Demand response system having a participation predictor
A demand response management system having a participation predictor. There may be a storage device having information collected about past behavior, related to participation in a demand response program, about a customer. The information may incorporate determining a period of time since the customer last participated in a demand response program, a frequency of participation in demand response events by the customer, and a size of energy loads of the customer. A model of the customer may be developed from this and other information. A processor may be used to collect and process the information, develop a model, and to make a prediction of a customer's being selected to participate in an event based on the various operator selectable criteria.
1. A demand response control system for controlling a load from a utility consumed by a facility of a customer in a demand response program, the system comprising:
a utility and/or independent service operator (ISO), comprising:
a processor; and
a storage mechanism, connected to the processor, for containing data about a customer in a demand response (DR) program; and
wherein:
a model of each customer in a demand response program is developed from data in the storage mechanism, with the processor, wherein the data includes values associated with the customer for a plurality of factors; and
a ranking of each customer is developed relative to other customers for each factor of two or more factors of the plurality of factors;
intersection groups are developed by grouping customers with the same rankings in each factor of the two or more factors; and
a table having rows and columns is developed with the intersection groups either the rows or columns and each factor of the two or more factors in the other of the rows or columns, wherein each cell at a cross-section of an intersection group and a factor is a value indicating a magnitude value of the intersection group for that factor;
one or more intersection groups are selected from the table to meet an objective of a DR event of the DR program and control signals are sent from the utility and/or independent service operator (ISO) to each facility of each customer in the selected one or more intersection groups to affect a load on the utility in response to the DR event and maintain a balance of supply from the utility and demand on the utility
the two or more factors include recency, frequency, and load;
each customer is ranked relative to other customers for each of recency, frequency, and load; and
each customer is categorized into an intersection group according to the customer's ranking for frequency, load, and recency.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein:
values for recency, frequency, and load are determined from the past behavior of the customer in the one or more DR programs.
3. The system of claim 2 , wherein:
recency is a period of time since the customer last participated in a DR program;
frequency is a number of DR events that the customer participated in during a specific amount of time; and
load is a size of an energy load of the customer.
4. A method for controlling a load from a utility consumed by a facility of a customer in a demand response program that maintains a balance of supply from the utility and demand on the utility, comprising:
providing a processor;
collecting information about past behavior of a plurality of customers in a demand response (DR) program, wherein the collected information includes values for a plurality of factors;
developing a model of each of the customers of the plurality of customers from the information with the processor;
developing a ranking of each of the customers of the plurality of customers relative to other customers for each factor of two or more factors of the plurality of factors;
developing intersection groups by grouping customers with the same rankings in each factor of the two or more factors into an intersection group; and
developing a table having rows and columns with the intersection groups in either the rows or columns and the factors in the other of the rows or columns, wherein each cell at a cross-section of an intersection group and a factor is a value indicating a magnitude value of the intersection group for that factor;
selecting one or more intersection groups from the table to meet an objective of a DR event; and
sending a control signal to each facility of each customer in the selected one or more intersection groups to affect a load by the facilities on the utility in response to the DR event and maintain a balance of supply from the utility and demand on the utility
the two or more factors include recency, frequency, and load;
each customer is ranked relative to other customers for each of recency, frequency, and load; and
each customer is categorized into an intersection group according to the customer's ranking for frequency, load, and recency.
5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the DR event is for a load shed.
6. The method of claim 4 , further comprising:
determining recency, frequency and load from the information about past behavior of the customer in a DR program; and
wherein the model of the customer includes values for recency, frequency and load.
7. The method of claim 6 , wherein:
recency is a period of time since the customer last participated in a DR program;
frequency is a number of DR events that the customer participated in during a specific amount of time; and
load is a size of an energy load of the customer.
8. The method of claim 7 , wherein the two or more factors include recency, frequency and load of customers.