at least one of: prioritizing business investment decisions, validating a customer business case, validating a product feature requirement, validating a network solution to ensure adequacy of quality of experience delivery, identifying an emerging service, identifying a rate of adoption, identifying a deployment timeline, identifying a service having the fastest adoption rate, identifying a factor having the most influence on adoption, building a cost model, project profits, predicting a time window for return on investment, and predicting when a late majority occurs.
14 . The method according to claim 1 further comprising selecting the service from a class of services based on enabling factors, inhibiting factors, and disrupting factors.
15 . The method according to claim 1 further comprising selecting the service based on an advantage of a provider over another provider on account of a type of content of the service.
16 . A system for predicting the adoption of a service by subscribers over time comprising:
a memory coupled to a processor, the processor configured to:
for each of at least one influence on the adoption define at least one time vector that represents the influence;
define a diffusion equation that expresses a relationship between the adoption and a rate of change of the adoption; and
combine the diffusion equation and the at least one time vector for each influence to produce an enhanced diffusion model.
17 . The system according to claim 16 , adapted to define the at least one time vector by:
determining at least one factor that contributes to the influence;
assigning to the at least one factor an impact score that represents the impact of the at least one factor on the adoption;
defining a plurality of dates;
assigning to a provider of the service at each date a time weight that represents how strongly the at least one factor contributes to the influence over time; and
generating for the at least one factor and the provider at each date a factor-impact score that represents a weighting of the time weights against the impact score to produce the at least one time vector.
18 . A computer readable medium on which is stored a set of instructions for predicting the adoption of a service by subscribers over time, which when executed performs steps comprising:
for each of at least one influence on the adoption defining at least one time vector that represents the influence;
defining a diffusion equation that expresses a relationship between the adoption and a rate of change of the adoption; and
combining the diffusion equation and the at least one time vector for each influence to produce an enhanced model.
19 . The computer readable medium according to claim 18 , wherein defining the at least one time vector comprises:
determining at least one factor that contributes to the influence;
assigning to the at least one factor an impact score that represents the impact of the at least one factor on the adoption;
defining a plurality of dates;
assigning to a provider of the service at each date a time weight that represents how strongly the at least one factor contributes to the influence over time; and
generating for the at least one factor and the provider at each date a factor-impact score that represents a weighting of the time weights against the impact score to produce the at least one time vector.