DIGITAL EXPERIENCE TARGETING USING BAYESIAN APPROACH
Digital experience targeting techniques are disclosed which serve digital experiences that have a high probability of conversion with regard to a given user visit profile. In some examples, a method may include predicting a probability of each digital experience in a campaign being served based on a user visit profile and an indication that a user exhibiting the user visit profile is going to convert, predicting a probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served based on the user visit profile and an indication that the user exhibiting the user visit profile is not going to convert, and deriving, for the user visit profile, a probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign. The probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign for the user visit profile may be derived using a Bayesian framework.
1 . A system to provide targeting of digital experiences having high probability of conversion, the system comprising:
one or more processors;
a conversion multi-class classifier at least one of controllable and executable by the one or more processors, the conversion multi-class classifier having a first input to receive a user visit profile and a second input to receive an indication that a user exhibiting the user visit profile is going to convert, the conversion multi-class classifier configured to predict a probability of each digital experience in a campaign being served;
a non-conversion multi-class classifier at least one of controllable and executable by the one or more processors, the non-conversion multi-class classifier having a first input to receive the user visit profile and a second input to receive an indication that the user exhibiting the user visit profile is not going to convert, the non-conversion multi-class classifier configured to predict a probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served; and
a conversion likelihood estimator at least one of controllable and executable by the one or more processors, and configured to derive, for the user visit profile and based on the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier, a probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign.
2 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion likelihood estimator is configured to mathematically combine the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier to derive the probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign.
3 . The system of claim 2 , wherein to combine the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier includes use of a Bayes' theorem.
4 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier is trained using only conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign.
5 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the non-conversion multi-class classifier is trained using only non-conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign.
6 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using random forests.
7 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using neural networks.
8 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using gradient boosted trees.
9 . The system of claim 1 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using decision trees.
10 . The system of claim 1 , further comprising a dimensionality reduction module at least one of controllable and executable by the one or more processors, and configured to reduce dimensionality of training data for use in training the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier.
11 . A computer-implemented method to provide targeting of digital experiences having high probability of conversion, the method comprising:
predicting, by a conversion multi-class classifier based on a first input to receive a user visit profile and a second input to receive an indication that a user exhibiting the user visit profile is going to convert, a probability of each digital experience in a campaign being served;
predicting, by a non-conversion multi-class classifier and based on a first input to receive the user visit profile and a second input to receive an indication that the user exhibiting the user visit profile is not going to convert, a probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served; and
deriving, by a conversion likelihood estimator for the user visit profile and based on the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier, a probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign.
12 . The method of claim 11 , wherein deriving the probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign includes mathematically combining, using a Bayes' theorem, the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier.
13 . The method of claim 11 , further comprising:
training the conversion multi-class classifier using only conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign; and
training the non-conversion multi-class classifier using only non-conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign.
14 . The method of claim 11 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using one of random forests, neural networks, gradient boosted trees, and decision trees.
15 . The method of claim 11 , further comprising reducing dimensionality of training data for use in training the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier.
16 . A computer program product including one or more non-transitory machine readable media encoded with instructions that when executed by one or more processors cause a process of providing targeting of digital experiences having high probability of conversion to be carried out, the process comprising:
predicting, based on a user visit profile and an indication that a user exhibiting the user visit profile is going to convert, a probability of each digital experience in a campaign being served;
predicting, based on the user visit profile and an indication that the user exhibiting the user visit profile is not going to convert, a probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served; and
deriving, for the user visit profile, a probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign.
17 . The computer program product of claim 16 , wherein the probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served based on the user visit profile and the indication that a user exhibiting the user visit profile is going to convert being generated using a conversion multi-class classifier, and the probability of each digital experience in the campaign being served based on the user visit profile and the indication that the user exhibiting the user visit profile is not going to convert being generated using a non-conversion multi-class classifier, the conversion multi-class classifier being distinct from the non-conversion multi-class classifier.
18 . The computer program product of claim 17 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier being trained using only conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign, and the non-conversion multi-class classifier being trained using only non-conversion data for digital experiences in the campaign.
19 . The computer program product of claim 17 , wherein the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier are each implemented using one of random forests, neural networks, gradient boosted trees, and decision trees.
20 . The computer program product of claim 17 , wherein deriving the probability of conversion for each digital experience in the campaign includes mathematically combining, using a Bayes' theorem, the probabilities generated by the conversion multi-class classifier and the non-conversion multi-class classifier.