NO-SHOW FORECAST METHODS AND SYSTEMS
A computer based system for maximizing revenue by determining an optimal quantity of a product to be sold is disclosed. The system determines the optimal number of seats to be sold for a flight based upon the flight's capacity and forecasted costs associated with the flight. The forecasting is based upon probabilistic distribution models takes into account passenger itinerary data, passenger and market historical data, whether a passenger has flown on a previous leg of an itinerary, the ripple denied boarding effect of reaccommodating a denied passenger. The system evaluates the potential effect of double selling a unit of inventory (e.g., seats). Downstream inventory control, revenue management and reservations systems may use the optimization data to affect the operation of the airline.
1 . A system comprising:
a network interface communicating with a memory;
the memory communicating with a processor for enabling revenue maximization;
the processor, when executing a computer program, executes operations comprising:
forecasting, by the processor, flight costs associated with a flight;
determining, by the processor, a booked passenger no-show forecast (NSF) for each booked passenger associated with the flight, wherein the booked passenger NSF for each respective passenger is based upon the next active leg (NAL) of the respective passenger;
aggregating, by the processor, the booked passenger NSF and an unbooked passenger NSF to create a flight NSF; and
determining, by the processor, an authorized seat allocation (AU) for the flight based upon the NSF.
2 . The system of claim 1 , the operations further comprising determining based upon a first booked passenger itinerary for a first booked passenger, a first booked passenger NAL.
3 . The system of claim 2 , the operations further comprising determining, based upon the first booked passenger NAL, a first booked passenger forecast market for the first booked passenger and determining, based upon the passenger forecast market, a first booked passenger forecast coefficient for the first booked passenger.
4 . The system of claim 3 , the operations further comprising assigning, based upon the first booked passenger forecast coefficient a first booked passenger NSF to the first booked passenger and associating the first booked passenger NSF with the flight.
5 . The system of claim 4 , the operations further comprising associating, the first booked passenger NSF to each leg in the first booked passenger itinerary, wherein the flight is one leg in the first booked passenger itinerary.
6 . The system of claim 2 , wherein the flight and the first booked passenger NAIL are different.
7 . The system of claim 2 , wherein the determining the first booked passenger NSF for the flight is dependent upon a previous leg NSF for the first booked passenger, wherein the previous leg NSF is associated with a previous leg, wherein the first booked passenger itinerary is comprised of a plurality of legs, wherein the flight and the previous leg are among the plurality of legs.
8 . The system of claim 7 , wherein the first booked passenger NSF is calculated as at least one of a joint probability with the previous leg NSF and a conditional probability given the previous leg NSF.
9 . The system of claim 2 , the operations further comprising adjusting the first booked passenger NSF in response to determining, that the first booked passenger NAL and the flight are scheduled for the same day.
10 . The system of claim 2 , wherein the determining the first booked passenger NSF for each booked passenger associated with the flight comprises analyzing, for each booked passenger, a complete passenger itinerary for the respective passenger.
11 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the booked passenger NSF is based upon at least one of whether the flight is an originating flight for the passenger and whether the flight is a connecting flight for the first booked passenger.
12 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the first booked passenger NSF is based upon at least one of whether the flight represents an outbound segment, an intermittent segment and a return segment of the first booked passenger itinerary.
13 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the booked passenger NSF is based upon at least one of a previous leg, a subsequent leg and a direction of travel of the first booked passenger.
14 . The system of claim 1 , the operations further comprising, adjusting the flight NSF such that the flight NSF is bound within a lower bound and an upper bound.
15 . The system of claim 14 , wherein the lower bound and the upper bound are percentiles of a historical NSF, wherein the historical NSF is based upon previous NSF data for flights serving the same directional market.
16 . The system of claim 3 , the operations further comprising accessing a historical NSF database to determine at least one of the first booked passenger NSF coefficient and a unbooked passenger NSF, wherein the historical NSF database comprises historical data compiled according to a plurality of factors, the factors comprising forecast market and booking period.
17 . The system of claim 16 , the operations further comprising:
determining, based upon the number of booked passengers for the flight and based upon the booked passenger NSF, a number of unbooked passengers for the flight;
determining, based upon a flight date and an analysis date, a number of days before the flight is scheduled to depart; and
determining, based upon the number of days, a booking period, wherein the determining the unbooked passenger NSF based upon the booking period.
18 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the determining an authorized seat allocation comprises determining the authorized seat allocation for the flight that minimizes an overbooking cost, wherein the overbooking cost is based upon the flight costs and the flight NSF, and wherein the flight costs comprise a forecasted spoiled seat cost for the flight and a denied boarding cost for the flight.
19 . A computer-based method, comprising:
forecasting, by a no-show forecast (NSF) computer, flight costs associated with a flight;
determining, by the computer, a booked passenger NSF for each booked passenger associated with the flight, wherein the booked passenger NSF for each respective passenger is based upon a next active leg (NAL) of the respective passenger;
aggregating, by the computer, the booked passenger NSF and an unbooked passenger NSF to create a flight NSF;
determining, by the computer, an authorized seat allocation for the flight based upon the flight NSF; and
updating, by the computer, an authorization parameter for the flight based upon the authorized seat allocation.
20 . A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having computer-executable instructions stored thereon that, in response to execution by a no-show forecast (NSF) computer, causes the computer perform a operations comprising:
forecasting, by the computer, flight costs associated with a flight;
determining, by the computer, a booked passenger NSF for each booked passenger associated with the flight, wherein the booked passenger NSF for each respective passenger is based upon the next active leg (NAL) of the respective passenger;
aggregating, by the computer, the booked passenger NSF and an unbooked passenger NSF to create a flight NSF;
determining, by the computer, an authorized seat allocation for the flight based upon the flight NSF; and
updating, by the computer, an authorization parameter for the flight based upon the authorized seat allocation.