ONLINE ADVERTISEMENT FORECASTING USING TARGETED MESSAGES
Techniques for forecasting for an advertisement campaign are described. A personalized communication system can receive a request for an advertisement campaign on a social network. The request can have a member attribute and a time frame. The personalized communication system can access member data and behavior data from the social network. Additionally, the personalized communication system can determine a target group based on the member data and the member attribute. Furthermore, the personalized communication system can calculate a number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the member attribute, the time frame, and a frequency cap. Subsequently, the personalized communication system can forecast a number of messages for the first advertisement campaign based on the calculated number of unique visitors, the behavior data, and the time frame.
1 . A method comprising:
receiving a request for a first advertisement campaign on a social network, the request having a member attribute and a time frame;
accessing member data from the social network;
determining a target group in the social network based on the member data and the member attribute;
accessing behavior data for the target group, the behavior data including a last logon date to the social network for a member;
calculating a number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the member attribute, the time frame, and a frequency cap; and
forecasting, using a processor, a number of messages for the first advertisement campaign based on the calculated number of unique visitors, the behavior data, and the time frame.
2 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the time frame includes a start date and an end date, and wherein the forecasting includes:
calculating a discounting factor based on the start date, the end date, and the last logon date; and
calculating the number of messages based on the discounting factor and the number of unique visitors.
3 . The method of claim 2 , wherein the discounting factor is further based on the received member attribute.
4 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the frequency cap corresponds to a maximum number of messages that a member receives during a predetermined amount of time.
5 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the frequency cap is based on the member attribute.
6 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the request includes a geographic location, and wherein the target group is determined by:
determining a number of members living in the geographic location based on the assessed member data;
calculating a ratio of members in the social network having the member attribute based on the accessed member data; and
multiplying the number of members living in the geographic location by the ratio of members in the social network having the attribute.
7 . The method of claim 6 , wherein the calculated ratio is based on historical data of members living in the geographic location having the attribute.
8 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the time frame includes a first start date, and wherein calculating the number of unique visitors includes:
calculating the number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the frequency cap;
accessing a similar member attribute from a second advertisement campaign, the second advertisement campaign having a second start date before the first start date of the first campaign;
identifying a degree of similarity between the similar member attribute and the received member attribute;
in response to the identification, reducing the number in the target group based on the first start date, the second start date; and
updating the calculated number of unique visitors based on the reduced number in the target group.
9 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the number of unique visitors is a number of daily unique visitors.
10 . The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
causing a presentation of the number of messages fur the first advertisement campaign on a display of a device.
11 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the member attribute is a job title.
12 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the member attribute is a job skill.
13 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the frequency cap is predetermined by the social network.
14 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the behavior data includes mobile device usage data of a member, and wherein the number of potential members corresponds to mobile device users.
15 . The method of claim 1 , wherein the behavior data includes desktop device usage data of a member, and wherein the number of potential members corresponds to desktop device users.
16 . A social network system comprising:
a first database having profile data;
a second database having behavior data, the behavior data including a last logon date to a social network for a member;
one or more processors configured by a personalized communication module to:
receive a request for a first advertisement campaign on a social network, the request having a member attribute and a time frame;
access profile data from the first database;
determine a target group in the social network based on the profile data and the member attribute;
access the behavior data for the target group from the second database;
calculate a number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the member attribute, the time frame, and a frequency cap; and
forecast a number of messages for the first advertisement campaign based on the calculated number of unique visitors, the behavior data, and the time frame.
17 . The system of claim 16 , wherein the personalized communication module is further configured to:
calculate a discounting factor based on the start date, the end date, and the last logon date; and
calculate the number of messages based on the discounting factor and the number of unique visitors.
18 . The system of claim 16 , wherein the personalized communication module is further configured to:
determine a number of members living in the geographic location based on the assessed member data;
calculate a ratio of members in the social network having the member attribute based on the accessed member data; and
multiply the number of members living the geographic location by the ratio of members in the social network having the attribute.
19 . The system of claim 16 , wherein the personalized communication module is further configured to:
calculate the number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the frequency cap;
access a similar member attribute from a second advertisement campaign, the second advertisement campaign having a second start date before the first start date of the first campaign;
identify a degree of similarity between the similar member attribute and the received member attribute;
in response to the identification, reduce the number in the target group based on the first start date, the second start date; and
update the calculated number of unique visitors based on the reduced number in the target group.
20 . A non-transitory machine-readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed by one or more processors of a machine, cause the machine to perform operations comprising:
receiving a request for a first advertisement campaign on a social network, the request having a member attribute and a time frame;
accessing member data from the social network;
determining a target group in the social network based on the member data and the member attribute;
accessing behavior data for the target group, the behavior data including a last logon date to the social network for a member;
calculating a number of unique visitors to the social network from the target group based on the member attribute, the time frame, and a frequency cap; and
forecasting, using a processor, a number of messages for the first advertisement campaign based on the calculated number of unique visitors, the behavior data, and the time frame.