Intelligent controller providing time to target state

1. A method of estimating a time-to-temperature for a thermostat controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system in an enclosure, the method comprising:

receiving a target temperature for the enclosure;

instantiating an HVAC cycle to bring the temperature of the enclosure to the target temperature;

receiving a first time representing an estimated time to transition the temperature in the enclosure to target temperature by the HVAC system, wherein the first time is estimated based at least in part on a plurality of historical time and temperature values recorded from one or more previous HVAC cycles;

causing the first time to be displayed on a user interface associated with the thermostat;

receiving, after causing the first time to be displayed, a second time based at least in part on a trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle, wherein the first time and the second time are computed on a server that is separate from the thermostat, and the first time and the second time are transmitted to the thermostat from the server; and

causing the user interface to be updated to display the second time before an end of the HVAC cycle.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

the first time is estimated based at least in part on at least one external factor selected from a group consisting of: an outside temperature, an outside sunlight amount, an outside wind velocity, and a time of day.

3. The method of claim 1 , further comprising computing a weighted combination of the first time and the second time.

4. The method of claim 3 , wherein:

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the first time by a first weighting factor to produce a first product;

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the second time by a second weighting factor to produce a second product; and

a sum of the first weighting factor and the second weighting factor is 1.0.

5. The method of claim 3 , wherein:

the first weighting factor is initially set to a larger value than the second weighting factor; and

the first weighting factor is incrementally decreased while the second weighting factor is correspondingly incrementally increased as the enclosure transitions to the target temperature.

6. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

computing the second time comprises selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models.

7. The method of claim 6 , wherein selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models comprises:

first selecting a set of candidate models based on data collected during time periods with characteristics similar to characteristics of a current time interval; and

selecting, from among the set of candidate models, a model that fits recorded temperature-versus-time data points better than other candidate models.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein computing the second time comprises generating a model based on the trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein:

the user interface associated with the thermostat is located on a smart phone.

10. A thermostat for estimating a time-to-temperature when controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system in an enclosure, the thermostat comprising:

one or more processors;

one or more memory devices comprising instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:

receiving a target temperature for the enclosure;

instantiating an HVAC cycle to bring the temperature of the enclosure to the target temperature;

receiving a first time representing an estimated time to transition the temperature in the enclosure to target temperature by the HVAC system, wherein the first time is estimated based at least in part on a plurality of historical time and temperature values recorded from one or more previous HVAC cycles, wherein the first time is computed on a server that is separate from the thermostat, and the first time is transmitted to the thermostat from the server;

causing the first time to be displayed on a user interface associated with the thermostat;

receiving, after causing the first time to be displayed, a second time based at least in part on a trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle, wherein the second time is computed on the server, and the second time is transmitted to the thermostat from the server; and

causing the user interface to be updated to display the second time before an end of the HVAC cycle.

11. The thermostat of claim 10 , wherein:

the first time is estimated based at least in part on at least one external factor selected from a group consisting of: an outside temperature, an outside sunlight amount, an outside wind velocity, and a time of day.

12. The thermostat of claim 10 , wherein

the user interface displays a weighted combination of the first time and the second time.

13. The thermostat of claim 12 , wherein:

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the first time by a first weighting factor to produce a first product;

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the second time by a second weighting factor to produce a second product; and

a sum of the first weighting factor and the second weighting factor is 1.0.

14. The thermostat of claim 12 , wherein:

the first weighting factor is initially set to a larger value than the second weighting factor; and

the first weighting factor is incrementally decreased while the second weighting factor is correspondingly incrementally increased as the enclosure transitions to the target temperature.

15. The thermostat of claim 10 , wherein:

computing or receiving the second time comprises selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models.

16. The thermostat of claim 15 , wherein selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models comprises:

first selecting a set of candidate models based on data collected during time periods with characteristics similar to characteristics of a current time interval; and

selecting, from among the set of candidate models, a model that fits recorded temperature-versus-time data points better than the other candidate models.

17. The thermostat of claim 10 , wherein the second time is computed by generating a model based on the trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle.

18. The thermostat of claim 10 , wherein:

the user interface associated with the thermostat is located on a smart phone.

19. A method of estimating a time-to-temperature for a thermostat controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system in an enclosure, the method comprising:

receiving a target temperature for the enclosure;

instantiating an HVAC cycle to bring the temperature of the enclosure to the target temperature;

computing or receiving a first time representing an estimated time to transition the temperature in the enclosure to target temperature by the HVAC system, wherein the first time is estimated based at least in part on a plurality of historical time and temperature values recorded from one or more previous HVAC cycles;

causing the first time to be displayed on a user interface associated with the thermostat;

computing or receiving, after causing the first time to be displayed, a second time based at least in part on a trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle; and

causing the user interface to be updated to display a weighted combination of the first time and the second time before an end of the HVAC cycle.

20. The method of claim 19 , wherein:

the first time is estimated based at least in part on at least one external factor selected from a group consisting of: an outside temperature, an outside sunlight amount, an outside wind velocity, and a time of day.

21. The method of claim 19 , wherein:

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the first time by a first weighting factor to produce a first product;

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the second time by a second weighting factor to produce a second product; and

a sum of the first weighting factor and the second weighting factor is 1.0.

22. The method of claim 21 , wherein:

the first weighting factor is initially set to a larger value than the second weighting factor; and

the first weighting factor is incrementally decreased while the second weighting factor is correspondingly incrementally increased as the enclosure transitions to the target temperature.

23. The method of claim 19 , wherein:

computing the second time comprises selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models.

24. The method of claim 23 , wherein selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models comprises:

first selecting a set of candidate models based on data collected during time periods with characteristics similar to characteristics of a current time interval; and

selecting, from among the set of candidate models, a model that fits recorded temperature-versus-time data points better than other candidate models.

25. The method of claim 19 , wherein computing the second time comprises generating a model based on the trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle.

26. The method of claim 19 , wherein:

the first time and the second time are computed on a server that is separate from the thermostat, and the first time and the second time are transmitted to the thermostat from the server.

27. The method of claim 19 , wherein:

the user interface associated with the thermostat is located on a smart phone.

28. A thermostat for estimating a time-to-temperature when controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system in an enclosure, the thermostat comprising:

one or more processors;

one or more memory devices comprising instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to perform operations comprising:

receiving a target temperature for the enclosure;

instantiating an HVAC cycle to bring the temperature of the enclosure to the target temperature;

computing or receiving a first time representing an estimated time to transition the temperature in the enclosure to target temperature by the HVAC system, wherein the first time is estimated based at least in part on a plurality of historical time and temperature values recorded from one or more previous HVAC cycles;

causing the first time to be displayed on a user interface associated with the thermostat;

computing or receiving, after causing the first time to be displayed, a second time based at least in part on a trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle; and

causing the user interface to be updated to display a weighted combination of the first time and the second time before an end of the HVAC cycle.

29. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein:

the first time is estimated based at least in part on at least one external factor selected from a group consisting of: an outside temperature, an outside sunlight amount, an outside wind velocity, and a time of day.

30. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein:

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the first time by a first weighting factor to produce a first product;

the weighted combination comprises multiplying the second time by a second weighting factor to produce a second product; and

a sum of the first weighting factor and the second weighting factor is 1.0.

31. The thermostat of claim 30 , wherein:

the first weighting factor is initially set to a larger value than the second weighting factor; and

the first weighting factor is incrementally decreased while the second weighting factor is correspondingly incrementally increased as the enclosure transitions to the target temperature.

32. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein:

computing or receiving the second time comprises selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models.

33. The thermostat of claim 32 , wherein selecting a model from among two or more preexisting models comprises:

first selecting a set of candidate models based on data collected during time periods with characteristics similar to characteristics of a current time interval; and

selecting, from among the set of candidate models, a model that fits recorded temperature-versus-time data points better than other candidate models.

34. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein computing or receiving the second time comprises generating a model based on the trajectory of time and temperature values during the HVAC cycle.

35. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein:

the first time and the second time are computed on a server that is separate from the thermostat, and the first time and the second time are transmitted to the thermostat from the server.

36. The thermostat of claim 28 , wherein:

the user interface associated with the thermostat is located on a smart phone.