IP Library Granted Patent US 9,396,444
Granted Patent B2
US 9,396,444 · App. 13/335,641 · Granted Jul 19, 2016

Predictive analytics with forecasting model selection

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Quick Facts
Patent No.
US 9,396,444
App. No.
13/335,641
Granted
Jul 19, 2016
Kind
B2
Abstract

Methods and apparatus for predicting network activity with forecasting model selection are disclosed. In one embodiment a network analytics forecasting model with a preferred model error measurement is selected from among a set of model error measurements for a set of network analytics forecasting models. The selecting includes, for each of a set of network analytics forecasting models, calculating a set of predicted network analytics metric values corresponding to individual ones of a set of actual network analytics metric values in a network analytics metrics data set, comparing individual ones of the set of predicted network analytics metric values to corresponding ones of the set of actual network analytics metric values, and generating a model error measurement reflecting the comparing. Future network analytics metric values are predicted using the network analytics forecasting model with the preferred model error measurement.

Claims (52)

1. A method, comprising:

obtaining a network analytics metrics data set including a first set of raw network analytics metric values, the first set of raw network analytics metric values being associated with one or more marketing promotions;

filtering the raw network analytics metric values to generate a reduced network analytics metrics data set, wherein the reduced network analytics metrics data set includes a second set of raw network analytics metric values;

selecting, by one or more processors, a network analytics forecasting model from a set of network analytics forecasting models, wherein each of the set of network analytics forecasting models is associated with a corresponding model error measurement and a set of model parameters, wherein the selecting of the network analytics forecasting model comprises, for each of the set of network analytics forecasting models:

calculating a first set of predicted network analytics metric values corresponding to the second set of raw network analytics metric values; and

generating a model error measurement based on a comparison between the first calculated set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

selecting, based on a parameter set score, a set of parameters for the selected network analytics forecasting model from a plurality of parameter sets, wherein selecting the set of parameters comprises:

calculating a second set of predicted network analytics metric values using the set of parameters and the selected network analytics forecasting model; and

generating the parameter set score for the set of parameters based on a difference between the second set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

predicting subsequent network analytics metric values using the selected network analytics forecasting model and the selected set of parameters;

determining the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions using the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, the selected network analytics forecasting model, and the selected set of parameters;

providing information related to an advertising campaign based on the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions.

2. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

providing a graphical user interface for presenting information related to the raw network analytics metric values, one or more details related to the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, and one or more quality control statistics.

3. The method of claim 1 , further comprising receiving, from a user, a confidence value, wherein selection of the network analytics forecasting model is further based on the confidence value.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the selecting of the set of parameters occurs subsequent to the selecting of the network analytics forecasting model.

5. The method of claim 1 , further comprising receiving, from a user, an override selection indicating another network analytics forecasting model, wherein the predicting the subsequent network analytics metric values uses the another network analytics forecasting model.

6. A system, comprising:

a processor configured to execute instructions stored in a non-transitory computer readable medium to perform operations, the operations comprising:

obtaining a network analytics metrics data set including a first set of raw network analytics metric values, the first set of raw network analytics metric values being associated with one or more marketing promotions;

filtering the raw network analytics metric values to generate a reduced network analytics metrics data set, wherein the reduced network analytics metrics data set includes a second set of raw network analytics metric values;

selecting a network analytics forecasting model from a set of network analytics forecasting models, wherein each of the set of network analytics forecasting models is associated with a corresponding model error measurement and a set of model parameters, wherein the selecting of the network analytics forecasting model comprises, for each of the set of network analytics forecasting models:

calculating a first set of predicted network analytics metric values corresponding to the second set of raw network analytics metric values; and

generating a model error measurement based on a comparison between the first calculated set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

selecting, based on a parameter set score, a set of parameters for the selected network analytics forecasting model from a plurality of parameter sets, wherein selecting the set of parameters comprises:

calculating a second set of predicted network analytics metric values using the parameter set and the selected network analytics forecasting model; and

generating the parameter set score for the set of parameters based on a difference between the second set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

predicting subsequent network analytics metric values using the selected network analytics forecasting model and the selected set of parameters;

determining the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions using the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, the selected network analytics forecasting model, and the selected set of parameters;

providing information related to an advertising campaign based on the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions.

7. The system of claim 6 , wherein the operations further comprise:

providing a graphical user interface for presenting information related to the raw network analytics metric values, one or more details related to the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, and one or more quality control statistics.

8. The system of claim 6 , wherein the operations further comprise receiving, from a user, a confidence value, wherein selection of the network analytics forecasting model is further based on the confidence value.

9. The system of claim 6 , wherein the selecting of the set of parameters occurs subsequent to the selecting of the network analytics forecasting model.

10. The system of claim 6 , wherein the operations further comprise receiving, from a user, an override selection indicating another network analytics forecasting model, wherein the predicting the subsequent network analytics metric values uses the another network analytics forecasting model.

11. A non-transitory computer-readable medium on which is encoded program code, the program code comprising:

program code for obtaining a network analytics metrics data set including a first set of raw network analytics metric values, the first set of raw network analytics metric values being associated with one or more marketing promotions;

program code for filtering the raw network analytics metric values to generate a reduced network analytics metrics data set, wherein the reduced network analytics metrics data set includes a second set of raw network analytics metric values;

program code for selecting a network analytics forecasting model from a set of network analytics forecasting models, wherein each of the set of network analytics forecasting models is associated with a corresponding model error measurement and a set of model parameters, wherein the program code for selecting of the network analytics forecasting model includes, for each of the set of network analytics forecasting models:

program code for calculating a first set of predicted network analytics metric values corresponding to the second set of raw network analytics metric values; and

program code for generating a model error measurement based on a comparison between the first calculated set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

program code for selecting, based on a parameter set score, a set of parameters for the selected network analytics forecasting model from a plurality of parameter sets, wherein selecting the set of parameters includes:

program code for calculating a second set of predicted network analytics metric values using the parameter set and the selected network analytics forecasting model; and

program code for generating the parameter set score for the set of parameters based on a difference between the second set of predicted network analytics metric values and the second set of raw network analytics metric values;

program code for predicting subsequent network analytics metric values using the selected network analytics forecasting model and the selected set of parameters;

program code for determining the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions using the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, the selected network analytics forecasting model, and the selected set of parameters;

program code for providing information related to an advertising campaign based on the effectiveness of the one or more marketing promotions.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11 , further comprising:

program code for providing a graphical user interface for presenting information related to the raw network analytics metric values, one or more details related to the predicted subsequent network analytics metric values, and one or more quality control statistics.

13. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11 , further comprising program code for receiving, from a user, a confidence value, wherein selection of the network analytics forecasting model is further based on the confidence value.

14. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11 , wherein the selecting of the set of parameters occurs subsequent to the selecting of the network analytics forecasting model.

15. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11 , further comprising program code for receiving, from a user, an override selection indicating another network analytics forecasting model, wherein the predicting the subsequent network analytics metric values uses the another network analytics forecasting model.

Assignments (1)
CHANGE OF NAME Recorded Mar 6, 2019
From: ADOBE SYSTEMS INCORPORATED
To: ADOBE INC.
Reel/Frame 048525/0042 →