System and method for physiological health simulation
Systems and methods for health and body simulations in order to predict numerous physiological parameters in a subject or a population of subjects based on the input of limited physiological data.
1. A method for predicting a time to diabetes onset in a subject, the method comprising:
(a) receiving, for the subject, subject parameter values comprising height, weight, age, gender, and serum HbA1c concentration at a first time;
(b) calculating initial parameter set values, comprising basal metabolic rate, excess caloric intake, EC50(FFA), and beta cell apoptosis rate, based on the subject parameter values by
(i) setting an age estimate to an age younger than the age determined in step (a), setting a weight estimate to a weight that is different from the weight determined in step (a), and setting a serum HbA1c estimate to a value different from the serum HbA1c concentration determined in step (a)
(ii) providing an initial estimate for each value in the initial parameter set values at the age estimate,
(iii) iteratively calculating the initial parameter set values, the weight estimate, and the serum HbA1c estimate, in a time-dependent manner in which the age estimate is increased by a first time step in each iteration from the age estimate set in step (b)(i) until the age estimate is substantially equal to the age, and
(iv) iteratively performing steps (i)-(iii) until the weight estimate is substantially equal to the weight and the serum HbA1c estimate is substantially equal to the serum HbA1c concentration when the age estimate is substantially equal to the age;
(c) iteratively calculating a future time and a projected serum HbA1c concentration using the initial parameter set calculated in step(b)(iii) and the subject parameter values, in a time-dependent manner in which the first time is increased by a second time step in each iteration until the projected serum HbA1c concentration at the future time is calculated to be greater than or equal to 6.5%,
(d) identifying the future time iteratively calculated in step (c) as the time to diabetes onset, and
(e) displaying the future time identified in step (d) as the predicted time for diabetes onset.
2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the age estimate set in step (b)(i) is at least one year less than the age.
3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the weight estimate set in step (b)(i) is less than the weight.
4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the serum HbA1c estimate set in step (b)(i) is less than 3%.
5. The method of claim 1 , wherein the first time step is 5-365 days.
6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the first time step is constant for all iterations.
7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the second time step is 5-365 days.
8. The method of claim 7 , wherein the second time step is constant for all iterations.