Prediction of maintenance operations on an aircraft engine

1. A method for predicting maintenance operations on a current aircraft engine, comprising:

determining, using a processor and a simulation on a set of failure models associated with the current aircraft engine, a failure age corresponding to an age of the current engine at a time of failure, for each failure model of the set of failure models, each said failure model corresponding to a given failure and being represented by a law for the cumulated probability of failure as a function of time expressed in terms of flight cycles;

selecting, using the processor, a relevant failure model by selecting one of said failure models of said set of failure models, the relevant failure model having a minimum failure age;

determining, using the processor, a relevant first rules module corresponding to the relevant failure model, the relevant first rules module defining a plurality of workscopes as a function of the age of the current aircraft engine expressed in terms of flight cycles;

from the plurality of workscopes of the relevant first rules module, selecting, using the processor, a relevant minimum workscope associated with the minimum failure age; and

determining, using the processor, a required final maintenance workscope to be done on the current aircraft engine from the relevant minimum workscope and from a required number of flight cycles before a next maintenance operation.

2. The method according to claim 1 , wherein said determining the failure age is based on input of a set of parameters, the set of parameters including the following parameters: failure age, operating duration of the current engine since a last shop visit, rank of a shop visit, potential remaining life for each of a plurality of life limited parts (LLP) of the current engine, and reconstruction constraints of the current engine.

3. The method according to claim 2 , wherein said set of parameters is modified after a maintenance operation on the current aircraft engine has been done.

4. The method according to claim 1 , wherein said first rules module is selected from among a set of first rules modules defined previously during an initialization phase, each of said first rules modules being associated with a determined failure model and a determined rank of a shop visit.

5. The method according to claim 1 , wherein said failure models are derived from analysis of operating experience on a fleet of engines including data regarding a number of engines, an operating environment of each engine, a model of each engine, an operational condition of each engine, a maintenance location of each engine, and a duration between entry of each engine in a workshop and its exit from the workshop.

6. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the minimum failure age defines a predicted age of the current aircraft engine at the time of failure.

7. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the minimum failure age indicates a date of a shop visit, and said determining the required final maintenance workscope indicates a workscope to be performed at the date of the shop visit.

8. The method according to claim 1 , wherein said selecting the relevant failure model includes selecting the relevant failure model having the minimum failure age from among a set of failure ages corresponding to said set of failure models.

9. The method according to claim 1 , wherein each said failure model of the set of failure models corresponds to a different cause of failure for the current aircraft engine.

10. A system for predicting maintenance operations on a current aircraft engine, comprising:

processing circuitry configured to

determine, using a simulation on a set of failure models associated with the current aircraft engine, a failure age corresponding to an age of the current engine at a time of failure, for each failure model of the set of failure models, each said failure module corresponding to a given failure and being represented by a law for the cumulated probability of failure as a function of time expressed in terms of flight cycles;

select a relevant failure model by selecting one of said failure models of said set of failure models, the relevant failure model having a minimum failure age;

determine a relevant first rules module corresponding to the relevant failure model, the relevant first rules module defining a plurality of workscopes as a function of the age of the current aircraft engine expressed in terms of flight cycles;

from the plurality of workscopes of the relevant first rules module, select a relevant minimum workscope associated with the minimum failure age; and

determine a required final maintenance workscope to be done on the current aircraft engine from the relevant minimum workscope and from a required number of flight cycles before a next maintenance operation.

11. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer-readable instructions that, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform a method comprising:

determining, using a simulation on a set of failure models associated with the current aircraft engine, a failure age corresponding to an age of the current engine at a time of failure, for each failure model of the set of failure models, each said failure module corresponding to a given failure and being represented by a law for the cumulated probability of failure as a function of time expressed in terms of flight cycles;

selecting a relevant failure model by selecting one of said failure models of said set of failure models, the relevant failure model having a minimum failure age;

determining a relevant first rules module corresponding to the relevant failure model, the relevant first rules module defining a plurality of workscopes as a function of the age of the current aircraft engine expressed in terms of flight cycles;

from the plurality of workscopes of the relevant first rules module, selecting a relevant minimum workscope associated with the minimum failure age; and

determining a required final maintenance workscope to be done on the current aircraft engine from the relevant minimum workscope and from a required number of flight cycles before a next maintenance operation.