Electric power control system and process

1. A method comprising:

detecting, by an electronic meter, measurements of electricity supplied to one or more electrical devices via a voltage regulator;

computing, by a voltage controller, an estimated deviant voltage level based on varying electrical consumption by the one or more electrical devices, the estimated deviant voltage level computed based on a predetermined confidence level and the measurements, wherein the predetermined confidence level corresponds to a probability distribution indicative of a characteristic of the electricity supplied to the electrical device; and

adjusting, by the voltage regulator, responsive to the estimated deviant voltage, a voltage level output of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices.

2. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the voltage regulator comprises multiple tap settings with each tap setting supplying electricity with a different voltage level, and wherein adjusting the voltage level output of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices based on the estimated deviant voltage level comprises:

selecting one of the multiple tap settings to supply electricity to the one or more electrical devices based on the estimated deviant voltage level.

3. The method of claim 2 , wherein selecting one of the multiple tap outputs to supply electricity to the one or more electrical devices based on the estimated deviant voltage level further comprises:

asserting a decrease in one of the multiple tap settings if either a selected estimated deviant voltage exceeds a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage or an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of the selected estimated deviant voltage exceeds the predetermined voltage level.

4. The method of claim 2 , wherein selecting one of the multiple tap settings to supply electricity to the one or more electrical devices based on the estimated deviant voltage level further comprises:

asserting an increase in one of the multiple tap settings if either a selected estimated deviant voltage falls below a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage, or an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of a selected minimum estimated deviant voltage falls below the predetermined voltage level.

5. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein the computing of the estimated deviant voltage level responsive to the varying electrical consumption by the one or more electrical devices comprises at least one of:

(i) estimating a low-pass spectral behavior of one or more observed voltage time series of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices, with a spectral cutoff frequency consistent with a voltage adjustment decision period;

(ii) estimating a dispersion or variance of each observed voltage level;

(iii) estimating a first-order envelope of the minimum values of each observed voltage level;

(iv) applying weighting factors to the estimated dispersions consistent with configured confidence specifications thereby estimating a voltage deviation that will not be exceeded with the specified confidence;

(v) computing a forecast minimum for each observed voltage by combining the results of (i), (iii), and (iv) and selecting a forecast minimum voltage from these results;

(vi) comparing the selected forecast minimum voltage against a prespecified voltage bound;

(vii) incrementing a nonlinear weighted time integral for the selected forecast minimum voltage if the forecast minimum voltage is less than one voltage regulator tap step voltage below the target but greater than a lower voltage bound; and

(viii) decrementing a nonlinear weighted time integral if the selected forecast minimum voltage approaches the target voltage closer than one voltage regulator tap step voltage.

6. The method as recited in claim 1 wherein detecting measurements of electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices via the voltage regulator comprises:

detecting a tap setting and a regulator load voltage of one or more taps of the voltage regulator.

7. The method as recited in claim 1 , wherein computing the estimated deviant voltage level comprises:

filtering the voltage time series of the supplied electricity to derive a filtered voltage time series;

estimating a smooth delay compensated zero-mean dispersion of the voltage time series; and

producing a delay compensated smoothed negative peak envelope of the voltage time series.

8. A system comprising:

an electronic meter configured to detect measurements of electricity supplied to one or more devices via a voltage regulator;

a processor in communication with the electronic meter configured to compute an estimated deviant voltage level based on varying electrical consumption by the one or more electrical devices, the estimated deviant voltage level computed based on a predetermined confidence level and the measurements, wherein the predetermined confidence level corresponds to a probability distribution indicative of a characteristic of the electricity supplied to the electrical device; and

the voltage regulator configured to receive a signal from the processor indicating an adjustment to a voltage level output of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices.

9. The system as recited in claim 8 wherein the voltage regulator includes multiple tap settings with each tap setting operative to supply electricity with a different voltage level, and wherein the processor further comprises:

a control mechanism configured to generate a signal indicating to select one of the regulator multiple tap settings supplying electricity to the one or more electrical devices based on the estimated deviant voltage level.

10. The system as recited in claim 9 wherein the electronic meter comprises:

means for detecting a tap position and a regulator load voltage of one or more taps of the regulating transformer.

11. The system of claim 9 , wherein the control mechanism configured to select one of the multiple tap settings comprises:

means for asserting a decrease in one of the multiple tap settings either if a selected estimated deviant voltage exceeds a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage or if an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of a selected estimated deviant voltage exceeds the predetermined voltage level.

12. The system of claim 9 , wherein the control mechanism further comprises:

means for asserting an increase in one of the multiple tap settings either if a selected estimated deviant voltage fall below a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage, or if an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of a selected minimum estimated deviant voltage falls below the predetermined voltage level.

13. The system as recited in claim 8 wherein the processor computes the deviant voltage level by:

(i) estimating a low-pass spectral behavior of each observed voltage time series of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices, with a spectral cutoff frequency consistent with a voltage adjustment decision period;

(ii) estimating a dispersion or variance of each observed voltage;

(iii) estimating a first-order envelope of the minimum values of each observed voltage;

(iv) applying weighting factors to the estimated dispersions consistent with configured confidence specifications thereby estimating a voltage deviation that will not be exceeded consistent with the specified confidence;

(v) computing a forecast minimum for each observed voltage from the results in (i), (iii), and (iv) and selecting a forecast minimum voltage from these results;

(vi) comparing the selected forecast minimum voltage against a prespecified voltage bound;

(vii) incrementing a nonlinear weighted time integral for the selected forecast minimum voltage if the forecast minimum voltage is less than one regulator tap step voltage below the target but greater than a lower voltage bound; and

(viii) decrementing a nonlinear weighted time integral if the selected forecast minimum voltage approaches the target voltage closer than one regulator tap step voltage.

14. The system as recited in claim 8 , wherein the processor is further configured to:

process the voltage time series of the supplied electricity along multiple paths;

filter the voltage time series to derive a filtered voltage time series;

estimate a smooth delay compensated zero-mean dispersion or variance of the voltage time series; and

produce a delay compensated smoothed negative peak envelope of the voltage time series.

15. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising instructions which when executed by a processor comprise instructions to:

detect measurements of electricity supplied to one or more devices via a voltage regulator;

compute an estimated deviant voltage level based on varying electrical consumption by the one or more electrical devices, the estimated deviant voltage level computed based on a predetermined confidence level and the measurements, wherein the predetermined confidence level corresponds to a probability distribution indicative of a characteristic of the electricity supplied to the electrical device; and

provide a signal to adjust a voltage level output of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices based on the computed estimated deviant voltage level.

16. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium as recited in claim 15 , wherein the power source has a multiple tap settings with each tap settings supplying electricity with a different voltage level, and wherein the provided signal to adjust the voltage level output of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices based on the computed deviant voltage level comprises:

indicating a selection of one of the multiple tap settings to supply electricity to the one or more electrical devices based on the computed estimated deviant voltage level.

17. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 16 , wherein the instructions further comprise instructions to:

assert a decrease in one of the multiple tap settings if either a selected estimated deviant voltage exceeds a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage or an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of a selected minimum estimated deviant voltage exceeds the predetermined voltage level.

18. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium of claim 16 , wherein the instructions further comprise instructions to:

assert an increase in one of the multiple tap settings if either a selected estimated deviant voltage fall below a predetermined voltage level derived from a setpoint voltage, or an accumulated nonlinear weighted time integral of a selected minimum estimated deviant voltage falls below the predetermined voltage level.

19. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium as recited in claim 15 , wherein the instructions, which when executed by a processor to compute an estimated deviant voltage level, further comprise instructions to:

(i) estimate a low-pass spectral behavior of each observed voltage time series of the electricity supplied to the one or more electrical devices, with a spectral cutoff frequency consistent with a voltage adjustment decision period;

(ii) estimate a dispersion or variance of each observed voltage time series;

(iii) estimate a first-order envelope of the minimum values of each observed voltage time series;

(iv) apply weighting factors to the estimated dispersions consistent with configured confidence specifications thereby estimating a voltage deviation that will not be exceeded with the specified confidence;

(v) compute a forecast minimum for each observed voltage from the results in (i), (iii), and (iv) and selecting a forecast minimum voltage from these results;

(vi) compare the selected forecast minimum voltage against a prespecified voltage bound;

(vii) increment a nonlinear weighted time integral for the selected forecast minimum voltage if the forecast minimum voltage is less than one regulator tap step voltage below the target but greater than a lower voltage bound; and

(viii) decrement a nonlinear weighted time integral if the selected forecast minimum voltage approaches the target voltage closer than one regulator tap step voltage.

20. The non-transitory computer readable storage medium as recited in claim 15 , wherein the instructions further comprise instructions to:

filter the voltage time series to derive a filtered voltage time series;

estimate a smooth delay compensated zero-mean dispersion of the voltage time series; and

produce a delay compensated smoothed negative peak envelope of the voltage time series.