Attributing contributions of digital marketing campaigns towards conversions
Methods and systems for attributing contributions to digital marketing campaigns in achieving an action are described. In one or more implementations, first, second, and third order probabilities of a user taking the action are computed for each of a plurality of campaigns of a campaign path. Based on the probabilities, contributions are attributed to the campaigns of the campaign path in achieving the action.
1. In a digital marketing environment to attribute a contribution of a particular digital marketing campaign towards conversion, a method implemented by at least one computing device, the method comprising:
collecting, by the at least one computing device, data that describes interaction of a plurality of users with a plurality of digital marketing campaigns that include the particular digital marketing campaign, the data also describing whether conversion occurred by respective ones of the plurality of users;
determining, by the at least one computing device, a first order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the collected data, the first order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign;
determining, by the at least one computing device, a second order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the collected data, the second order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign and another digital marketing campaign of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the second order probability;
determining, by the at least one computing device, a third order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the collected data, the third order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign with two other digital marketing campaigns of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the third order probability; and
generating, by the at least one computing device, digital content attributing the contribution to the particular digital marketing campaign towards conversion, the contribution based on the first, second and third order probabilities.
2. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein the determining of the first order probability, the determining of the second order probability, the determining of the third order probability, and the generating of the digital content attributing the contribution are repeated for each of the digital marketing campaigns that are not the particular digital marketing campaign.
3. The method as described in claim 2 , wherein a sum of the contributions attributed to the plurality of digital marketing campaigns towards conversion equals one.
4. The method as described in claim 2 , further comprising comparing the contributions of the digital marketing campaigns against each other to determine a relative effectiveness of each of the digital marketing campaigns in achieving the conversion.
5. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein the first order probability is based on a number of said conversions relative to a number of non-conversions by the users responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign.
6. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein the second order probability is based on a number of conversions relative to a number of non-conversions by the users responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign and the other digital marketing campaign.
7. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein at least one of the digital marketing campaigns is an email.
8. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein at least one of the digital marketing campaigns is an advertisement included on a webpage.
9. The method as described in claim 1 , wherein the conversion includes navigation to a web site or purchase of a product or service.
10. In a digital marketing environment to attribute contributions in achieving conversion of a plurality of digital marketing campaigns that are exposed to a plurality of users, a system comprising:
a contribution distribution module implemented at least partially in hardware to generate digital content attributing contributions to the digital marketing campaigns in achieving the conversion based on first, second and third order probabilities, the contribution distribution module comprising:
a first order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the first order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using data that describes interaction of the users with the digital marketing campaigns and whether conversion occurred by respective ones of the users, the first order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to respective said digital marketing campaigns;
a second order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the second order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using the data, the second order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to the respective said digital marketing campaigns in conjunction with another digital marketing campaign of the digital marketing campaigns, the second order probabilities determined using a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the respective said digital marketing campaigns to respective said second order probabilities; and
a third order module implemented at least partially in hardware to determine the third order probabilities of the digital marketing campaigns using the data, the third order probabilities indicative of likelihoods of conversion responsive to exposure to the respective said digital marketing campaigns in conjunction with two other digital marketing campaigns of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the third order probabilities determined using a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the respective said digital marketing campaigns to respective said third order probabilities.
11. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein the conversion includes navigations to a web site or purchases of a product or service.
12. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein at least one of the digital marketing campaigns is an email.
13. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein at least one of the digital marketing campaigns is an advertisement included on a webpage.
14. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein the attributed contributions are indicative of relative effectiveness of the respective said digital marketing campaigns in achieving the conversion.
15. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein a sum of the contributions attributed to the digital marketing campaigns equals one.
16. The system as described in claim 10 , wherein the data describes which of the users interacted with which ones of the digital marketing campaigns and, if conversions occurred by respective ones of the users, when the conversions occurred by the respective ones of the users.
17. One or more computer-readable storage media that are non-transitory and comprising instructions stored thereon that, responsive to execution by a computing device, causes the computing device to attribute a contribution to a particular digital marketing campaign in achieving conversion, the contribution attributed by performing operations comprising:
determining a first order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from data that describes interaction of a plurality of users with a plurality of digital marketing campaigns that includes the particular digital marketing campaign, the first order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign;
determining a second order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the data, the second order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign and another digital marketing campaign of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the second order probability;
determining a third order probability of the particular digital marketing campaign from the collected data, the third order probability indicative of a likelihood of conversion responsive to exposure to the particular digital marketing campaign with two other digital marketing campaigns of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns, the determining including a term that discounts multiplicity of counts of the particular digital marketing campaign in the third order probability; and
generating digital content attributing the contribution to the particular digital marketing campaign in achieving conversion, the contribution based on the first, second, and third order probabilities.
18. The one or more computer-readable storage media as described in claim 17 , wherein the determining the first order probability, the determining the second order probability, the determining the third order probability, and the generating the digital content are repeated for each of the plurality of digital marketing campaigns.
19. The one or more computer-readable storage media as described in claim 18 , wherein the contributions attributed to the plurality of digital marketing campaigns sum to one.
20. The one or more computer-readable storage media as described in claim 17 , the operations further comprising comparing the contributions of the digital marketing campaigns against each other to determine a relative effectiveness of each of the digital marketing campaigns in achieving the conversion.