Trailblazer methods, apparatuses and media
View Patent ↗At a first time, an indication of a selection of a contract, expiring at a second time and associated with a commodity, is received. A set of physical stacks associated with the contract is accessed. Based upon the first time, the second time, and a periodic sampling rate, a marginal cost profile for the commodity is generated. The marginal cost profile is a set of values relating to an estimate of a marginal cost of production for the commodity at a set of times between the first time and the second time. A display signal, adapted to form the basis for a visual display, is generated. The display signal includes a first component relating to at least one physical stack from the set of physical stacks, and a second component relating to the marginal cost profile. The display signal is stored in a memory and transmitted from the memory.
1. A method for providing a real-time interactive visualization of futures contract data, the method comprising:
storing, in a real-time database, updated futures contract data related to a plurality of futures contracts relating to a commodity, the futures contract data including commodity prices data, contract prices data, supplier data, supply data, demand data, contract timing data, current market data and event data;
operating a model server coupled to the real-time database to determine a predicted fair value for the plurality of futures contracts based on the data related to the futures contracts as updated in real-time;
receiving from a client via a web API a request for a graphical user interface for accessing said predicted fair value for said plurality of futures contracts;
in response to said request, executing, by a web server coupled to the database and to the model server, a web based application operative to generate said graphical user interface for said client accessing the application via a web browser provided by a user interface component, the graphical user interface providing interface elements allowing the client to select a particular futures contract and to select at least two of a plurality of distinct views of data related to the selected futures contract, the plurality of distinct views including:
an events view including events that caused a change in the predicted fair value for the selected future contract;
a timeline view including a graph of at least one of the predicted fair value of the selected contract and a market price of the selected contract over a time period associated with the selected contract;
a marginal cost view including a predicted cost of supply curve for the time period associated with the selected contract; and
a market cross view including a representation of output capacity of a plurality of supply sources, wherein the user interface component causes the user interface to display additional information pertaining to the output capacity of a particular supply source responsive to a user selection of the particular supply source and to display in a pop up window, an identity of the particular supply source and at least one of a production capacity of the particular supply source, and a cost associated with the particular supply source;
receiving from a user a selection of a particular futures contract and a selection of at least two distinct views of data from the plurality of distinct views of futures contract data related to the particular futures contract;
accessing the real-time database and model server to retrieve futures contract data related to the selected particular futures contract to generate the selected at least two distinct views of data from the plurality of distinct views; and
rendering the selected at least two distinct views of data from the plurality of distinct views simultaneously in the user interface, the at least two distinct views including the market cross view and at least one of the events view and the timeline view, and further wherein the user interface is arranged such that the user can select an event of interest in the one of the events view and the timeline view to show updated futures contract data in another of the at least two distinct views of data such that an analysis of an effect of an event on futures contract data is substantially facilitated.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the commodity is electrical power.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the supply data includes a list of suppliers associated with the futures contract and at least one of (i) fuel type, (ii) cost based on fuel price or weather (iii) geographic location, (iv) installed capacity and (v) outages.
4. The method of claim 3 , wherein the list of suppliers is aggregated into a predetermined number of groups.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the demand data includes at least one of (i) commodity demand information for the market and (ii) commodity demand information, for different price areas within the market.
6. The method of claim 1 , wherein the contract timing data is specified in a data store.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the predicted fair value is calculated based on an intersection point of a supply curve and a demand curve, wherein the supply curve is formed based on data regarding available capacity and cost, and further wherein the demand curve is formed based on estimated demand at a future time.
8. The method of claim 1 , further comprising determining an uncertainty band for the predicted fair value of the futures contract and displaying the uncertainty band with at least one of said distinct views.
9. The method of claim 8 , further comprising determining an upper bound and a lower bound of the uncertainty band.
10. The method of claim 1 , wherein the supply data includes an indication of available capacity of the commodity from a supply source and the indication is expressed in at least one of said distinct views as a graphic having a width, wherein the width of the graphic corresponds to the indication of available capacity.
11. The method of claim 10 , wherein the graphic has a height, and further wherein the height of the graphic corresponds to the cost of the commodity.
12. The method of claim 1 , wherein at least one of said distinct views includes information relating to the plurality of supply sources.
13. The method of claim 1 , wherein the supply data includes an indication of available capacity of the commodity from the plurality of supply sources and the indication is expressed in at least one of said distinct views as a graphic having a width, wherein the available capacity from each supply source is expressed as a slice of the graphic, wherein the width of the slice corresponds to the indication of available capacity.
14. The method of claim 1 , wherein the supply data includes an indication of cost of the commodity from the plurality of supply sources and the indication is expressed in at least one of said distinct views as a graphic having a height, wherein the cost from each supply source is expressed as a slice of the graphic, wherein the height of the slice corresponds to the cost of the commodity from the supply source.
15. A system for providing a real-time interactive visualization of futures contract data, the system comprising:
a real-time database including updated futures contract data related to a plurality of futures contracts relating to a commodity, the futures contract data including commodity prices data, contract prices data, supplier data, supply data, demand data, contract timing data, current market data and event data;
a model server coupled to the real-time database operative to determine a predicted fair value for the plurality of futures contracts based on based on the data related to the futures contracts as updated in real-time;
a web server coupled to the database and to the model server, the web server executing a web-based application operative to:
receive from a client via a web API a request for a graphical user interface for accessing said predicted fair value for said plurality of futures contracts;
in response to said request, generate said graphical user interface for said client accessing the application via a web browser provided by a user interface component, the graphical user interface providing interface elements allowing the client to select a particular futures contract and to select at least two of a plurality of distinct views of data related to the selected futures contract, the plurality of distinct views including:
an events view including events that caused a change in the predicted fair value for the selected future contract;
a timeline view including a graph of at least one of the predicted fair value of the selected contract and a market price of the selected contract over a time period associated with the selected contract;
a marginal cost view including a predicted cost of supply curve for the time period associated with the selected contract; and
a market cross view including a representation of output capacity of a plurality of supply sources, wherein the user interface component causes the user interface to display additional information pertaining to the output capacity of a particular supply source responsive to a user selection of the particular supply source and to display in a pop up window, an identity of the particular supply source and at least one of a production capacity of the particular supply source, and a cost associated with the particular supply source;
receive from a user a selection of a particular futures contract and a selection of at least two distinct views of data from the plurality of distinct views of futures contract data related to the particular futures contract;
access the real-time database and model server to retrieve futures contract data related to the selected particular futures contract required to generate the selected at least two distinct views from the plurality of distinct views; and
render the selected at least two distinct views of data from the plurality of distinct views simultaneously in the user interface, the at least two distinct views including the market cross view and at least one of the events view and the timeline view, and wherein the user interface is arranged such that the user can select an event of interest in the one of the events view and the timeline view to show updated futures contract data in another of the at least two distinct views of data such that an analysis of an effect of an event on futures contract data is substantially facilitated.
16. The system of claim 15 , wherein the timeline view includes a graphical comparison of the predicted fair value of the contract and the market price of the selected contract.
17. The system of claim 15 , wherein the market cross view includes a depiction of a supply stack representing alternative sources of supply during a selected time interval.
18. The system of claim 15 , wherein the graphical user interface initially presents to the client a contract overview view that shows a list of contracts that may be analyzed by the client.
19. The system of claim 15 , wherein the user interface renders at least the events view and the timeline view simultaneously.
20. The system of claim 15 , wherein the user interface is operative to respond to selection of an event in the events view to show a corresponding marker in the timeline view.
21. The system of claim 15 , wherein the user interface further renders uncertainty bands for values shown in the plurality of views.
22. The system of claim 15 , wherein the user interface is configured and adapted to render at least the events view and the marginal cost view simultaneously.
23. The system of claim 15 , wherein the user interface is operative to respond to selection of an event in the events view to show a curve of marginal cost for a period associated with the selected contract that takes into account an effect of the event.