Method and system for path predictive congestion avoidance

1. A method for a wireless communications network, the method comprising:

receiving activity data for a plurality of cells;

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition,

wherein the activity data includes handover information for the plurality of cells.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the handover information includes identities of cells from which user equipment was handed-in to a target cell of the plurality of cells, the identities of one or more cells to which user equipment was handed-out from the target cell, a quantity of hand-in events to the target cell within a time period, and a quantity of hand-out events from the target cell within the time period.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the handover information is recorded in a transit event record that further includes identities of user equipment associated with the hand-in and hand-out events, transit times for the user equipment, and transitions between idle and active states for the user equipment.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the handover information includes times at which user equipment were handed into and out of a target cell of the plurality of cells within a time period.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein determining dominant paths includes:

determining a cell to which a majority of user equipment occupying a target cell are handed-out within a time period; and

designating a path from the target cell to the cell to which the majority of user equipment were handed-out as the dominant path.

6. The method of claim 5 , wherein determining dominant paths further includes:

determining a cell from which a majority of user equipment occupying a target cell are handed-in within a time period; and

designating a path from the cell to which the majority of user equipment were handed-in to the target cell as the dominant path.

7. The method of claim 5 , wherein determining dominant paths includes determining a first order path from the target cell and determining a second order path from the target cell, and

wherein the first order path is a path to a cell which received the largest number of handouts from the target cell within the time period, and the second order path is a path to a cell which received the second largest number of handouts from the target cell within the time period.

8. The method of claim 5 , wherein determining dominant paths further comprises:

correlating a plurality of transit events across the target cell with identities of user equipment which performed the transit events.

9. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:

determining a transit latency value for the target cell based on the correlated plurality of transit events.

10. The method of claim 1 , wherein predicting the future network conditions comprises:

simulating movement of user equipment along the dominant paths using average transit times.

11. The method of claim 10 , wherein the simulated movement is based on current locations of user equipment in the network.

12. The method of claim 1 , wherein allocating network resources includes handing over user equipment from cells of the plurality of cells that are predicted to be overloaded.

13. The method of claim 1 , wherein allocating network resources includes reserving resources for the plurality of cells to account for the predicted future network conditions.

14. The method of claim 1 , wherein the dominant paths include linked lists of neighbor cells sharing dominant path designators.

15. A communications system comprising:

a processor;

a receiver that receives activity data including handover information for a plurality of cells;

a memory that stores the activity data for the plurality of cells; and

at least one non-transitory computer readable medium with executable instructions stored thereon which, when executed by the processor, perform the following operations:

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition.

16. The communications system of claim 15 ,

wherein the handover information includes identities of cells from which user equipment was handed-in to a target cell of the plurality of cells, the identities of one or more cells to which user equipment was handed-out from the target cell, a quantity of hand-in events to the target cell within a time period, and a quantity of hand-out events from the target cell within the time period.

17. The communications system of claim 16 , wherein the handover information is recorded in a transit event record that further includes identities of user equipment associated with the hand-in and hand-out events, transit times for the user equipment, and transitions between idle and active states for the user equipment.

18. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein the activity data includes handover information for the plurality of cells, and

wherein the handover information includes times at which user equipment were handed into and out of a target cell of the plurality of cells within a time period.

19. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein dominant paths are determined by:

determining a cell to which a majority of user equipment occupying a target cell are handed-out within a time period; and

designating a path from the target cell to the cell to which the majority of user equipment were handed-out to as the dominant path.

20. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein dominant paths are determined by:

determining a cell from which a majority of user equipment occupying a target cell are handed-in within a time period; and

designating a path from the cell from which the majority of user equipment were handed-in to the target cell as the dominant path.

21. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein determining dominant paths includes determining a first order path from the target cell and determining a second order path from the target cell, and

wherein the first order path is a path to a cell which received the largest number of handouts from the target cell within the time period, and the second order path is a path to a cell which received the second largest number of handouts from the target cell within the time period.

22. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein determining dominant paths further includes correlating a plurality of transit events across the target cell with identities of user equipment which performed the transit events, and

wherein a transit latency value for the target cell is determined based on the correlated plurality of transit events.

23. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein predicting the future network conditions includes simulating movement of user equipment along the dominant paths using average transit times.

24. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein allocating network resources includes handing over user equipment from cells of the plurality of cells that are predicted to be overloaded.

25. The communications system of claim 15 , wherein allocating network resources includes reserving resources for the plurality of cells to account for the predicted future network conditions.

26. A non-transitory computer readable medium with computer executable instructions stored thereon that, when executed by a processor, perform the following method:

receiving activity data for a plurality of cells;

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition,

wherein the activity data includes handover information for the plurality of cells.

27. A method for a wireless communications network, the method comprising:

receiving activity data for a plurality of cells;

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition,

wherein predicting the future network conditions includes simulating movement of user equipment along the dominant paths using average transit times.

28. A method for a wireless communications network, the method comprising:

receiving activity data for a plurality of cells;

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition,

wherein allocating network resources includes handing over user equipment from cells of the plurality of cells that are predicted to be overloaded.

29. A method for a wireless communications network, the method comprising:

receiving activity data for a plurality of cells;

determining dominant paths for each of a plurality of cells based on the activity data;

predicting a future network condition based on the dominant paths; and

allocating network resources based on the predicted future network condition,

wherein allocating network resources includes reserving resources for the plurality of cells to account for the predicted future network conditions.