Method and apparatus for estimation of component gating and shortage risk in manufacturing operations

1. A computer-implemented method performed by a computer for identifying a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, the method comprising:

providing a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determining an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of the products,

determining a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

computing, by the computer, a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

computing, by the computer, a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determining, by the computer, whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

storing an indication of the determined gating component in a memory; and

for each gating component, determining a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period based of the computed gating risk for

the gating component to reduce the probability of the gating component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

3. The method of claim 2 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

4. The method of claim 2 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.

5. A computer-readable storage medium encoded with instructions executable by a processor to identify a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, by performing acts comprising:

providing a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determining an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of each of the products,

determining a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

computing, by the computer, a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

computing, by the computer, a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determining, by the computer, whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

storing an indication of the determined gating component in a memory; and

for each gating component, reporting to a user the gating risk for the component for use in determining a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period.

6. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 5 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

7. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 6 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

8. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 6 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.

9. A computer system for identifying a gating component for a plurality of different products estimated to be produced by a manufacturing facility during a planning period, the computer system comprising:

a memory; and

a processor configured to operate on instructions stored in the memory to

access a connect rate for each component of each product, the connect rate of a component of a product representing the number of the component needed to manufacture one unit of the product;

determine an expected demand for each of the plurality of products;

for each component of each of the products,

determine a quantity that is a maximum availability of the component;

compute a derivative of an expected quantity of the products with respect to a quantity of the component of the products, the expected quantity of the products being a mean production of the products given the quantity of the components and the expected demand for the products;

compute a component gating risk for the component based on the derivative and the connect rate of the component, the component gating risk being the risk that the component will be the cause of a failure to fulfill an order;

determine whether the component is a gating component based on the component gating risk for the component; and

store an indication of the determined gating component in the memory; and

for each component, determine a quantity of the gating component to purchase for availability during the planning period factoring in whether the component is a gating component.

10. The computer system of claim 9 wherein the determining of the gating risk includes calculating a first mean production for each product assuming an increased availability of the component and a second mean production for each product assuming a decreased availability of the component.

11. The computer system of claim 10 wherein the gating risk is based on a difference between the first mean production and the second mean production divided by the difference in the increased availability and decreased availability of the component.

12. The computer system of claim 10 wherein the first mean production and the second mean production are calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation.