Systems, methods, and apparatus, including software tangibly stored on a computer readable medium, involve a future deadline for completion of a project milestone. An estimate of an amount of time slippage associated with the future deadline is received. A probability of missing the future deadline is calculated based on the estimated amount of time slippage and an amount of time remaining until the future deadline.
1. A method for assessing risk, the method comprising:
identifying a future deadline for completion of at least one project milestone;
receiving an estimate of an amount of time slippage associated with the future deadline;
calculating, with a computer, a probability of missing the future deadline, wherein the probability of missing the future deadline is calculated by dividing the estimated amount of time slippage by a sum of a time remaining until the future deadline and the estimated amount of time slippage;
calculating, by the computer, a percent of milestone slippage by dividing the time slippage associated with the project milestone by a sum of a milestone elapsed time and the time remaining until the future deadline of the milestone;
presenting, by the computer, on a user interface a coordinate system comprising a first dimension representing a range of probabilities of missing the future deadline and a second dimension representing a range of percent of milestone slippage;
plotting, by the computer, a data point representing each project milestone in the coordinate system where a value in the first dimension is the calculated probability of missing the future deadline and a value in the second dimension is the calculated percent of milestone slippage;
defining a first region, a second region, and a third region in the coordinate system; and
determining, by the computer, a risk level for each project milestone based on the location of each data point being in either the first region, the second region, or the third region in the graph.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the milestone elapsed time is a time between a predecessor milestone and a risk entry date.
3. The method of claim 1 , further comprising identifying a project timeline, wherein the future deadline comprises one of a plurality of future deadlines for the project timeline.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the future deadline comprises a future date.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the amount of time remaining until the future deadline is the number of days between a current date and the future date.
6. A computer program product, tangibly stored on a non-transitory computer-readable medium, comprising instructions operable to cause a programmable processor to:
retrieve stored data identifying a future deadline for completion of at least one project milestone;
receive an estimate of an amount of time slippage associated with the at least one project milestone;
calculate a probability of missing the future deadline, wherein the probability of missing the future deadline is calculated by dividing the estimated amount of time slippage by a sum of a time remaining until the future deadline and the estimated amount of time slippage;
calculate a percent of milestone slippage by dividing the time slippage associated with the project milestone by a sum of a milestone elapsed time and the time remaining until the future deadline of the milestone;
present on a user interface a coordinate system comprising a first dimension representing a range of probabilities of missing the future deadline and a second dimension representing a range of percent of milestone slippage;
plot a data point representing each project milestone in the coordinate system where a value in the first dimension is the calculated probability of missing the future deadline and a value in the second dimension is the calculated percent of milestone slippage;
define a first region, a second region, and a third region in the coordinate system; and
determine a risk level for each project milestone based on the location of each data point being in either the first region, the second region, or the third region in the graph.
7. The computer program product of claim 6 , wherein the data point comprises a color coded representation determined according to a risk level associated with the project milestone.
8. The computer program product of claim 6 , further comprising instructions operable to cause the programmable processor to:
calculate a risk of encountering a cost associated with missing the future deadline by multiplying a cost associated with missing the future deadline by the probability of missing the future deadline; and
compare the risk of encountering the cost associated with missing the future deadline to one or more thresholds.
9. The computer program product of claim 8 , further comprising instructions operable to cause the programmable processor to issue a notification based on the comparison of the risk of encountering the cost and the one or more thresholds.
10. A data processing apparatus including a processor and a non-transitory machine-readable medium storing thereon machine executable instructions for causing the processor of the data processing apparatus to perform operations comprising:
identifying a future deadline for completion of at least one project milestone;
receiving an estimate of an amount of time slippage associated with the project milestone;
calculating a probability of missing the future deadline, wherein the probability of missing the future deadline is calculated by dividing the estimated amount of time slippage by a sum of a time remaining until the future deadline and the estimated amount of time slippage;
calculating a percent of milestone slippage by dividing the time slippage associated with the project milestone by a sum of a milestone elapsed time and the time remaining until the future deadline of the milestone;
presenting on a user interface a coordinate system comprising a first dimension representing a range of probabilities of missing the future deadline and a second dimension representing a range of percent of milestone slippage;
plotting a data point representing each project milestone in the coordinate system where a value in the first dimension is the calculated probability of missing the future deadline and a value in the second dimension is the calculated percent of milestone slippage;
defining a first region, a second region, and a third region in the coordinate system; and
determining a risk level for each project milestone based on the location of each data point being in either the first region, the second region, or the third region in the graph.