Retail planning application and method for consumer products
View Patent ↗An improved forecasting and modeling tool for planning and estimating sales of consumer products, including social expression products in a retail operation. The tool enables retailers to create a plan based on information shared between the retailer and vendor of social expression products. The methodology employed begins with actual sales totals for the prior term and the plan goal for the current term and provides financial calculations based on a variety of factors to determine the sales bridge needed to meet the current term goal. Information relating to actual sales, significant events, door activity, current forecast, trending data, and vendor initiatives are input into the application and are used in financial calculations to determine a current term sales plan.
1. A computer implemented method for estimating retail sales comprising:
using a computer with a processor and a memory to carry out the following steps:
establishing prior term adjustments (PTA) by determining financial impact of prior term activities, sales and/or events that are not likely to occur in a current term;
calculating a current term baseline (CTB) by subtracting the PTA from the total prior term sales dollars;
establishing current term adjustments (CTA) by estimating financial impact of current term activities, trends, seasonal sales and/or initiatives; and
calculating total estimated sales for the current term by adding the CTB to the CTA.
2. The method of claim 1 further comprising the steps of:
establishing a current term sales goal; and
calculating a current term sales bridge by subtracting the total estimated sales for the current term from the current term sales goal.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the prior term activities include new retail store openings and retail store closings.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the steps are implemented in a spreadsheet application on the computer.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the computer displays the data in a graphical user interface.
6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the computer summarizes and displays the data in various graphs and/or charts.
7. The method of claim 4 , wherein the spreadsheet applications comprises embedded instructions for updating calculated values based on changes to input data.
8. The method of claim 4 , wherein the spreadsheet application contains a dashboard which visually summarizes user-entered and spreadsheet-generated data.
9. The method of claim 1 further comprising the steps of:
determining total prior term sales dollars;
determining prior term door activity and estimated financial impact of said activity;
determining significant events occurring during the prior term and estimated financial impact of said events;
determining prior term sales of seasonal non-card merchandise;
calculating an adjusted financial baseline (AFB) by adding the estimated financial impact of prior term door activity, significant events and prior term sales of seasonal non-card merchandise;
calculating a current term baseline (CTB) by subtracting the AFB from the total term sales dollars;
adjusting the CTB by entering category level trending data and applying said trending data to the CTB;
determining current term door activity and estimated financial impact of said activity;
determining estimated current term seasonal non-card merchandise sales;
determining current term initiatives and estimated financial impact of said initiatives; and
calculating total estimated sales for the current term by adding the estimated financial impact of the current term door activity, the current term seasonal non-card merchandise sales and the estimated financial impact of the current term initiatives to the CTB.
10. The method of claim 9 , further comprising the step of visually displaying the data in graphs and/or charts.