Confidence based network management
View Patent ↗A method, apparatus, and machine readable storage medium is disclosed for managing a communication network wherein statistics are collected and next expected values for the statistics are calculated based on batch mean and confidence interval calculations and an alarm is raised if the next expected value exceeds a threshold.
1. A method performed by a network management system of managing a network, said method comprising the steps of:
collecting a statistic;
calculating a batch mean for changes in said statistic;
calculating a confidence interval for said statistic;
calculating a next expected value for said statistic; and
raising an alarm if said next expected value exceeds a predefined threshold.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein said statistic comprises a network statistic.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein said statistic is selected from the set of: number of connected user equipments (UEs) on a network element; number of failed UE attach requests; number of home subscribers on a mobile network; number of visiting subscribers on a mobile network; number of UE paging failures; network element peak CPU usage; network element average CPU usage; network element memory usage; number of times a link is down; number of links failing; number of ports down; total number of bytes sent to a port; total number of bytes received by a port; total number of bytes sent to a card; total number of bytes received by a card; maximum data rate across a link; and average data rate across a link.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein said confidence interval is calculated by performing a look-up from a Student's t-distribution 2 chart for an operator-defined confidence level.
5. A network management system comprising:
an interface for communicating with network nodes;
memory adapted to store statistics; and
a processor operable to:
collect a statistic;
calculate a batch mean for changes in said statistic;
calculate a confidence interval for said statistic;
calculate a next expected value for said statistic; and
raise an alarm if said next expected value exceeds a predefined threshold.
6. The network management system of claim 5 wherein said statistic comprises a network statistic.
7. The network management system of claim 5 wherein said confidence interval is calculated by performing a look-up from a Student's t-distribution 2 chart for an operator-defined confidence level.
8. A tangible and non-transitory machine-readable storage medium encoded with instructions for execution by a network management system, the tangible and non-transitory machine-readable storage medium comprising:
instructions for receiving collecting a statistic;
instructions for calculating a batch mean for changes in said statistic;
instructions for calculating a confidence interval for said statistic;
instructions for calculating a next expected value for said statistic; and
instructions for raising an alarm if said next expected value exceeds a predefined threshold.
9. The tangible and non-transitory machine-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein said statistic comprises a network statistic.
10. The tangible and non-transitory machine-readable storage medium of claim 8 , wherein said confidence interval is calculated by performing a look-up from a Student's t-distribution 2 chart for an operator-defined confidence level.