METHODS AND APPARATUS TO MANAGE MARKETING FORECASTING ACTIVITY
Methods and apparatus are disclosed to manage marketing forecasting activity. An example method includes retrieving, with a processor, a vetted sales forecast of a marketing objective, a corresponding set of drivers, and historical control data of the set of drivers, calculating, with the processor, (a) a first probability of not adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective and (b) a second probability of adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective, the first probability and the second probabilities based on the historical control data, overlaying default confidence limits associated with the vetted sales forecast on a graphical display, and in response to an adjustment via a graphical user interface to at least one of the default confidence limits, adjusting a frequency of displayed alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent at least one of overestimation or underestimation of adjustment of the set of drivers based on (a) the first probability, (b) the second probability and (c) a cost of adjusting the set of drivers.
1 . A method to display alerts in a sales forecast, comprising:
retrieving, with a processor, a vetted sales forecast of a marketing objective, a corresponding set of drivers, and historical control data of the set of drivers;
calculating, with the processor, (a) a first probability of not adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective and (b) a second probability of adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective, the first probability and the second probabilities based on the historical control data;
overlaying default confidence limits associated with the vetted sales forecast on a graphical display; and
in response to an adjustment via a graphical user interface to at least one of the default confidence limits, adjusting a frequency of displayed alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent at least one of overestimation or underestimation of adjustment of the set of drivers based on (a) the first probability, (b) the second probability and (c) a cost of adjusting the set of drivers.
2 . The method as defined in claim 1 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes (a) a cost of lost sales caused by not adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was necessary to meet the marketing objective and (b) a cost of wasted marketing resources caused by adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was not necessary to meet the marketing objective.
3 . The method as defined in claim 2 , further including determining a net expected loss based on a sum of (a) a product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.
4 . The method as defined in claim 3 , further including calculating a minimum value of the expected net loss based on an intersection of (a) a minimum value of the product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a minimum value of the product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.
5 . The method as defined in claim 4 , wherein the minimum value of the expected net loss identifies an alerting threshold that is used to adjust the frequency of alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent the at least one of overestimation or underestimation of the set of drivers.
6 . The method as defined in claim 1 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes at least one of a cost of lost share, a cost of lost margin, or a cost of lost revenue.
7 . The method as defined in claim 1 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes at least one of increasing promotional resources to meet the marketing objective, reducing unit prices to meet the marketing objective, or increasing unit distribution to meet the marketing objective.
8 . The method as defined in claim 1 , wherein the first probability of not adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective is associated with not spending resources on marketing efforts when such spending is necessary to meet the marketing objective.
9 . The method as defined in claim 1 , wherein the second probability of adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective is associated with spending resources on marketing efforts when such spending is not necessary to meet the marketing objective.
10 . An apparatus to display alerts in a sales forecast, comprising:
a plot generator to retrieve a vetted sales forecast of a marketing objective, a corresponding set of drivers;
a client history manager to retrieve historical control data of the set of drivers;
an action probability engine to calculate (a) a first probability of not adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective and (b) a second probability of adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective, the first probability and the second probability based on the historical control data;
a confidence limit extractor to overlay default confidence limits associated with the vetted sales forecast on a graphical display; and
an alerting level manager to, in response to an adjustment via a graphical user interface to at least one of the default confidence limits, adjust a frequency of displayed alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent at least one of overestimation or underestimation of adjustment of the set of drivers based on (a) the first probability, (b) the second probability and (c) a cost of adjusting the set of drivers.
11 . The apparatus as defined in claim 10 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes (a) a cost of lost sales caused by not adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was necessary to meet the marketing objective and (b) a cost of wasted marketing resources caused by adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was not necessary to meet the marketing objective.
12 . The apparatus as defined in claim 11 , further including a net loss engine to determine a net expected loss based on a sum of (a) a product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.
13 . The apparatus as defined in claim 12 , wherein the net loss engine is to calculate a minimum value of the expected net loss based on an intersection of (a) a minimum value of the product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a minimum value of the product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.
14 . The apparatus as defined in claim 13 , wherein the minimum value of the expected net loss identifies an alerting threshold that is used to adjust the frequency of alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent the at least one of overestimation or underestimation of the set of drivers.
15 . The apparatus as defined in claim 10 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes at least one of a cost of lost share, a cost of lost margin, or a cost of lost revenue.
16 . The apparatus as defined in claim 10 , wherein the cost of adjusting the set of drivers includes at least one of increasing promotional resources to meet the marketing objective, reducing unit prices to meet the marketing objective, or increasing unit distribution to meet the marketing objective.
17 . A tangible computer readable storage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to, at least:
retrieve a vetted sales forecast of a marketing objective, a corresponding set of drivers, and historical control data of the set of drivers;
calculate (a) a first probability of not adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective and (b) a second probability of adjusting the set of drivers to meet the marketing objective, the first probability and the second probabilities based on the historical control data;
overlay default confidence limits associated with the vetted sales forecast on a graphical display; and
in response to an adjustment via a graphical user interface to at least one of the default confidence limits, adjust a frequency of displayed alerts of the vetted sales forecast to prevent at least one of overestimation or underestimation of adjustment of the set of drivers based on (a) the first probability, (b) the second probability and (c) a cost of adjusting the set of drivers.
18 . The machine readable storage medium as defined in claim 17 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to identify the cost of adjusting the set of drivers as (a) a cost of lost sales caused by not adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was necessary to meet the marketing objective and (b) a cost of wasted marketing resources caused by adjusting the set of drivers when adjustment was not necessary to meet the marketing objective.
19 . The machine readable storage medium as defined in claim 18 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to determine a net expected loss based on a sum of (a) a product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.
20 . The machine readable storage medium as defined in claim 19 , wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to calculate a minimum value of the expected net loss based on an intersection of (a) a minimum value of the product of the cost of lost sales and the first probability and (b) a minimum value of the product of the cost of wasted marketing resources and the second probability.