SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PERFORMANCE METRICS OF CONSERVATION VOLTAGE REDUCTION (CVR) SYSTEMS AND VOLT/VAR OPTIMIZATION SYSTEMS
A system and method for estimating performance metrics of conservation voltage reduction (CVR) systems and VOLT/VAR optimization systems is disclosed.
1 . A method of analyzing the performance of a conservation system for improving the performance of an electrical power delivery system, the method comprising:
receiving first observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a first mode;
receiving second observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a second mode;
generating a first model of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first observation information;
generating a second model of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second observation information;
determining first controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first model; and
determining second controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second model.
2 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the conservation system comprises a conservation voltage reduction (CVR) system or a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) system.
3 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
controlling the conservation system to operate in the first and second modes,
wherein the first mode is a mode where the conservation system is inactive and the second mode is a mode where the conservation system is active.
4 . The method of claim 1 , wherein each of the first and second observation information comprises:
explanatory information indicative of at least one explanatory variable for the performance of the conservation system, the explanatory information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, population, weather conditions, and linear or non-linear combinations of any of the foregoing; and
dependent information indicative of at least one dependent variable for the performance of the conservation system, the dependent information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: operating voltage, real power demand, VAR demand, or combinations thereof.
5 . The method of claim 4 , wherein generating each of the first and second models comprises:
performing a regression based on the respective explanatory information and the dependent information, the performing the regression comprising performing at least one selected from the list consisting of: a multiple linear regression, a robust regression algorithm, and a minimum covariance determinant regression algorithm.
6 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
sorting each of the first and second observation information into a plurality of categories; and
wherein:
generating the first model of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode comprises performing separate respective regressions based on the first observation information from each of the plurality of categories; and
generating the second model of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode comprises performing separate respective regressions based on the second observation information from each of the plurality of categories.
7 . The method of claim 6 , wherein the observation information within each of the categories exhibits substantially linear behavior.
8 . The method of claim 7 , wherein the observation information exhibits substantially non-linear behavior from category to category.
9 . The method of claim 8 , wherein each of the plurality of categories correspond to observations of a common physical condition, the common physical condition including at least one selected from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, and weather conditions.
10 . The method of claim 8 , wherein each of the plurality of categories corresponds to observations of a common usage condition, the common usage condition corresponding to a user population or a user population density.
11 . The method of claim 6 , wherein the plurality of categories comprises:
a low temperature category comprising observations corresponding to a zone with relatively low ambient temperatures;
a high temperature category corresponding to a zone with relatively high ambient temperatures; and
a moderate category corresponding to a zone with ambient temperatures intermediate between the low and high temperature zones.
12 . The method of claim 11 , wherein the low temperature category corresponds to a zone where power from the delivery system is used for heating, and the high temperature category corresponds to a zone where power from the delivery system is used for cooling.
13 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
comparing the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes using the first and second controlled performance information.
14 . The method of claim 13 , wherein comparing the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes comprises using the first and second models to control for differing delivery system operating conditions in the first and second modes, the differing delivery system operating conditions comprising at least one from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, population, weather conditions, and linear or non-linear combinations of any of the foregoing.
15 . The method of claim 13 , wherein the conservation system is a CVR system and comparing the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes comprises generating information indicative of a CVR factor.
16 . The method of claim 13 , wherein the conservation system is a Volt/VAR optimization system and comparing the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes comprises generating information indicative of energy efficiency or demand response.
17 . A system for analyzing the performance of a conservation system for improving the performance of an electrical power delivery system, the system comprising:
a processor configured to:
receive first observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a first mode;
receive second observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a second mode;
generate a first model of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first observation information;
generate a second model of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second observation information;
determine first controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first model; and
determine second controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second model.
18 . The system of claim 17 , wherein the conservation system comprises a conservation voltage reduction (CVR) system or a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) system.
19 . The system of claim 17 , further comprising:
a controller configured to control the conservation system to operate in the first and second modes,
wherein the first mode is a mode where the conservation system is inactive and the second mode is a mode where the conservation system is active.
20 . The system of claim 17 , wherein each of the first and second observation information comprises:
explanatory information indicative of at least one explanatory variable for the performance of the conservation system, the explanatory information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, population, weather conditions, and linear or non-linear combinations of any of the foregoing; and
dependent information indicative of at least one dependent variable for the performance of the conservation system, the dependent information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: operating voltage, real voltage demand, VAR demand, or combinations thereof.
21 . The system of claim 17 , further comprising:
a plurality of sensors operatively coupled to the processor and configured to generate the observation information, the plurality of sensors including one or meters located remotely from the processor and in operative communication with the processor.
22 . The system of claim 21 , wherein the plurality of sensors comprises one or more sensors configured to observe physical conditions at one or more locations in the delivery system, the sensors comprising at least one selected from the list consisting of: a temperature sensor, a humidity sensor, a solar condition sensor, an exposure sensor, a population sensor, a weather condition sensor, and combinations of any of the foregoing.
23 . The system of claim 17 , wherein the processor is further configured to:
compare the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes using the first and second controlled performance information.
24 . The system of claim 23 , wherein the processor is configured to compare the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes using the first and second models to control for differing delivery system operating conditions in the first and second modes, the differing delivery system operating conditions comprising at least one from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, population, weather conditions, and linear or non-linear combinations of any of the foregoing.
25 . The system of claim 17 , further comprising a controller operatively connected to the processor, the controller configured to control the operation of the conservation system.
26 . A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium comprising processor executable instruction, the instructions comprising instructions to:
receive first observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a first mode;
receive second observation information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in a second mode;
generate a first model of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first observation information;
generate a second model of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second observation information;
determine first controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the first mode based on the first model; and
determine second controlled performance information indicative of the performance of the conservation system in the second mode based on the second model.
27 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 26 , wherein the instructions comprise instructions to:
control the conservation system to operate in the first and second modes,
wherein the first mode is a mode where the conservation system is inactive and the second mode is a mode where the conservation system is active.
28 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 27 , wherein each of the first and second observation information comprises:
explanatory information indicative of at least one explanatory variable for the performance of the conservation system, the explanatory information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: temperature, humidity, solar conditions, exposure, population, weather conditions, and linear or non-linear combinations of any of the foregoing; and
dependent information indicative of at least one dependent variable for the performance of the conservation system, the dependent information comprising information indicative of at least one selected from the list consisting of: operating voltage, real voltage demand, VAR demand, or combinations thereof.
29 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 28 , wherein the instructions to generate each of the first and second models further comprise instructions to:
perform a regression based on the respective explanatory information and the dependent information, the performing the regression comprising performing at least one selected from the list consisting of: a multiple linear regression, a robust regression algorithm, and a minimum covariance determinant algorithm.
30 . The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 26 , wherein the instructions further comprise instructions to:
compare the performance of the conservation system in the first and second modes using the first and second controlled performance information.