Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

1. A process comprising:

determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit;

determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit; and

quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode of reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

2. A process comprising:

determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit;

determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit; and

quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode of reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation,

wherein said step of determining a probability of a failure of a system being analyzed as a function of time to failure limit includes:

a) determining a risk probability for at least one failure mode, the risk probability corresponding to a likelihood that the at least one failure mode will occur in the system being analyzed;

b) determining a correlation ranking for at least one failure signature, the correlation ranking corresponding to a likelihood that the at least one failure signature represents the at least one failure mode;

c) determining a failure mode risk probability for the at least one failure signature comparing the correlation ranking of the at least one failure signature to a sum of all correlation rankings for a signature set, the signature set including at least the at least one failure signature; and

d) determining a distribution corresponding to a probability that the at least one failure signature will occur at a given time to failure limit in the system being analyzed.

3. The method of claim 2 , wherein said step (a) is performed in response to historical data of actual failures, predicted data of future failures, or both.

4. The method of claim 2 , wherein said step (a) includes:

predicting a cluster of systems being analyzed;

determining a probability that the failure mode will occur in each system in the cluster; and

averaging the probabilities to determine an overall probability that the failure mode will occur in the system being analyzed.

5. The system of claim 2 , wherein the correlation ranking of said step (b) is in a range from 0-5.

6. The method of claim 2 , wherein said step (d) is only performed for a selected failure signature if the selected failure signature has a non-zero correlation ranking.

7. The method of claim 2 , wherein the system being analyzed is a machine or a process.

8. The method of claim 2 , wherein said step of determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure as a function of a time to failure limit includes:

e) determining an effectiveness score corresponding to an ability to respond to the at least one failure signature using a failure detection system to prevent the at least one failure mode from reaching a failure limit in the system being analyzed as a function of time to failure limit.

9. The method of claim 8 , wherein said step of quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure and the probability of the mitigation includes:

f) calculating a failure limit occurrence probability reductions for the at least one signature in response to the effectiveness score;

g) calculating a sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions from said step (f) for each signature in the signature set; and

h) comparing the sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions for the failure detection system to a sum of overall failure limit occurrence probabilities in the system being analyzed without implementation of the failure detection system to determine a risk reduction fraction of the failure detection system.

10. The method of claim 9 , wherein said step (f) includes integrating on the computer a product of a function corresponding to the distribution of said step (d) and a function corresponding to the effectiveness score of said step (e).

11. The method of claim 9 , wherein the failure detection system is a first failure detection system, and wherein said step (h) includes dividing the sum of failure limit occurrence probabilities for the first failure detection system by a sum of failure limit occurrence probabilities for a second failure detection system.

12. The method of claim 8 , wherein said step of determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure as a function of a time to failure limit includes:

f) calculating a failure limit occurrence probability reduction for the at least one signature in response to the effectiveness score;

g) selectively repeating steps (a)-(f) for a plurality of failure modes;

h) calculating a sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions from said step (g) for each signature in the signature set; and

i) comparing the sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions for the failure detection system to a sum of overall failure limit occurrence probabilities in the system being analyzed without implementation of the failure detection system to determine a risk reduction of the failure detection system.

13. A computer-implemented system, comprising:

a storage module storing at least one failure mode for a system being analyzed; and

a microprocessor, the microprocessor being operable to determine a probability of the at least one failure mode of the system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determine a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantify a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

14. The system of claim 13 , wherein an input/output module is also operable to receive a plurality of failure signatures, and to output the risk reduction.

15. A computer-implemented system, comprising:

a storage module storing at least one failure mode for a system being analyzed;

a microprocessor, the microprocessor being operable to determine a probability of the at least one failure mode of the system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determine a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantify a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation; and

an input/output module operable to receive a plurality of failure signatures, and to output the risk reduction,

wherein the microprocessor determines a probability of a failure of a system being analyzed as a function of time to failure limit by determining a risk probability for at least one failure mode, determining a correlation ranking for at least one failure signature, determining a failure mode risk probability for the at least one failure signature comparing the correlation ranking of the at least one failure signature to a sum of all correlation rankings for a signature set, and determining a distribution corresponding to a probability that the at least one failure signature will occur at a given time to failure limit in the system being analyzed.

16. The system of claim 15 , wherein the microprocessor determines a probability of a mitigation of the failure as a function of a time to failure limit by determining an effectiveness score corresponding to an ability to respond to the at least one failure signature using a failure detection system to prevent the at least one failure mode from reaching a failure limit in the system being analyzed as a function of time to failure limit.

17. The system of claim 16 , wherein the microprocessor quantifies a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure and the probability of the mitigation by calculating a failure limit occurrence probability reduction for the at least one signature in response to the effectiveness score, calculating a sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions for each signature in the signature set, and comparing the sum of failure limit occurrence probability reductions for the failure detection system to a sum of overall failure limit occurrence probabilities in the system being analyzed without implementation of the failure detection system to determine a risk reduction of the failure detection system.