METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR RISK MINING AND FOR GENERATING ENTITY RISK PROFILES AND FOR PREDICTING BEHAVIOR OF SECURITY
A computer implemented method for mining risks includes providing a set of risk-indicating patterns on a computing device; querying a corpus using the computing device to identify a set of potential risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm based, at least in part, on the set of risk-indicating patterns associated with the corpus; comparing the set of potential risks with the risk-indicating patterns to obtain a set of prerequisite risks; generating a signal representative of the set of prerequisite risks; storing the signal representative of the set of prerequisite risks in an electronic memory; aggregating potential risks linked to an entity to an entity risk profile (ERP); and predicting a movement in a security associated with an entity.
1 . A computer implemented automated method comprising:
a. generating a current entity-specific risk profile;
b. determining a risk difference between a historical risk profile and the current entity-specific risk profile;
c. based upon the risk difference, predicting a movement of a price of a security associated with an entity, the entity being the entity for which the current entity-specific risk profile was generated; and
d. electronically transmitting the movement.
2 . The method of claim 1 wherein the movement is either up or down and the security is a share of stock in the entity.
3 . The method of claim 1 wherein the step of predicting is further based upon:
a. a second risk difference, the second risk difference being between a historical entity-specific risk profile and a second historical risk profile; and
b. a second movement of the price of the security associated with the entity based upon a historical entity-specific risk profile price and a second historical risk profile price, the historical entity-specific risk profile price being the price of the security at a time associated with the historical entity-specific risk profile and the second historical risk profile price being the price of the security at a different time associated with the second historical risk profile.
4 . The method of claim 3 wherein the movement is also associated with an absolute value.
5 . The method of claim 4 wherein the absolute value is based upon the second movement.
6 . The method of claim 5 wherein the step of electronically transmitting further comprises:
a. determining from a database a set of users interested in the entity; and
b. generating a message comprising the movement, the message being addressed to the set of users.
7 . The method of claim 1 wherein the historical risk profile is related to the entity.
8 . The method of claim 1 wherein the historical risk profile is related to an industry of the entity.
9 . The method of claim 1 wherein the current entity-specific risk profile comprises:
a. an operational risk indicator;
b. a legal risk indicator;
c. a markets risk indicator;
d. a financial risk indicator;
e. a set of idiosyncratic risk information; and
f. a set of trend information.
10 . The method of claim 9 wherein the set of trend information comprises a set of self-trend information and a set of peer trend information.
11 . The method of claim 1 wherein generating a current entity-specific risk profile further comprises:
a. automatically analyzing by a computer a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity;
b. based upon the step of automatically analyzing, automatically generating by the computer the current entity-specific risk profile (“ERP”) associated with the entity, the current entity-specific risk profile comprising a first risk component and a second risk component; and
c. storing the current entity-specific risk profile in the memory.
12 . The method of claim 11 , wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics comprises identifying a set of entity-specific risks based at least in part on a set of risk-indicating patterns associated with a corpus of documents.
13 . The method of claim 11 , wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics comprises identifying a set of entity-specific risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm.
14 . The method of claim 11 , wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity includes applying a risk-based taxonomy.
15 . A computer based system comprising:
a processor adapted to execute code;
a memory for storing executable code;
an ERP generating set of code when executed by the processor adapted to generate a current entity-specific risk profile;
a risk difference set of code when executed by the processor adapted to determine a risk difference between a historical risk profile and the current entity-specific risk profile;
a predictive set of code when executed by the processor adapted to predict a movement of a price of a security associated with an entity based upon the risk difference, the entity being the entity for which the current entity-specific risk profile was generated; and
an output adapted to electronically transmit a signal related to the predicted movement.
16 . The system of claim 15 wherein the movement is either up or down and the security is a share of stock in the entity.
17 . The system of claim 15 wherein the risk difference set of code further comprises code adapted to determine a second risk difference, the second risk difference being between a historical entity-specific risk profile and a second historical risk profile; and wherein the predictive set of code further comprises code adapted to predict a second movement of the price of the security associated with the entity based upon a historical entity-specific risk profile price and a second historical risk profile price, the historical entity-specific risk profile price being the price of the security at a time associated with the historical entity-specific risk profile and the second historical risk profile price being the price of the security at a different time associated with the second historical risk profile.
18 . The system of claim 17 wherein the movement is also associated with an absolute value.
19 . The system of claim 18 wherein the absolute value is based upon the second movement.
20 . The system of claim 15 further comprising an alert set of code when executed by the processor adapted to:
a. determine from a database a set of users interested in the entity; and
b. generate a message comprising the movement, the message being addressed to the set of users.
21 . The system of claim 15 wherein the historical risk profile is related to the entity.
22 . The system of claim 15 wherein the historical risk profile is related to an industry of the entity.
23 . The system of claim 15 wherein the current entity-specific risk profile comprises:
a. an operational risk indicator;
b. a legal risk indicator;
c. a markets risk indicator;
d. a financial risk indicator;
e. a set of idiosyncratic risk information; and
f. a set of trend information.
24 . The system of claim 23 wherein the set of trend information comprises a set of self-trend information and a set of peer trend information.
25 . The system of claim 15 wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to:
a. automatically analyze a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity;
b. automatically generate the current entity-specific risk profile (“ERP”) associated with the entity, the current entity-specific risk profile comprising a first risk component and a second risk component; and
c. store the current entity-specific risk profile in the memory.
26 . The system of claim 25 , wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to identify a set of entity-specific risks based at least in part on a set of risk-indicating patterns associated with a corpus of documents.
27 . The system of claim 25 , wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to identify a set of entity-specific risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm.
28 . The system of claim 25 , wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to apply a risk-based taxonomy.