Power control system with battery power setpoint optimization using one-step-ahead prediction

1. A predictive power control system comprising:

a battery configured to store and discharge electric power;

a battery power inverter configured to control an amount of the electric power stored or discharged from the battery;

a controller configured to

receive a signal from a photovoltaic field related to a power output of the photovoltaic field,

predict a future power output of the photovoltaic field based on the signal by

generating a state-space model that represents the power output of the photovoltaic field, and

identifying parameters of the state-space model using an autoregressive moving average technique based on a history of values of the power output of the photovoltaic field,

predict a future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field based on the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field, and

use the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field and the predicted future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field to determine a setpoint for the battery power inverter.

2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter in order to comply with a ramp rate limit.

3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to determine a current state-of-charge of the battery and use the current state-of-charge of the battery to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter.

4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to predict the future power output of the photovoltaic field by:

using a Kalman filter in combination with the identified state-space model to predict the future power output of the photovoltaic field at a next instant in time.

5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the controller is configured to:

use the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field and the predicted future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field to determine that a portion of the power output of the photovoltaic field must be stored or limited in order to comply with a ramp rate limit;

determine whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery; and

generate a ramp rate control power setpoint based on whether the current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below the state-of-charge setpoint, the ramp rate control power setpoint indicating an amount of power to store in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine that the current state-of-charge of the battery is below the state-of-charge setpoint; and

generate the ramp rate control power setpoint based on an amount by which the state-of-charge setpoint exceeds the current state-of-charge of the battery.

7. The system of claim 5 , wherein the controller is configured to:

determine that the current state-of-charge of the battery is above the state-of-charge setpoint or within a range of values defined by an upper setpoint limit and a lower setpoint limit;

determine a minimum amount of power required to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit; and

generate the ramp rate control power setpoint by setting the ramp rate control power setpoint to the determined minimum amount of power to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

8. A method for operating a battery power inverter, the method comprising:

receiving a signal from a photovoltaic field related to a power output of the photovoltaic field;

predicting a future power output of the photovoltaic field based on the signal by

generating a state-space model that represents the power output of the photovoltaic field, and

identifying parameters of the state-space model using an autoregressive moving average technique based on a history of values of the power output of the photovoltaic field;

predicting a future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field based on the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field;

determining a setpoint for the battery power inverter using the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field and the predicted future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field; and

using the determined setpoint for the battery power inverter to control an amount of electric power stored or discharged from the battery by the battery power inverter.

9. The method of claim 8 , wherein determining the setpoint for the battery power inverter comprises generating the setpoint to ensure compliance with a ramp rate limit.

10. The method of claim 8 , further comprising determining a current state-of-charge of the battery and using the current state-of-charge of the battery to determine the setpoint for the battery power inverter.

11. The method of claim 8 , wherein predicting the future power output of the photovoltaic field comprises:

using a Kalman filter in combination with the identified state-space model to predict the future power output of the photovoltaic field at a next instant in time.

12. The method of claim 8 , further comprising:

using the predicted future power output of the photovoltaic field and the predicted future ramp rate for the power output of the photovoltaic field to determine that a portion of the power output of the photovoltaic field must be stored or limited in order to comply with a ramp rate limit;

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery; and

generating a ramp rate control power setpoint based on whether the current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below the state-of-charge setpoint, the ramp rate control power setpoint indicating an amount of power to store in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.

13. The method of claim 12 , wherein:

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery comprises determining that the current state-of-charge of the battery is below the state-of-charge setpoint; and

generating the ramp rate control power setpoint comprises generating the ramp rate control power setpoint based on an amount by which the state-of-charge setpoint exceeds the current state-of-charge of the battery.

14. The method of claim 12 , wherein:

determining whether a current state-of-charge of the battery is above or below a state-of-charge setpoint for the battery comprises determining that the current state-of-charge of the battery is above the state-of-charge setpoint or within a range of values defined by an upper setpoint limit and a lower setpoint limit; and

generating the ramp rate control power setpoint comprises:

determining a minimum amount of power required to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit; and

setting the ramp rate control power setpoint to the determined minimum amount of power to be stored in the battery in order to comply with the ramp rate limit.