Method for improving the prediction of polymer properties
View Patent ↗A method for improving the prediction of polymer properties and a system having improved polymer property prediction capabilities is provided. The method for improving the prediction of polymer properties comprises: (1) providing a polymer; (2) providing a prediction model; (3) utilizing said prediction model to define an average polymer property prediction value; (4) determining a feasible range; (5) measuring one or more properties of said polymer; (6) determining whether said one or measured polymer properties are within said feasible range: (7) validating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall within the feasible range or invalidating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall outside of the feasible range; (8) optionally updating said prediction model; (9) repeating said previous steps at least one or more times; and (10) thereby improving the prediction of polymer properties.
1. A method for improving the prediction of polymer properties comprising the steps of:
providing a polymer;
providing a prediction model based on material balance and polymer properties;
utilizing said prediction model to define an average polymer property prediction value, wherein said average polymer property prediction value is x p ;
determining a feasible range;
measuring one or more properties of said polymer;
determining whether said one or more measured polymer properties are within said feasible range;
validating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall within the feasible range or invalidating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall outside of the feasible range;
updating said prediction model;
repeating said previous steps at least one or more times until updating said prediction model at least one more time; and
thereby improving the prediction of polymer properties;
wherein said feasible range is determined via
x
Low
=
x
P
(
1
-
σ
x
p
-
2
ln
(
1
-
f
)
)
-
ax
p
dt
T
u
;
and
x
High
=
x
P
(
1
+
σ
x
p
-
2
ln
(
1
-
f
)
)
+
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
T
u
;
wherein said polymer property prediction value is logarithmic, and wherein
x Low is the lowest value expected for the lab value;
x High is the highest value expected for the lab value;
f is the probability that the sample is part of the collection of samples;
σ is the standard deviation of the lab measurement method;
x p is the model predicted bed average value;
T u is the amount of time uncertainty in the exact sample time; and
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
is the derivate of x p with respect to time.
2. The method for improving the prediction of polymer properties according to claim 1 , wherein said
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
is determined via
x
p
k
-
x
p
k
-
1
t
k
-
t
k
-
1
;
wherein
k represents the current time; and
k−1 represents the time one calculation interval previously.
3. A method for improving the prediction of polymer properties comprising the steps of:
providing a polymer;
providing a prediction model based on material balance and polymer properties;
utilizing said prediction model to define an average polymer property prediction value, wherein said average polymer property prediction value is x p ;
determining a feasible range;
measuring one or more properties of said polymer;
determining whether said one or more measured polymer properties are within said feasible range;
validating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall within the feasible range or invalidating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall outside of the feasible range;
updating said prediction model;
repeating said previous steps at least one or more times until updating said prediction model at least one more time; and
thereby improving the prediction of polymer properties;
wherein said feasible range is determined via
x
Low
=
x
P
-
σ
-
2
ln
(
1
-
f
)
-
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
T
n
;
and
x
High
=
x
P
+
σ
-
2
ln
(
1
-
f
)
+
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
T
u
;
wherein said polymer property prediction value is non-logarithmic, and wherein
x Low is the lowest value expected for the lab value;
x High is the highest value expected for the lab value;
f is the probability that the sample is part of the collection of samples;
σ is the standard deviation of the lab measurement method;
x p is the model predicted bed average value;
T u is the amount of time uncertainty in the exact sample time; and
ⅆ
x
p
ⅆ
t
is the derivative of x p with respect to time.
4. A method for improving the prediction of polymer properties comprising the steps of:
providing a polymer;
providing a prediction model based on material balance and polymer properties;
utilizing said prediction model to define an average polymer property prediction value, wherein said average polymer property prediction value is x p ;
determining a feasible range;
measuring one or more properties of said polymer;
determining whether said one or more measured polymer properties are within said feasible range;
validating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall within the feasible range or invalidating said one or more measured polymer properties if said one or more measured polymer properties fall outside of the feasible range;
updating said prediction model;
repeating said previous steps at least one or more times until updating said prediction model at least one more time; and
thereby improving the prediction of polymer properties;
wherein said feasible range is determined via x Low =x p (1−delta) u ; and
x High =x p (1+delta); wherein x p is the model predicted bed average value.