METHODS AND APPARATUS TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF TRADE PROMOTIONS ON COMPETITIVE PRODUCTS
Example methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on competitive products are disclosed. A disclosed example method includes identifying a plurality of competitive products and calculating a weighting similarity index for each one of the plurality of competitive products based on the target product. The example method also includes selecting a competitive product subset of the plurality of competitive products, each of the competitive products within the subset having a target similarity index, and retrieving point of sale (POS) data related to the target product and the competitive product subset. Further, the example method includes calculating a competitive trade index based on sales activity of the competitive product subset, the competitive trade index indicative of the target product sales effect, and generating a report including the competitive trade index.
1 . A computer implemented method to estimate a target product sales effect in response to a trade promotion, comprising:
identifying a plurality of competitive products;
calculating a weighting similarity index for each one of the plurality of competitive products based on the target product;
selecting a competitive product subset of the plurality of competitive products, each of the competitive products within the subset having a target similarity index;
retrieving point of sale (POS) data related to the target product and the competitive product subset;
calculating a competitive trade index based on sales activity of the competitive product subset, the competitive trade index indicative of the target product sales effect; and
generating a report including the competitive trade index.
2 . (canceled)
3 . A method as defined in claim 1 , wherein identifying the plurality of competitive products further comprises parsing the retrieved POS data and identifying at least one of the plurality of competitive products when a threshold number of instances of sale of the at least one competitive product is identified.
4 . A method as defined in claim 1 , wherein calculating the weighting similarity index further comprises calculating a Jaccard index indicative of a degree of similarity between the target product and each one of the plurality of competitive products.
5 . A method as defined in claim 1 , wherein identifying the plurality of competitive products further comprises querying a coded product reference library comprising a plurality of product characteristics.
6 . A method as defined in claim 5 , wherein the plurality of product characteristics comprises at least one of a manufacturer name, a product size, a brand, a flavor, a lot number, a serial number, or a package type.
7 . A method as defined in claim 1 , wherein selecting the competitive product subset further comprises building a candidate list of competitive products based on a category match.
8 - 11 . (canceled)
12 . A method as defined in claim 1 , wherein retrieving the POS data further comprises identifying causal factors related to the trade promotion.
13 . A method as defined in claim 12 , further comprising calculating a promoted price index (PPI) based on the target product current price and the target product regular price.
14 . A method as defined in claim 13 , further comprising comparing a log of the PPI to a promoted price threshold to identify a valid trade promotion.
15 . A method as defined in claim 14 , further comprising identifying causal parameters associated with the trade promotion when the promoted price threshold is exceeded.
16 . A method as defined in claim 15 , wherein the identified causal parameters comprise at least one of a feature, a display, or a price reduction.
17 . (canceled)
18 . A method as defined in claim 1 , further comprising calculating an inter-brand price weight based on the trade promotion to identify a magnitude of the target product sales effect on the competitive product subset.
19 . A method as defined in claim 18 , further comprising calculating a base equivalent volume between the target product and the competitive product subset to eliminate product packaging disparity.
20 . A method as defined in claim 18 , wherein calculating the competitive trade index for the target product is based on sales activity of the target product, sales activity of the competitive product subset, and a difference volume between equivalent volume sales and base equivalent volume sales of the target product.
21 . A method as defined in claim 20 , further comprising calculating a raw inter-brand sales volume of the target product by multiplying the difference volume by an inter-brand weight.
22 . A method as defined in claim 21 , further comprising quantifying the target product sales effect by dividing a summed total of the raw inter-brand sales volume by a maximum value of the base equivalent volume sales of the target product.
23 . A method as defined in claim 1 , further comprising quantifying an effect of a new competitive product within the competitive product subset on the target product by calculating an inter-brand distribution value.
24 . A method as defined in claim 23 , wherein the inter-brand distribution value is based on a competitive product shelf duration.
25 . An apparatus to estimate a target product sales effect in response to a trade promotion, comprising:
a product reference interface to identify a plurality of competitive products;
a weighting assignor to calculate a weighting similarity index for each one of the plurality of competitive products based on the target product;
a target product comparator to select a competitive product subset of the plurality of competitive products, each of the competitive products within the subset having a target weighting similarity index;
a promotion analysis engine to retrieve point of sale data related to the target product and the competitive product subset; and
a pre-model data generator to calculate a competitive trade index based on the point of sale data related to the competitive product subset, the competitive trade index indicative of the target product sales effect.
26 . An apparatus as defined in claim 25 , further comprising a product reference database to provide product category information to the product reference interface.
27 . (canceled)
28 . An apparatus as defined in claim 25 , further comprising a weighting value generator to calculate a Jaccard index based on the target product and each one of the products in the competitive product subset.
29 . An apparatus as defined in claim 25 , further comprising a baseline volume manager to calculate a baseline product volume indicative of product sales absent the trade promotion.
30 . An article of manufacture storing machine accessible instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to:
identify a plurality of competitive products;
calculate a weighting similarity index for each one of the plurality of competitive products based on the target product;
select a competitive product subset of the plurality of competitive products, each of the competitive products within the subset having a target similarity index;
retrieve point of sale (POS) data related to the target product and the competitive product subset;
calculate a competitive trade index based on sales activity of the competitive product subset, the competitive trade index indicative of the target product sales effect; and
generate a report including the competitive trade index.
31 . An article of manufacture as defined in claim 30 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to parse the retrieved POS data and identify at least one of the plurality of competitive products when a threshold number of instances of sale of the at least one competitive product is identified.
32 - 34 . (canceled)
35 . An article of manufacture as defined in claim 30 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to retrieve the POS data for a duration of interest.
36 . An article of manufacture as defined in claim 35 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to retrieve POS data related to the target product and the competitive product subset associated with the duration of interest.
37 . An article of manufacture as defined in claim 36 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to identify a corresponding store associated with the retrieved POS data for the duration of interest to generate a store-week-UPC data set.
38 - 47 . (canceled)
48 . An article of manufacture as defined in claim 30 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to quantify an effect of a new competitive product within the competitive product subset on the target product by calculating an inter-brand distribution value.