Method for predictive determination of a process variable based on an assignment of a discrete measured value

1. A method for predictive determination of a process variable (P) in a technical installation using a circuit having a database and a processor, the method comprising:

receiving measured values from a sensor;

recording, in the database, the measured values for the process variable (P) of the technical installation at predeterminable points in time during operation of the technical installation; and

 in the processor:

combining temporally successive recorded measured values to form a weighted measured value;

assigning a discrete measured value to each weighted measured value;

estimating a future time profile of the process variable (P) using a regression of the discrete measured values; and

calculating a point in time at which the process variable (P) reaches a predeterminable limit value,

wherein each weighted measured value that lies in a predeterminable tolerance band (H 1 ... H 8 ) is assigned a same discrete measured value.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein the regression is a linear regression.

3. The method as claimed in claim 2 , comprising:

calculating a coefficient of determination (B) of the linear regression; and

calculating, with aid of the coefficient of determination (B) , a time interval within which the process variable (P) is expected to reach a predetermined value.

4. The method as claimed in claim 2 , comprising:

detecting damage to the technical installation using the linear regression.

5. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein the predeterminable tolerance bands (H 1 ... H 8 ) have different widths.

6. The method as claimed in claim 1 , comprising:

taking the measured values into account more or less strongly depending on a point in time of their recording.

7. The method as claimed in claim 6 , wherein the measured values taken into account are only measured values lying temporally after a predeterminable point in time.

8. The method as claimed in claim 1 , comprising:

applying the calculating of a point in time at which the process variable (P) reaches the predeterminable limit value to a gas-insulated switching installation as the technical installation.

9. The method as claimed in claim 8 , comprising:

receiving pressure of an insulating gas in a gas space of the gas-insulated switching installation as the process variable (P).

10. The method as claimed in claim 9 , wherein the regression is a linear regression.

11. The method as claimed in claim 1 , comprising:

calculating a coefficient of determination (B) of the linear regression; and

calculating, with aid of the coefficient of determination (B), a time interval within which the process variable is expected to reach a predetermined value.

12. The method as claimed in claim 11 , comprising:

taking the measured values into account more or less strongly depending on a point in time of their recording.

13. The method as claimed in claim 12 , comprising:

detecting damage to the technical installation using the linear regression.

14. A system for predictive determination of a process variable (P) in a technical installation, comprising:

a sensor;

a database for recording measured values for the process variable (P) of the technical installation at predeterminable points in time during operation of the technical installation; and

a processor for executing a program for:

combining temporally successive recorded measured values to form a weighted measured value;

assigning a discrete measured value to each weighted measured value;

estimating a future time profile of the process variable (P) using a regression of the discrete measured values; and

calculating a point in time at which the process variable (P) reaches a predeterminable limit value,

wherein each weighted measured value that lies in a predeterminable tolerance band (H 1 ... H 8 ) is assigned a same discrete measured value.