PREDICTING FINANCIAL OUTCOME
The embodiments provide a system for predicting financial outcome of an order. The system includes a discriminant model training module configured to receive historical orders from a data source and to generate discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders, a discriminant model engine configured to receive at least one order to be analyzed and to calculate a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters, and a strategy comparison module configured to calculate an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes to evaluate a risk associated with the at least one order.
1 . A system for predicting financial outcome of an order, the system comprising:
at least one processor;
a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium including instructions executable by the at least one processor, the instructions configured to implement,
a discriminant model training module configured to receive historical orders from a data source, and generate discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders;
a discriminant model engine configured to receive at least one order to be analyzed, and calculate a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters; and
a strategy comparison module configured to calculate an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes to evaluate a risk associated with the at least one order.
2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the discriminant model training module configured to generate discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders includes:
computing new discriminant model parameters during each iteration based on discriminant model parameters of a previous iteration and a change to the discriminant model parameters from the previous iteration.
3 . The system of claim 2 , wherein,
the discriminant model training module is configured to calculate the change to the discriminant model parameters from the previous iteration includes calculating a negative log likelihood based on, in part, the historical orders, and calculating the change to the discriminant model parameters based on, in part, a function of a gradient of the negative log likelihood,
the discriminant model training module is configured to output the new discriminant model parameters to the discriminant model engine when a current iteration exceeds a maximum iteration or a change in the negative log likelihood from the previous iteration is less than a threshold value.
4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the discriminant model engine configured to calculate a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters includes:
calculating a probability that the order to be analyzed belongs to each of the plurality of outcomes based on a function corresponding to each outcome supplied with the discriminant model parameters and a feature vector representing one or more attributes of the at least one order to be analyzed.
5 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the strategy comparison module configured to calculate an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes includes:
calculating an expected business value for each outcome based on a projected business value and the probability associated with a respective outcome; and
calculating the expected business value for the at least one strategy based on the calculated expected business value for each outcome.
6 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the expected business value includes an expected revenue.
7 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the strategy comparison module is configured to provide the expected business value in conjunction with the at least one strategy for display.
8 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the strategy comparison module is configured to provide, with respect to each outcome for the at least one strategy, a respective projected business value, a respective probability, and a respective expected business value for display, the respective expected business value being provided based on the respective projected business value and the respective probability.
9 . The system of claim 1 , wherein each historical order includes a first feature vector representing one or more attributes or features of the historical order, and an outcome vector representing a final outcome of a respective historical order, and the at least one order to be analyzed includes a second feature vector representing one or more attributes or features of the at least one order to be analyzed.
10 . The system of claim 9 , wherein the first feature vector and the second feature vector include customer-related features including financial status and contribution of revenue, and order attributes including amount and type of products for a respective order.
11 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the at least one strategy includes acceptance of the order and rejection of the order.
12 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the plurality of outcomes includes on-time payment, overdue payment, and default payment.
13 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the at least one order to be analyzed includes a product order for at least one product for which a purchase amount of the at least one product exceeds a credit limit associated with a customer.
14 . A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing instructions that when executed cause one or more processors to predict financial outcome of an order, the instructions comprising instructions to:
receive historical orders from a data source;
generate discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders;
receive at least one order to be analyzed;
calculate a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters; and
calculate an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes to evaluate a risk associated with the at least one order.
15 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14 , wherein the instructions to generate discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders includes instructions to:
compute new discriminant model parameters during each iteration based on discriminant model parameters of a previous iteration and a change to the discriminant model parameters from the previous iteration.
16 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 15 , wherein the instructions include instructions to:
calculate the change to the discriminant model parameters from the previous iteration including calculating a negative log likelihood based on, in part, the historical orders, and calculating the change to the discriminant model parameters based on, in part, a function of a gradient of the negative log likelihood; and
output the new discriminant model parameters when a current iteration exceeds a maximum iteration or a change in the negative log likelihood from the previous iteration is less than a threshold value.
17 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14 , wherein the instructions to calculate a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters includes instructions to:
calculate a probability that the order to be analyzed belongs to each of the plurality of outcomes based on a function corresponding to each outcome supplied with the discriminant model parameters and a feature vector representing one or more attributes of the at least one order to be analyzed.
18 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14 , wherein the instructions to calculate an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes to evaluate a risk associated with the at least one orders includes instructions to:
calculate an expected business value for each outcome based on a projected business value and the probability associated with a respective outcome; and
calculate the expected business value for the at least one strategy based on the calculated expected business value for each outcome.
19 . The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 14 , wherein the expected business value includes an expected revenue.
20 . A method for predicting financial outcome of an order performed by at least one processor, the method comprising:
receiving, including the at least one processor, historical orders from a data source;
generating, including the at least one processor, discriminant model parameters based on the historical orders;
receiving, including the at least one processor, at least one order to be analyzed;
calculating, including the at least one processor, a probability for each of a plurality of outcomes for the at least one order to be analyzed based on the discriminant model parameters; and
calculating, including the at least one processor, an expected business value for at least one strategy based on, in part, the probabilities for the plurality of outcomes to evaluate a risk associated with the at least one order.