Adoption simulation with evidential reasoning using agent models in a hierarchical structure

1. An agent-based evidential reasoning decision computer system for determining an adoption rate of a trend, the system comprising a processor and a computer-readable storage device having encoded thereon computer-executable instructions that are executable by the processor to perform functions, the system further comprising:

a plurality of nodes arranged in a tree structure, a topology of the tree structure determined by a subject matter expert in an area of the decision, the topology defining a hierarchy of the tree structure and an interconnection of the nodes, the plurality of nodes defining an evidential reasoning algorithm where lower level nodes receive factors to be considered in the decision, each node assigns a likelihood of an outcome of the received factors, and generates an output to a subsequent higher level node or root of the tree structure;

a plurality of agent models organized in a hierarchical structure, each agent model comprising a respective set of the plurality of nodes and an output of the agent model, each agent model representing at least one of a member of a population and a subset of the population; and

an aggregator algorithm configured to combine the outputs of the plurality of agent models to generate an output representing an adoption rate.

2. The computer system of claim 1 , wherein said aggregator algorithm comprises a Bass diffusion model.

3. The computer system of claim 2 , wherein the elements of the Bass diffusion model include at least one of financial payback, age of existing vehicle, commute distance of user, availability of charger infrastructure, and manufacturing supply constraints.

4. The computer system of claim 1 , wherein the evidential reasoning algorithm is used to assign a belief in the decision at each node where additional factors are considered, the belief represented by a certainty factor that ranges from absolute belief to absolute disbelief.