Method of predicting wear on tubes of steam generator
View Patent ↗A method predicts an amount of wear that is expected to occur on the tubes of a steam generator as a result of vibration against another structure within the steam generator. The method includes determining a volumetric amount of material that has been worn from a location on a tube over a duration of time and employing that volume as a function of time to determine the volume of material of the tube wall that is predicted to be worn from the tube or another tube at a future time. The volumetric-based analysis enables more accurately prediction of the wear depth at a future time. This enables the plugging of only those tubes that are determined from a volumetric analysis to be in risk of breach at the future time, thus slowing the rate at which tubes of a steam generator will be plugged.
1. A method of predicting an amount of wear that is expected to occur on a tube of a plurality of tubes of a steam generator comprising:
determining a volumetric amount of material that has been worn from a location on the tube over a duration of time;
employing the volumetric amount as a function of time to determine a volume of material of the tube that is predicted to be worn from the tube at a future time; and
plugging the tube in response to a predicted wear depth based upon the volume of material meeting a predetermined threshold.
2. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
determining, a current wear state at a current time when the volumetric amount of material has been worn from the location, the current time being prior to the future time; and
performing the plugging at a time subsequent to the current time but prior to the future time.
3. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
determining, a current wear state at a current time when the volumetric amount of material has been worn from the location, the future time being a period of time subsequent to the current time; and
calculating the volume of material by adding together the volumetric amount and a proportional portion of the volumetric amount at corresponds with the ratio of the period of time to the duration of time.
4. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:
performing on the steam generator an inspection operation on fewer than all of the tubes of the plurality of tubes wherein a given tube other than the tube is uninspected during the inspection operation;
predicting a predicted wear condition on the given tube that includes a predicted volumetric amount of material that is predicted to be worn from a given location on the given tube at the future time, the predicted volumetric amount being based at least ire part upon the volumetric amount;
determining based at least in part upon the predicted wear condition a calculated wear depth that is predicted to exist at the given location at the future time; and
operating the steam generator without plugging the given tube responsive to the calculated wear depth not meeting a predetermined threshold.
5. A method of predicting an amount of wear hat is expected to occur on one or more tubes from among a plurality of tubes of a steam generator, the method comprising:
determining a volumetric amount of material that has been worn from a location can a tube from among the plurality of tubes over a duration of time;
determining a predicted wear state on one of the tube and another tube from among the plurality of tubes that is predicted to exist on the one of the tube and the another tube at a future time based at least in part upon the volumetric amount and the duration of time; and
plugging the one of the tube and another tube responsive to the predicted wear state meeting a predetermined threshold.
6. The method of claim 5 , further comprising:
determining a current wear state at a current time when the volumetric amount of material has been worn from the location on the tube prior to the future time; and
performing the plugging at a time subsequent to the current time but prior to the future time.
7. The method of claim 5 , further comprising:
determining a current wear state at a current time, the future time being a period of time subsequent to the current time; and
determining a predicted Near state on the tube by adding together the volumetric amount and a proportional portion of the volumetric amount that corresponds with the ratio of the period of time to the duration of time.
8. The method of claim 5 , further comprising:
performing on the steam generator an inspection operation on fewer than all of the tubes of the plurality of tubes wherein a given tube other than the tube and the another tube is uninspected during the inspection operation; and
predicting a predicted wear condition on the given tube that includes a predicted volumetric amount of material that is predicted to be worn from a given location on the given tube at the future time, the predicted volumetric amount being based at least in part upon the volumetric amount and the duration of time.
9. The method of claim 8 , further comprising determining based at least part upon the predicted wear condition a calculated wear depth that is predicted to exist at the given location at the future time.
10. The method of claim 9 , further comprising operating the steam generator without plugging the given tube responsive to the calculated wear depth not meeting a predetermined threshold.