Computing estimated value of providing service among geographical regions
A system predicts a value estimate for a user who provides a service that involves moving among geographical regions (e.g., a transportation service). The system determines the value estimate by identifying a sequence of time periods, each time period having an associated set of geographical regions. Possible transitions between geographical regions in different time periods are analyzed, for example, using statistical or machine-learned models, to determine likelihoods that the user will move between the geographical regions from one time period to another, and to determine expected values for a transition. Such models may be trained or developed using historical service data and user profile data stored by the system. Transitions are analyzed over a sequence of time periods to determine accumulated values associated with estimated overall values for each geographical region. The system predicts an overall value estimate for the user based on the accumulated values.
1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
selecting one or more of a sequence of time periods from a set of time periods, each time period having an associated set of geographical regions;
traversing the one or more of a sequence of time periods from an ending time period to a starting time period in reverse chronological order:
generating, for each time period, an accumulated value for each geographical region associated with the time period, wherein the accumulated value is based on a set of transitions, each transition being from a geographical region associated with a time period to a geographical region associated with a subsequent time period, and further based on one or more of:
expected values of the transitions,
probabilities of the transitions, and
accumulated values of the geographical regions associated with the preceding time period;
generating a value estimate based on the generated accumulated values, wherein the generation includes accounting for incentives offered to the user during the time period; and
presenting the value estimate to a user of a user device.
2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the sequence of time periods spans a time range, the beginning and ending times of which are provided as input by the user of the user device.
3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the user of the user device provides a starting region as an input.
4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising repeating the traversal and determining an updated value estimate for the user while the user is operating within the time range, the updated value estimate accounting for the current location of the user device.
5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the expected values of the transitions, and the probabilities of the transitions are determined using models based on historical and real-time service data.
6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein geographical regions associated with a time period are geographical regions that it is possible for the user to transition to, by the time period.
7. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer program instructions executable by one or more processors of a system to perform steps comprising:
selecting one or more of a sequence of time periods from a set of time periods, each time period having an associated set of geographical regions;
traversing the one or more of a sequence of time periods from an ending time period to a starting time period in reverse chronological order:
generating, for each time period, an accumulated value for each geographical region associated with the time period, wherein the accumulated value is based on a set of transitions, each transition being from a geographical region associated with a time period to a geographical region associated with a subsequent time period, and further based on one or more of:
expected values of the transitions,
probabilities of the transitions, and
accumulated values of the geographical regions associated with the preceding time period;
generating a value estimate based on the generated accumulated values, wherein the generation includes accounting for incentives offered to the user during the time period; and
presenting the value estimate to a user of a user device.
8. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7 , wherein the sequence of time periods spans a time range, the beginning and ending times of which are provided as input by the user of the user device.
9. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7 , wherein the user of the user device provides a starting region as an input.
10. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7 , further comprising repeating the traversal and determining an updated value estimate for the user while the user is operating within the time range, the updated value estimate accounting for the current location of the user device.
11. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7 , wherein the expected values of the transitions, and the probabilities of the transitions are determined using models based on historical and real-time service data.
12. The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 7 , wherein geographical regions associated with a time period are geographical regions that it is possible for the user to transition to, by the time period.
13. A computer system comprising:
one or more computer processors for executing computer program instructions; and
a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing instructions executable by the one or more computer processors to perform steps comprising:
selecting one or more of a sequence of time periods from a set of time periods, each time period having an associated set of geographical regions;
traversing the one or more of a sequence of time periods from an ending time period to a starting time period in reverse chronological order:
generating, for each time period, an accumulated value for each geographical region associated with the time period, wherein the accumulated value is based on a set of transitions, each transition being from a geographical region associated with a time period to a geographical region associated with the subsequent time period, and further based on one or more of:
expected values of the transitions, probabilities of the transitions, and
accumulated values of the geographical regions associated with the preceding time period;
generating a value estimate based on the generated accumulated values, wherein the generation includes accounting for incentives offered to the user during the time period; and
presenting the value estimate to a user of a user device.
14. The computer system of claim 13 , wherein the sequence of time periods spans a time range, the beginning and ending times of which are provided as input by the user of the user device.
15. The computer system of claim 13 , wherein the user of the user device provides a starting region as an input.
16. The computer system of claim 13 , wherein the expected values of the transitions, and the probabilities of the transitions are determined using models based on historical and real-time service data.
17. The computer-system of claim 13 , wherein geographical regions associated with a time period are geographical regions that it is possible for the user to transition to, by the time period.