SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR MEASURING COMPLEX ONLINE STRATEGY EFFECTIVENESS
Systems and methods for are provided for measuring treatment effect of advertisement campaigns. The system includes a processor and a non-transitory storage medium accessible to the processor. The system includes a memory storing a database including historical advertisement data. A computer server is in communication with the memory and the database, the computer server programmed to obtain a tree-based model using the historical advertisement data, where the tree-based model include a plurality of leaf nodes. Within at least one leaf node of the tree-based model, the computer server obtains a number of subjects and estimates a treatment effect for a treatment. The computer server calculates a final treatment effect for the tree-based model using the number of subjects and the treatment effect. The computer server then determines a parameter for future advertising strategy using the final treatment effect.
1 . A system for measuring treatment effect, comprising:
a processor and a non-transitory storage medium accessible to the processor;
a memory storing a database comprising historical advertisement data;
a computer server in communication with the memory and the database, the computer server programmed to:
obtain a tree-based model using the historical advertisement data, the tree-based model comprising a plurality of leaf nodes;
within at least one leaf node of the tree-based model, obtain a number of subjects and estimate a treatment effect for a treatment;
calculate a final treatment effect for the tree-based model using the number of subjects and the treatment effect; and
determine a parameter for future advertising strategy using the final treatment effect.
2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the historical advertisement data comprise: user treatment data, user feature data, and observational data.
3 . The system of claim 2 ,
wherein the user treatment data comprise at least one of: advertisement frequencies, advertisement features, advertisement time slots, and advertisement delivery channels; and
wherein the observational data comprises performance measurements of corresponding treatments.
4 . The system of claim 3 , wherein the user treatment data comprise advertisement frequencies on different platforms and the computer server is programmed to determine best advertisement frequencies on different platforms that generate best performance measurements.
5 . The system of claim 2 , wherein the computer server is programmed to obtain the tree-based model using the historical advertisement data by fitting the tree-based model with a dependent variable related to the user treatment data and an independent variable related to the user feature data.
6 . The system of claim 2 , wherein the user feature data comprise: user demographic data, user interest data, online user activity data, and TV view user activity data.
7 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the computer server is programmed to construct a plurality of bootstrap samples according to an empirical distribution of the historical advertisement data, compute a plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators respectively based on the plurality of bootstrap samples, and obtain a final estimator using the plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators.
8 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the computer server is programmed to calculate the final treatment effect for the tree-based model at least partially using equation:
E
=
∑
s
N
s
N
{
R
s
(
t
)
-
R
s
(
t
0
)
}
,
wherein E is the final treatment effect, s indicates a leaf node of the tree, t indicates a treatment, R s (t) indicates a treatment effect for the treatment t in the leaf node s, and R s (t 0 ) indicates a baseline treatment effect in the leaf node s.
9 . A method, comprising:
obtaining, by one or more devices having a processor, a tree-based model using historical advertisement data, the tree-based model comprising a plurality of leaf nodes;
within at least one leaf node of the tree-based model, obtaining, by the one or more devices, a number of subjects and estimate a treatment effect for a treatment; and
calculating, by the one or more devices, a final treatment effect for the tree-based model using the number of subjects and the treatment effect; and
determining, by the one or more devices, a parameter for future advertising strategy using the final treatment effect.
10 . The method of claim 9 , wherein the historical advertisement data comprise: user treatment data, user feature data, and observational data.
11 . The method of claim 10 ,
wherein the user treatment data comprise at least one of: advertisement frequencies, advertisement features, advertisement time slots, advertisement delivery channels; and
wherein the observational data comprises performance measurements of corresponding treatments.
12 . The method of claim 11 ,
wherein the user treatment data comprise advertisement frequencies on different platforms; and
wherein determining the parameter for future advertising strategy using the final treatment effect comprises determining best advertisement frequencies on different platforms that generate best performance measurements.
13 . The method of claim 10 , further comprising:
obtaining the tree-based model using the historical advertisement data by fitting the tree-based model with a dependent variable related to the user treatment data and an independent variable related to the user feature data; and
updating the tree-based model periodically using new observational data.
14 . The method of claim 10 , wherein the user feature data comprise: user demographic data, user interest data, online user activity data, and TV view user activity data.
15 . The method of claim 9 , further comprising:
constructing a plurality of bootstrap samples according to an empirical distribution of the historical data;
computing a plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators respectively based on the plurality of bootstrap samples; and
obtaining a final estimator using the plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators.
16 . The method of claim 9 , further comprising:
calculating the final treatment effect for the tree-based model at least partially using equation:
E
=
∑
s
N
s
N
{
R
s
(
t
)
-
R
s
(
t
0
)
}
,
wherein E is the final treatment effect, s indicates a leaf node of the tree, t indicates a treatment, R s (t) indicates a treatment effect for the treatment t in the leaf node s, and R s (t 0 ) indicates a baseline treatment effect in the leaf node s.
17 . A non-transitory storage medium configured to store modules comprising:
module for obtaining a tree-based model using advertisement data, the tree-based model comprising a plurality of leaf nodes;
module for obtaining, within at least one leaf node of the tree-based model, a number of subjects and estimating a treatment effect for a treatment;
module for calculating a final treatment effect for the tree-based model using the number of subjects and the treatment effect; and
module for determining a parameter for future advertising strategy using the final treatment effect,
wherein the advertisement data comprise: user treatment data, user feature data, and observational data collected from a plurality of platforms including: Internet platforms and TV networks.
18 . The non-transitory storage medium of claim 17 ,
wherein the user treatment data comprise at least one of: advertisement frequencies, advertisement features, advertisement time slots, advertisement delivery channels; and
wherein the observational data comprises performance measurements of corresponding treatments.
19 . The non-transitory storage medium of claim 17 , wherein the modules further comprise:
module for constructing a plurality of bootstrap samples according to an empirical distribution of the advertisement data;
module for computing a plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators respectively based on the plurality of bootstrap samples; and
module for obtaining a final estimator using the plurality of bootstrapped treatment effect estimators,
wherein the user feature data comprise: user demographic data, user interest data, online user activity data, and TV view user activity data.
20 . The non-transitory storage medium of claim 17 , wherein the modules further comprise: module for calculating the final treatment effect for the tree-based model at least partially using equation:
E
=
∑
s
N
s
N
{
R
s
(
t
)
-
R
s
(
t
0
)
}
,
wherein E is the final treatment effect, s indicates a leaf node of the tree, t indicates a treatment, R s (t) indicates a treatment effect for the treatment t in the leaf node s, and R s (t 0 ) indicates a baseline treatment effect in the leaf node s.