SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR PREDICTIVE MODELS USING GEOGRAPHIC TEXT SEARCH

1 . A computer-implemented method of generating a predictive model, the method comprising:

accepting search criteria from a user, the search criteria including information identifying a past event, a domain identifier identifying a domain in which the past event occurred, and a time identifier identifying a time period preceding the past event;

obtaining a plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples based on the domain identifier and the time identifier;

statistically analyzing the sets of document-location-time tuples;

comparing results of the statistical analysis of the sets of document-location-time tuples to identify information that precedes and statistically correlates with the past event; and

displaying information associated with the identified information on a display device.

2 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising labeling the identified information according to an event type, and storing the labeled identified information on a computer-readable medium.

3 . The method of claim 1 , wherein obtaining the plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples comprises obtaining a first set of tuples that includes information about the domain, and obtaining a second set of tuples that includes information about a region that excludes the domain.

4 . The method of claim 1 , wherein obtaining a plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples comprises obtaining a first set of tuples that includes information about a time period preceding the past event, and obtaining a second set of tuples that includes information about a time period that excludes the time period preceding the past event.

5 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising automatically refining the identified information based on at least some document-location-time tuples in response to user input.

6 . The method of claim 5 , wherein said refining comprises at least one of accepting user input scoring at least some of the document-location-time tuples and entering a feedback loop; accepting user input truthing at least some of the document-location-time tuples and entering a feedback loop; using blind relevance feedback in response to a user instruction; and accepting user input modifying the identified information.

7 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the information associated with the identified information comprises a model of an event of the same type as the past event.

8 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the information associated with the identified information comprises an abstraction of the identified information.

9 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the identified information comprises at least one of a statistically interesting phrase and statistically interesting information.

10 . An interface program stored on a computer-readable medium for causing a computer system with a display device to perform the functions of:

accepting search criteria from a user, the search criteria including information identifying a past event, a domain identifier identifying a domain in which the past event occurred, and a time identifier identifying a time period preceding the past event;

obtaining a plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples based on the domain identifier and the time identifier;

statistically analyzing the sets of document-location-time tuples;

comparing results of the statistical analysis of the sets of document-location-time tuples to identify information that precedes and statistically correlates with the past event; and

displaying information associated with the identified information on a display device.

11 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of labeling the identified information according to an event type, and storing the labeled identified information on a computer-readable medium.

12 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein obtaining the plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples comprises obtaining a first set of tuples that includes information about the domain, and obtaining a second set of tuples that includes information about a region that excludes the domain.

13 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein obtaining a plurality of sets of document-location-time tuples comprises obtaining a first set of tuples that includes information about a time period preceding the past event, and obtaining a second set of tuples that includes information about a time period that excludes the time period preceding the past event.

14 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of automatically refining the identified information based on at least some document-location-time tuples in response to user input.

15 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein said refining comprises at least one of accepting user input scoring at least some of the document-location-time tuples and entering a feedback loop; accepting user input truthing at least some of the document-location-time tuples and entering a feedback loop; using blind relevance feedback in response to a user instruction; and accepting user input modifying the identified information.

16 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein the information associated with the identified information comprises a model of an event of the same type as the past event.

17 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein the information associated with the identified information comprises an abstraction of the identified information.

18 . The interface program of claim 10 , wherein the identified information comprises at least one of a statistically interesting phrase and statistically interesting information.

19 . A computer-implemented method of using a model to predict an event, the method comprising:

accepting search criteria from a user, the search criteria including information identifying a type of event the user would like to predict, a domain identifier identifying a domain, and a time identifier identifying a time period;

obtaining a model based on the type of event the user would like to predict, the model including information that was previously identified as being predictive of the type of event;

obtaining a set of document-location-time tuples based on the domain identifier and the time identifier, each of the document-location-time tuples including at least some of the information that was previously identified as being predictive of the type of event;

based on the set of document-location-time tuples, estimating a probability that the type of event will occur in the domain; and

if the estimate of the probability exceeds a predefined threshold, alerting the user.

20 . The method of claim 19 , wherein alerting the user comprises at least one of displaying information about the estimated probability of the event to the user; emailing a notification to the user; displaying a visual representation of the domain identified by the domain identifier; and displaying at least one of the document-location-time-tuples to the user.

21 . The method of claim 19 , further comprising providing an interface allowing a user to request additional information related to the estimate of the probability.

22 . The method of claim 21 , wherein the request for additional information includes a free text query string, and wherein the method further comprises displaying to the user a visual representation of locations identified in document-location-time tuples responsive to the free text query.

23 . The method of claim 21 , wherein the request for additional information includes a spatial domain identifier identifying a domain, and wherein the method further comprises displaying to the user a visual representation of the identified domain and a listing of documents containing spatial identifiers that identify locations within the domain.

24 . The method of claim 19 , further comprising providing an interface for the user to modify the model.

25 . The method of claim 24 , wherein the interface allows the user to provide a set of training document-location-time tuples that include information about the type of event.

26 . An interface program stored on a computer-readable medium for causing a computer system with a display device to perform the functions of:

accepting search criteria from a user, the search criteria including information identifying a type of event the user would like to predict, a domain identifier identifying a domain, and a time identifier identifying a time period;

obtaining a model based on the type of event the user would like to predict, the model including information that was previously identified as being predictive of the type of event;

obtaining a set of document-location-time tuples based on the domain identifier and the time identifier, each of the document-location-time tuples including at least some of the information that was previously identified as being predictive of the type of event;

based on the set of document-location-time tuples, estimating a probability that the type of event will occur in the domain; and

if the estimate of the probability exceeds a predefined threshold, alerting the user on a display device.

27 . The interface program of claim 26 , wherein alerting the user comprises at least one of displaying information about the estimated probability of the event to the user on the display device; emailing a notification to the user; displaying a visual representation of the domain identified by the domain identifier on the display device; and displaying at least one of the document-location-time-tuples to the user on the display device.

28 . The interface program of claim 26 , wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of providing an interface allowing a user to request additional information related to the estimate of the probability.

29 . The interface program of claim 28 , wherein the request for additional information includes a free text query string, and wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of displaying to the user a visual representation of locations identified in document-location-time tuples responsive to the free text query.

30 . The interface program of claim 28 , wherein the request for additional information includes a spatial domain identifier identifying a domain, and wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of displaying to the user a visual representation of the identified domain and a listing of documents containing spatial identifiers that identify locations within the domain.

31 . The interface program of claim 26 , wherein the program further causes the computer system to perform the functions of providing an interface for the user to modify the model.

32 . The interface program of claim 31 , wherein the interface allows the user to provide a set of training document-location-time tuples that include information about the type of event.