Real-time predictive time-to-completion for variable configure-to-order manufacturing

1. A method in a computer system for predicting a completion time for manufacturing a particular configuration of a product, the method comprising:

receiving, at a data processing system, an order to manufacture the configuration of the product;

identifying, by a processing unit of the data processing system, a plurality of activities that must be finished in order to completely manufacture the configuration, wherein each activity in the plurality of activities has one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity;

calculating, by the processing unit, an initial predicted completion time by adding historical cycle times for each activity in the plurality of activities;

responsive to completion of an activity in the plurality of activities, determining, by the processing unit, an actual amount of time the activity took to complete;

predicting, by the processing unit, an amount of time that it will take incomplete activities of the plurality of activities to complete using the actual amount of time the completed activity took to complete and the one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity;

recalculating, by the processing unit, the initial predicted completion time using the actual amount of time of the completed activity and the predicted amount of time of the incomplete activities to form a recalculated prediction time that it will take to manufacture the configuration; and

reporting, by the processing unit, the recalculated prediction completion time as the configuration of the product is being manufactured.

2. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

completing additional incomplete activities of the plurality of activities to form additional completed activities; and

predicting an updated amount of time that it will take to complete remaining incomplete activities of the plurality of activities using an actual amount of time that it took to complete the additional completed activities.

3. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

updating the predicted completion time as additional ones of the plurality of activities complete.

4. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities, defining the one or more associated rules that state a predicted amount of time that it will take to complete the incomplete activity of the plurality of activities as a function of an actual amount of time taken for at least one completed activity of the plurality of activities.

5. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

identifying the plurality of activities from a second plurality of activities in response to the receipt of the order;

for each incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities, defining the one or more associated rules that state a predicted amount of time that it will take to complete an incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities as a function of an actual amount of time taken for at least one completed activity of the second plurality of activities;

identifying the one or more associated rules that have been defined for the incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities; and

for each incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities, using the one or more associated rules identified for the incomplete activity in the second plurality of activities to predict an amount of time that it will take to complete the incomplete activity in the second plurality of activities.

6. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

monitoring a completion status for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities that indicates when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes; and

in response to one of the plurality of activities completing, updating the predicted amount of time that it will take to complete incomplete activities of the plurality of activities using an actual amount of time that it took to complete completed activities in the plurality of activities, wherein the predicted amount of time is updated when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes.

7. The method according to claim 6 , further comprising:

in response to updating the predicted amount of time, updating the predicted completion time, wherein the predicted completion time is updated when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes.

8. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising:

repeating the calculating, predicting, recalculating, and reporting steps each time an incomplete activity in the plurality of activities completes.

9. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the recalculated prediction time comprises a sum of actual amounts of time for completed activities and predicted amounts of time for incomplete activities.

10. A computer program product in a computer usable medium having computer usable program code stored thereon, the computer usable program code for execution by a computer, comprising:

computer usable program code for receiving an order to manufacture the configuration of the product;

computer usable program code for identifying a plurality of activities that must be finished in order to completely manufacture the configuration, wherein each activity in the plurality of activities has one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity;

computer usable program code for calculating an initial predicted completion time by adding historical cycle times for each activity in the plurality of activities;

computer usable program code for determining, in response to completion of an activity in the plurality of activities, an actual amount of time the activity took to complete;

computer usable program code for predicting an amount of time that it will take incomplete activities of the plurality of activities to complete using the actual amount of time the completed activity took to complete and the one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity;

computer usable program code for recalculating the initial predicted completion time using the actual amount of time of the completed activity and the predicted amount of time of the incomplete activities to form a recalculated prediction time that it will take to manufacture the configuration; and

computer usable program code for reporting the recalculated prediction completion time as the configuration of the product is being manufactured.

11. The computer program product according to claim 10 , further comprising:

computer usable program code for completing additional incomplete activities of the plurality of activities to form additional completed activities; and

computer usable program code for predicting an updated amount of time that it will take to complete remaining incomplete activities of the plurality of activities using an actual amount of time that it took to complete the additional completed activities.

12. The computer program product according to claim 10 , further comprising:

computer usable program code updating the predicted completion time as additional ones of the plurality of activities complete.

13. The computer program product according to claim 10 , further comprising:

for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities, computer usable program code for defining one or more rules that state a predicted amount of time that it will take to complete the incomplete activity of the plurality of activities as a function of an actual amount of time taken for at least one completed activity of the plurality of activities.

14. The computer program product according to claim 13 , further comprising:

computer usable program code for identifying the plurality of activities from a second plurality of activities in response to the receipt of the order;

for each incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities, computer usable program code for defining one or more rules that state a predicted amount of time that it will take to complete an incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities as a function of an actual amount of time taken for at least one completed activity of the second plurality of activities;

computer usable program code for identifying one or more rules that have been defined for the incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities; and

for each incomplete activity of the second plurality of activities, computer usable program code for using the one or more rules identified for the incomplete activity in the second plurality of activities to predict an amount of time that it will take to complete the incomplete activity in the second plurality of activities.

15. The computer program product according to claim 10 , further comprising:

computer usable program code for monitoring a completion status for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities that indicates when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes; and

in response to one of the plurality of activities completing, computer usable program code for updating the predicted amount of time that it will take to complete incomplete activities of the plurality of activities using an actual amount of time that it took to complete completed activities in the plurality of activities, wherein the predicted amount of time is updated when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes.

16. The computer program product according to claim 15 , further comprising:

in response to updating the predicted amount of time, computer usable program code for updating the predicted completion time, wherein the predicted completion time is updated when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes.

17. An apparatus in a computer system comprising:

a bus;

a storage device connected to the bus, wherein the storage device contains computer usable code;

at least one managed device connected to the bus;

a communications unit connected to the bus; and

a processing unit connected to the bus, wherein the processing unit executes the computer usable code to receive an order to manufacture the configuration of the product; identify a plurality of activities that must be finished in order to completely manufacture the configuration, wherein each activity in the plurality of activities has one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity; calculate an initial predicted completion time by adding historical cycle times for each activity in the plurality of activities; responsive to completion of an activity in the plurality of activities, determine an actual amount of time the activity took to complete; predict an amount of time that it will take incomplete activities of the plurality of activities to complete using the actual amount of time the completed activity took to complete and the one or more associated rules for calculating a predicted cycle time for an activity; recalculate the initial predicted completion time using the actual amount of time of the completed activity and the predicted amount of time of the incomplete activities to form a recalculated prediction time that it will take to manufacture the configuration; and report the recalculated prediction completion time as the configuration of the product is being manufactured.

18. The apparatus according to claim 17 , wherein the processing unit further executes the computer usable code, for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities, to define the one or more associated rules that state a predicted amount of time that it will take to complete the incomplete activity of the plurality of activities as a function of an actual amount of time taken for at least one completed activity of the plurality of activities.

19. The apparatus according to claim 17 , wherein the processing unit further executes the computer usable code to monitor a completion status for each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities that indicates when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes; and in response to one of the plurality of activities completing, update the predicted amount of time that it will take to complete incomplete activities of the plurality of activities using an actual amount of time that it took to complete completed activities in the plurality of activities, wherein the predicted amount of time is updated when each incomplete activity of the plurality of activities completes.