Thermal modeling technology

1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:

receiving, over time, monitoring data collected by a monitoring system that includes a control unit configured to control a heating or cooling system located at a site, the monitoring data comprising temperature data measured inside the site, mode data, and state data;

receiving weather data descriptive of weather at a location of the site;

aligning, over time intervals, the received temperature data, mode data, and state data with the received weather data;

determining, based on the aligned data, an internal heat gain for the site, the internal heat gain representing an amount of heat generated at the site irrespective of the heating or cooling system;

determining a thermal product for the site;

determining a thermal potential for the heating or cooling system based on the internal heat gain and the thermal product, the thermal potential representing a removal of heat in the site in response to the heating or cooling system being in an on state;

generating, based on the internal heat gain, the thermal product, and the thermal potential, a thermal model for the site; and

providing, as output, the generated thermal model.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 :

wherein determining the thermal product for the site comprises:

determining, based on the received temperature data, mode data, and state data, a thermal product for the site, the thermal product representing a product of a thermal capacitance and a thermal resistance of the site, and

wherein determining the thermal potential for the heating or cooling system comprises determining, based on the aligned data, the internal heat gain, and the thermal product, the thermal potential for the heating or cooling system, the thermal potential further representing an increase or decrease in a rate of the removal of heat within the site when the heating or cooling system is in the on state, in comparison to when the heating or cooling system is in the off state.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 :

wherein determining the thermal product for the site comprises determining, based on the received temperature data, mode data, and state data, a thermal product for the site, the thermal product representing a product of a thermal capacitance and a thermal resistance of the site.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein generating the thermal model for the site comprises generating one or more thermal models for the site, the one or more thermal models including at least one of a simple thermal model and a hybrid thermal model.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising determining, based on the aligned data, an efficiency for the heating or cooling system located at the site,

wherein generating the thermal model for the site comprises generating the thermal model based on the efficiency for the heating or cooling system.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the monitoring system that includes the control unit is a connected thermostat located at the site and wherein receiving the temperature data, the mode data, and the state data comprises receiving, over time and from the connected thermostat, the temperature data, the mode data, and the state data.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising determining a steady state model for the site,

wherein generating the thermal model for the site comprises generating the thermal model based on the steady state model for the site.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

receiving updated temperature data measured inside the site;

receiving updated weather data descriptive of weather at the location of the site;

aligning, over time intervals, the updated weather data with the updated temperature data; and

updating, based on the aligned updated data, the generated thermal model.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 8 , further comprising:

analyzing the aligned updated data against one or more of the generated thermal models and previously aligned site and weather data; and

updating, based on the analysis, the generated thermal model for the site.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein receiving, over time, the monitoring data comprises receiving the monitoring data from the monitoring system that includes the control unit configured to control the heating or cooling system located at the site.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein receiving, over time, the monitoring data comprises receiving the monitoring data from a server that communicates with the monitoring system that includes the control unit configured to control the heating or cooling system located at the site.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

accessing the generated thermal model;

analyzing the generated thermal model; and

performing, based on the analysis, an action related to the site.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 12 , wherein performing the action includes performing one or more of providing the generated thermal model as output to a graphical display, providing a recommendation of an adjustment to a schedule of the control unit, automatically adjusting the schedule of the control unit, providing a recommendation of an adjustment to the state data of the heating or cooling system, providing a recommendation of an adjustment to a characteristic of the site, and providing runtime or cost forecasting for the heating or cooling system in light of forecasted weather and settings for the control unit.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining, based on the aligned data, an efficiency directed to the site;

determining whether the efficiency satisfies a predetermined efficiency rule; and

in response to determining that the predetermined efficiency rule is not satisfied, performing an action.

15. The computer-implemented method of claim 14 , wherein determining the efficiency directed to the site comprises determining one or more of a heating or cooling system efficiency for the site, a thermal product efficiency for the site, and an internal heat gain efficiency for the site.

16. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

accessing characteristics associated with each of multiple sites;

identifying, based on the accessed characteristics, one or more subsets of the multiple sites that have similar characteristics;

grouping the multiple sites into the one or more subsets of the multiple sites that have similar characteristics;

accessing thermal models corresponding to sites grouped in a particular subset of the one or more subsets; and

generating, based on the accessed thermal models, a representative thermal model for the particular subset of sites.

17. The computer-implemented method of claim 16 , further comprising:

identifying a new site for which a thermal model has not been generated;

in response to identifying the new site for which a thermal model has not been generated, determining characteristics associated with the new site;

determining, based on the determined characteristics of the new site, that the new site has characteristics similar to sites in the particular subset; and

selecting, based on the determination that the new site has characteristics similar to sites in the particular subset, the representative thermal model to use for the new site.

18. The computer-implemented method of claim 17 , further comprising:

analyzing the representative thermal model that has been selected for the new site; and

performing, based on the analysis of the representative thermal model, an action related to the new site.

19. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising determining, based on the aligned data, a deadband of the control unit, the deadband including, for a set temperature, an upper temperature threshold above the set temperature and a lower temperature threshold below the set temperature between which the control unit cycles in controlling the heating or cooling system to meet the set temperature.

20. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein determining the internal heat gain for the site comprises determining a model of a dynamic, physical quantity that is parameterized by time for the site.

21. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein determining the internal heat gain for the site comprises determining heat generation characteristics of the site over a predetermined period of time, the heat generation characteristics being distinct from the heating or cooling system.

22. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising:

analyzing the internal heat gain for the site;

identifying, based on the analysis, periods of time during which the internal heat gain for the site is greater than a predetermined internal heat gain threshold; and

performing one or more actions to address the internal heat gain.

23. A system for thermal modeling, comprising:

a monitoring system that includes a control unit configured to control a heating or cooling system located at a site; and

one or more computers in communication with the monitoring system and one or more storage devices storing instructions that are operable, when executed by the one or more computers, to cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:

receiving, over time, monitoring data collected by the monitoring system, the monitoring data comprising temperature data measured inside the site, mode data, and state data,

receiving weather data descriptive of weather at a location of the site,

aligning, over time intervals, the received temperature data, mode data, and state data with the received weather data,

determining, based on the aligned data, an internal heat gain for the site, the internal heat gain representing an amount of heat generated at the site irrespective of the heating or cooling system,

determining a thermal product for the site;

determining a thermal potential for the heating or cooling system based on the internal heat gain and the thermal product, the thermal potential representing a removal of heat in the site in response to the heating or cooling system being in an on state,

generating, based on the internal heat gain, the thermal product, and the thermal potential, a thermal model for the site, and

providing, as output, the generated thermal model.

24. A non-transitory computer-readable medium storing software comprising instructions executable by one or more computers which, upon such execution cause the one or more computers to perform operations comprising:

receiving, over time, monitoring data collected by a monitoring system that includes a control unit configured to control a heating or cooling system located at a site, the monitoring data comprising temperature data measured inside the site, mode data, and state data;

receiving weather data descriptive of weather at a location of the site;

aligning, over time intervals, the received temperature data, mode data, and state data with the received weather data;

determining, based on the aligned data, an internal heat gain for the site, the internal heat gain representing an amount of heat generated at the site irrespective of the heating or cooling system;

determining a thermal product for the site;

determining a thermal potential for the heating or cooling system based on the internal heat gain and the thermal product, the thermal potential representing a removal of heat in the site in response to the heating or cooling system being in an on state;

generating, based on the internal heat gain, the thermal product, and the thermal potential, a thermal model for the site; and

providing, as output, the generated thermal model.