Tropical cyclone prediction system and method
View Patent ↗A method of providing information related to a weather phenomenon includes obtaining a plurality of model tracks corresponding to a weather phenomenon from at least one forecast center. A probabilistic description of one or more characteristics of the weather phenomenon is determined based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon. An electronic representation of the probabilistic description is provided.
1. A method of providing information related to a weather phenomenon, the method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track;
(c) determining, by at least one computer, a probabilistic description of one or more characteristics of the weather phenomenon based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon using the scaling factor assigned to each of respective model tracks; and
(d) providing an electronic representation of the probabilistic description.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the providing step comprises providing capabilities for downloading the electronic representation by at least one entity.
3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the at least one entity uses the downloaded electronic representation to facilitate forecasting a financial impact of the weather phenomenon.
4. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
(e) periodically updating the probabilistic description using an updated plurality of model tracks generated by the two or more forecast centers.
5. The method of claim 1 , where an uncertainty for the one or more characteristics is determined based on the statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the statistical analysis of the model tracks includes applying a post-processing model to each of the plurality of model tracks at one or more locations along the model track using atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface data corresponding to the model track, and statistically aggregating results from applying the post-processing model using the scaling factors.
7. A method of providing information related to a weather phenomenon, the method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) determining, by at least one computer, a probabilistic description of an intersection of the weather phenomenon with a boundary based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to the weather phenomenon; and
(c) providing an electronic representation of the probabilistic description, wherein a statistical uncertainty for the intersection of the weather phenomenon with the boundary is proportional to a variance of intersection points determined for each of the plurality of model tracks at the boundary, the contribution of each intersection point to the variance based on a scaling factor corresponding to which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective track.
8. The method of claim 7 , wherein the providing step comprises providing capabilities for downloading the electronic representation by at least one entity.
9. The method of claim 8 , wherein the at least one entity uses the downloaded electronic representation to facilitate forecasting a financial impact of the weather phenomenon.
10. The method of claim 7 , further comprising:
(d) periodically updating the probabilistic description using an updated plurality of model tracks generated by the two or more forecast centers.
11. The method of claim 7 , wherein the boundary is a coastline and the intersection with the boundary represents a landfall of a tropical cyclone.
12. The method of claim 7 , wherein determining the probabilistic description includes assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track, determining a position corresponding to an intersection of each of the model tracks with the boundary, and statistically aggregating the resulting positions using the scaling factors.
13. A method of providing information related to a weather phenomenon, the method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) determining model tracks of the plurality of model tracks that do not correspond to at least one previously identified weather phenomenon instance;
(c) identifying one or more new weather phenomenon instances corresponding to the model tracks determined in step (b) for the current forecast period; and
(d) providing, by at least one computer, a probabilistic description of one or more characteristics of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to each of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances, wherein the statistical analysis includes:
assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track;
applying a post-processing model to each of the plurality of model tracks at one or more locations along the model track using atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface data corresponding to each of the model tracks; and
statistically aggregating results from the applying the post-processing model using the scaling factors.
14. The method of claim 13 , further comprising:
(e) periodically repeating steps (a)-(d) using an updated plurality of model tracks generated by the two or more forecast centers.
15. The method of claim 13 , wherein the scaling factor is assigned based in part on at least one of a geographic position of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances, the one or more characteristics of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances, at least one of atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface conditions affecting the one or more new weather phenomenon instances, and a time of year for the occurrence of the one or more new instances of the weather phenomenon.
16. The method of claim 13 , wherein the one or more characteristics are descriptive of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances at a position corresponding to an intersection of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances with a boundary.
17. The method of claim 16 , wherein the one or more characteristics include at least one of wind speed, minimum central pressure, radius of impact, precipitation rate, tornado potential, and storm surge height.
18. The method of claim 13 , wherein the weather phenomenon is a tropical cyclone.
19. The method of claim 13 , wherein the probabilistic description is a boundary intersection function, the boundary intersection function being a graphical representation of a set of probabilities corresponding to values of the one or more characteristics at an intersection with a boundary.
20. The method of claim 13 , wherein providing the probabilistic description includes electronically publishing the probabilistic determination for at least one entity, the at least one entity using the published representation to facilitate forecasting a financial impact of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances.
21. A method of providing information related to a tropical cyclone, the method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) associating each of the plurality of model tracks with at least one tropical cyclone instance;
(c) assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track;
(d) determining, by at least one computer, a probabilistic description of one or more characteristics of the at least one tropical cyclone instance based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks associated with the at least one tropical cyclone instance using the scaling factor assigned to each of respective model tracks;
(e) providing an electronic representation of the probabilistic description.
22. The method of claim 21 , wherein the providing step comprises publishing the electronic representation of the probabilistic description to an entity.
23. The method of claim 21 , wherein the at least one tropical cyclone instance includes at least one new tropical cyclone instance identified based on one or more of the model tracks not being associated with one or more previously identified tropical cyclone instances.
24. The method of claim 22 , wherein the providing includes providing capabilities for downloading the electronic representation of the probabilistic description by at least one entity, the at least one entity using the published representation to facilitate forecasting a financial impact of the at least one tropical cyclone instance.
25. The method of claim 21 , further comprising:
(f) periodically repeating steps (a)-(e) using an updated plurality of model tracks generated by the two or more forecast centers.
26. The method of claim 21 , wherein the statistical analysis of the model tracks applying a post-processing model to each of the plurality of model tracks at one or more locations along the model track using atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface data corresponding to the model track, and statistically aggregating results from applying the post-processing model using the scaling factors.
27. A method of predicting information related to a tropical cyclone, the method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) associating each of the one or more model tracks with at least one tropical cyclone instance;
(c) assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track;
(d) determining, by at least one computer, a probabilistic description of an intersection of the at least one tropical cyclone instance with a boundary based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks associated with the at least one tropical cyclone instance using the scaling factor assigned to each of respective model tracks; and
(e) providing an electronic representation of the probabilistic description.
28. The method of claim 27 , wherein the boundary is a coastline and the intersection with the boundary represents a landfall of the tropical cyclone instance.
29. The method of claim 27 , further comprising:
(f) periodically repeating steps (a)-(e) using an updated plurality of model tracks generated by the two or more forecast centers.
30. The method of claim 27 , wherein the at least one tropical cyclone instance includes a new tropical cyclone instance identified based on one or more of the model tracks not being associated with one or more previously identified tropical cyclone instances.
31. The method of claim 27 , wherein the statistical analysis of the model tracks includes determining a position corresponding to an intersection of each of the model tracks with the boundary, and statistically aggregating the resulting positions using the scaling factors.
32. An article of manufacture for providing information related to a weather phenomenon, the article of manufacture comprising a non-transitory computer-readable medium holding computer-executable instructions for performing a method comprising:
(a) obtaining a plurality of model tracks for a current forecast period from two or more forecast centers;
(b) determining model tracks of the plurality of model tracks that do not correspond to at least one previously identified weather phenomenon instance;
(c) identifying one or more new weather phenomenon instances corresponding to the model tracks determined in step (b) for the current forecast period; and
(d) providing a probabilistic description of one or more characteristics of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances based on a statistical analysis of the model tracks corresponding to each of the one or more new weather phenomenon instances, wherein the statistical analysis includes:
assigning a scaling factor to each of the plurality of model tracks based on which of the two or more forecast centers produced the respective model track;
applying a post-processing model to each of the plurality of model tracks at one or more locations along the model track using atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface data corresponding to each of the model tracks; and
statistically aggregating results from the applying the post-processing model using the scaling factors.