IP Library › Granted Patent US 10,360,580

Granted Patent B1

US 10,360,580 · App. 13/839,036 · Granted Jul 23, 2019

Promotion system for determining and correcting for insufficiency of promotion data

Inventors: Kevin Chang (Mountain View, CA); Amit Aggarwal (Sunnyvale, CA)

Assignee: GROUPON, INC.

G06Q30/0242

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Quick Facts

Patent No.: US 10,360,580
App. No.: 13/839,036
Granted: Jul 23, 2019
Kind: B1

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Abstract

A promotion system for determining a deficiency in promotion data and correcting for the deficiency is disclosed. Issuing offers from a promotion program results in promotion data being generated. The promotion data may be analyzed to determine an acceptance rate of the offers. The promotion system may compare whether the acceptance rate is above a predetermined threshold, but has a confidence level that is less than a confidence rate threshold. In that event, the promotion system may issue additional offers in order to increase the confidence level associated with the acceptance rate by a predetermined amount.

Claims (88)

1. A method for determining a need for and a number of additional offers to make, based on a determination that, at a present time, an insufficient amount of feedback data is available, for a promotion from a promotion program, the method comprising:

analyzing, via a processor, feedback data from previous offers sent to consumers for the promotion program, the promotion program limited to a geographic area,

wherein each previous offer is comprised of at least a first attribute having a plurality of attribute values including at least a first attribute value and a second attribute having a second attribute value, wherein the first attribute is distance of the consumer to the promotion,

wherein the feedback data comprises data indicative of one of (i) ignoring the promotion offer, (ii) opening the promotion offer and not buying the promotion included therein, or (iii) buying the promotion;

determining, based on the analysis, a first estimated acceptance of offers correlated to one of the plurality of attribute values, a second estimated acceptance of offers correlated to the second attribute, and a third estimated acceptance of offers correlated to a combination of the first attribute and the second attribute;

determining that each of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, or the third estimated acceptance is above a predetermined acceptance threshold;

subsequent to the determination that each of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance is above the predetermined acceptance threshold, determining, via the processor, that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance fails to meet a predetermined conversion rate threshold, wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a minimum conversion rate, the minimum conversion rate varies depending on the one of the plurality of attribute values, the plurality of attribute values being a distance of the consumer to the promotion, wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a conversion rate that is a predetermined percentile of conversion rates for the one of the plurality of values for promotion programs in the geographic area;

in an instance in which the first estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determining a number of additional offers correlated to the first attribute needed to be sent to make the first estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold;

in an instance in which the second estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determining a number of additional offers correlated to the second attribute needed to be sent to make the second estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold;

in an instance in which the third estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determining a number of additional offers correlated to the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to be sent to make the third estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold;

providing, via electronic communication, the electronic communication comprising a text message or mobile push notification, in real-time, a portion of the number of additional offers during a first time period,

wherein Y′, which is a total number of additional offers needed such that an empirical conversion rate is within a predetermined percentage of an actual conversion rate, =c_alpha 2 /(0.2 2 )/the empirical conversion rate, wherein c_alpha is a constant depending on alpha and alpha is a predetermined probability that the empirical conversion rate is within a predefined percentage of an actual conversion rate, and

wherein the number of additional offers is equal to Y′ minus the number of offers already provided;

receiving additional feedback data associated with the portion of number of additional offers;

re-calculating the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance;

re-determining that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance fails to meet a predetermined conversion rate threshold;

re-calculating the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to be sent to make the first, second, or third estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold; and

providing, via one or more additional electronic communications, over a course of one or more periods of time, the re-calculated number of additional offers.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein determining the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute comprises determining the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute in order to increase at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance by at least a predetermined amount.

3. The method of claim 2 , wherein the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute is selected so that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance is within a predetermined percentage of an actual acceptance.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a predetermined number.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to increase at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold is dependent on a value of the at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the first attribute includes a plurality of attribute values;

wherein the previous offers correlated to the first attribute comprise the previous offers that exhibit one of the plurality of attribute values;

wherein the first estimated acceptance correlated to the first attribute comprises the first estimated acceptance for the one of the plurality of attribute values; and

wherein the number of additional offers correlated to the first attribute needed to increase the first estimated acceptance is based on a number of the previous offers that exhibit the one of the plurality of attribute values.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the first attribute includes a plurality of attribute values;

wherein determining the first estimated acceptance of the previous offers correlated to the first attribute comprises determining, for each of the plurality of attribute values, a corresponding estimated acceptance;

wherein determining a number of additional offers comprises determining, for each of the plurality of attribute values, a corresponding number of additional offers to make; and

further comprising:

ranking some or all of the plurality of attribute values based on an effect of increase in the corresponding estimated acceptance by issuing the corresponding number of additional offers; and

selecting, based on the ranking, one or more of the plurality of attribute values in order to send some or all of the number of additional offers that exhibit the selected one or more of the plurality of attribute values.

8. The method of claim 7 , wherein, for a respective attribute value, the effect of increase the corresponding estimated acceptance by issuing the corresponding number of additional offers is dependent on a gap in the corresponding estimated acceptance and the first estimated acceptance and a number of consumers that exhibit the respective attribute value.

9. A system for determining a need for and a number of additional offers to make, based on a determination that, at a present time, an insufficient amount of feedback data is available, for a promotion from a promotion program, the system comprising:

one or more memories configured to store a consumer attribute and a promotion attribute; and

a processor in communication with the one or more memories, the processor configured to:

analyze, via the processor, feedback from previous offers sent to consumers for the promotion program, the promotion program limited to a geographic area,

determine, based on the analysis, a first estimated acceptance of offers correlated to one of the plurality of attribute values, a second estimated acceptance of offers correlated to the second attribute, and a third estimated acceptance of offers correlated to a combination of the first attribute and the second attribute;

determine that each of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, or the third estimated acceptance is above a predetermined acceptance threshold;

subsequent to the determination that each of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance is above the predetermined acceptance threshold, determine, via the processor, that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance fails to meet a predetermined conversion rate threshold, wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a minimum conversion rate, the minimum conversion rate varies depending on the one of the plurality of attribute values, the plurality of attribute values being a distance of the consumer to the promotion, wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a conversion rate that is a predetermined percentile of conversion rates for the one of the plurality of values for promotion programs in the geographic area;

in an instance in which the first estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determine a number of additional offers correlated to the first attribute needed to be sent to make the first estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold;

in an instance in which the second estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determine a number of additional offers correlated to the second attribute needed to be sent to make the second estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold;

in an instance in which the third estimated acceptance fails to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold, determine a number of additional offers correlated to the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to be sent to make the third estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold; and

provide, via electronic communication, the electronic communication comprising a text message or mobile push notification, in real-time, a portion of the number of additional offers during a first time period,

wherein the number of additional offers is equal to Y′ minus the number of offers already provided;

receive additional feedback data associated with the portion of number of additional offers;

re-calculate the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance;

re-determine that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance fails to meet a predetermined conversion rate threshold;

re-calculate the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to be sent to make the first, second, or third estimated acceptance increase to meet the predetermined conversion rate threshold; and

provide, via one or more additional electronic communications, over a course of one or more periods of time, the re-calculated number of additional offers.

10. The system of claim 9 , wherein the processor is configured to determine the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute by determining the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute in order to increase one of at least the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance by at least a predetermined amount.

11. The system of claim 10 , wherein the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute is selected so that at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance is within a predetermined percentage of an actual acceptance.

12. The system of claim 9 , wherein the predetermined conversion rate threshold comprises a predetermined number.

13. The system of claim 9 , wherein the number of additional offers correlated to at least one of the first attribute, the second attribute or the combination of the first attribute and the second attribute needed to increase the at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance is dependent on a value of the at least one of the first estimated acceptance, the second estimated acceptance, and the third estimated acceptance.

14. The system of claim 9 , wherein the first attribute includes a plurality of attribute values;

wherein the previous offers correlated to the first attribute comprise the previous offers that exhibit one of the plurality of attribute values;

wherein the first estimated acceptance correlated to the first attribute comprises the first estimated acceptance for the one of the plurality of attribute values; and

15. The system of claim 9 , wherein the first attribute includes a plurality of attribute values;

wherein the processor is configured to determine the first estimated acceptance of the previous offers correlated to the first attribute by determining, for each of the plurality of attribute values, a corresponding estimated acceptance;

wherein the processor is configured to determine a number of additional offers by determining, for each of the plurality of attribute values, a corresponding number of additional offers to make; and

wherein the processor is further configured to:

rank some or all of the plurality of attribute values based on an effect of an increase in the corresponding estimated acceptance by issuing the corresponding number of additional offers; and

select, based on the ranking, one or more of the plurality of attribute values in order to send some or all of the number of additional offers that exhibit the selected one or more of the plurality of attribute values.

16. The system of claim 15 , wherein, for a respective attribute value, the effect of increase in the corresponding estimated acceptance by issuing the corresponding number of additional offers is dependent on a gap in the corresponding estimated acceptance and the first estimated acceptance and a number of consumers that exhibit the respective attribute value.

17. A computer program product, stored on a non-transitory computer readable medium, comprising instructions that when executed on one or more computers cause the one or more computers to perform operations implementing determining whether and how many additional offers to make, based on a determination that, at a present time, an insufficient amount of feedback data is available, for a promotion from a promotion program, the operations comprising: