Methods and systems for inferring aircraft parameters
View Patent ↗A method and system suitable for inferring trajectory predictor parameters of aircraft for the purpose of predicting aircraft trajectories. The method and system involve receiving trajectory prediction information regarding an aircraft, and then using this information to infer (extract) trajectory predictor parameters of the aircraft that are otherwise unknown to a ground automation system. The trajectory predictor parameters can then be applied to one or more trajectory predictors of the ground automation system to predict a trajectory of the aircraft. In certain embodiments, the method and system can utilize available air-ground communication link capabilities, which may include data link capabilities available as part of trajectory-based operations (TBO).
1. A method of inferring aircraft performance parameters capable of being used by a trajectory predictor to predict trajectories of an aircraft, the method comprising:
receiving, by an air traffic control system, trajectory prediction information regarding an aircraft including at least one change point in a predicted vertical profile; and then
using the trajectory prediction information to infer, in a parameter inference process performed by the air traffic control system, aircraft performance parameters of the aircraft that are otherwise unknown to a ground automation system, wherein parameter inference process uses a probability density function initialized with higher probabilities assigned to particular values of an aircraft performance parameter and an updating process to estimate and refine the aircraft performance parameter of the aircraft, and wherein the trajectory prediction information comprises a relative location of the at least one trajectory change point of the aircraft and the aircraft performance parameters comprise takeoff weight of the aircraft inferred from the relative location of the at least one trajectory change point, and the at least one trajectory change comprises at least one of the top of climb or top of descent.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the trajectory prediction information regarding the aircraft is transmitted from the aircraft.
3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the receiving step comprises the use of a communication link between the aircraft and the ground automation system.
4. The method of claim 1 , the method further comprising applying the aircraft performance parameters to one or more trajectory predictors of the ground automation system to predict a trajectory of the aircraft.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the using step comprises estimating at least one of the aircraft performance parameters of the aircraft by comparing the trajectory prediction information of the aircraft to a set of aircraft performance information that was generated with a trajectory predictor by varying the aircraft performance parameters of the aircraft over likely values, and then updating the at least one aircraft performance parameter based on the comparison.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the using step further comprises using surveillance and measured data of the aircraft to infer the aircraft performance parameters of the aircraft.
7. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
initializing the aircraft performance parameters by representing each aircraft performance parameter by a probability density function.